Voters Don't Care About the Economy as Much as They Think They Do

[Nevilledog]

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/05/biden-economy-election/678431/

No paywall link
https://archive.li/7NknC

Joe Biden is, at the moment, losing his reelection campaign. And he is doing so while presiding over the strongest economy the United States has ever experienced.

The jobless rate is below 4 percent, as it has been for nearly two and a half years. Wage growth is moderating, but it is higher than it was at any point during the Obama administration; overall, Biden has overseen stronger pay increases than any president since Richard Nixon. Inflation has cooled off considerably, meaning that consumers’ purchasing power is strong.

Yet Biden’s approval rating is below 40 percent. His disapproval rating is 56 percent. Donald Trump is beating him handily in most key swing states. And there’s a chance that Trump might edge out Biden in the popular vote, particularly if he continues to expand his popularity with Black and Latino voters in blue and purple states.

This reality has engendered panic among many Democratic campaign operatives, and no small degree of dismay too. What does it mean if Biden can’t win a campaign as an incumbent in an economy like this—during an election in which most Americans say the economy is the most important issue to them?

Voters’ dissatisfaction with Biden and Biden’s economy seems to have two central components: Americans think less of the economy than the headline numbers suggest, and they are thinking less about the economy at all.

*snip*

[Elessar Zappa]

1. I think we'll win based on the issue of reproductive choice.

It doesn’t appear that we can convince voters that the economy is actually doing great. But women are still pissed about the overturning of Roe and all these crazy laws that states are passing that make women second class citizens. Democrats have over-performed in several races because of this. The polls didn’t predict it.

[budkin]

4. Agree. This one issue continues to win, and it will save Biden.

Book it.

[snowybirdie]

2. Some may

say this is an invalid premise with which to form a conclusion.

[spooky3]

3. It's far more likely that they are concerned about inflation

In the grocery store and in housing prices, and moderately high interest rates.

[ForgedCrank]

5. Not to

mention we are still paying near 4 bucks a gallon for the cheapest gasoline. Those are the things that are right in the voters face every day and it's a definite concern. People don't care that Joe Biden doesn't set gas prices, they just see it and go straight to blame.
To claim the economy is is great shape is also folly in my eyes. My paycheck buys FAR less now than it did previously, and that is what voters see. Again, not sure what a President can do about that, but it's what we have to deal with unfortunately.

[Johnny2X2X]

6. It's laregly media driven

It is in fact the strongest economy we've edver had, if the media focused on that rather than inflation (which is not actually high anymore) people would be thinking differently. 3.5% inflation is not high, period, full stop. But the media is obsessed with inflation, it gets brought into almost every single story they cover.

And it's become such an emotional issue. People are so invested in inflation being the bane of their lives that any talk about how the economy is really good gets met with anger.

[LiberalFighter]

7. It takes time for people to take it in.

Some of the problems are the fault of people.
If it is gas prices. Are they speeding? That reduces mpg. Do they speed up to a stoplight? That reduces mpg. Do they zip and zap in traffic? That reduces mpg. Do they speed fast after a stoplight? That reduces mpg. Did they buy a vehicle with low mpg?

The price of gas in the 1970s and 80s was low when vehicles had much lower mpg.

[H2O Man]

8. There are

voters at various levels of economic status. Thus, this is of little or no value in determing how "voters" think.