HOW KERRY WON OHIO BY 51-48%...

[TruthIsAll]

Well, by winning the majority of virtually every
demographic...
The RBRs must have stayed home.

If you believe the Exit Poll, Kerry won OH by 160,000 votes.
If you believe the Vote, Bush won by 119,000 votes.

If Kerry won this solid Republican state by 51-48%, you just
KNOW he had to do 1-2% better nationally.

Which means he won the election by 6-8 million votes.


OHIO EXIT POLL
1,963 Respondents
Updated: 12:21 a.m.		

CATEGORY	BUSH	 KERRY

GENDER	      47.94%	52.06%
RACE/GENDER	47.99%	51.01%
RACE		47.86%	50.14%
AGE		48.31%	51.39%
INCOME	      45.91%	51.62%

EDUCATION	48.77%	50.94%
PARTY ID	47.18%	51.20%
IDEOLOGY	48.03%	50.97%
VOTED BEFORE  49.30%	 50.70%
RELIGION	49.08%	50.66%

WHENDECIDED	48.22%	49.68%
BUSH JOB	48.42%	49.10%
COMMUNITY 1	48.94%	51.68%
COMMUNITY 2   48.42%	51.33%
REGION	      48.58%	52.07%

VOTE SENATE	48.04%	51.96%
			
AVERAGE	      48.19%	51.03%
VOTES		2.711	2.871

ACTUAL	      50.82%	48.71%
VOTES		2.859	2.740
			
MoE		2.21%	
PROB		1 IN	106


GENDER		BUSH	KERRY
Male 	47%	49%	51%
Female	53%	47%	53%
	100%	47.94%	52.06%
			
RACE/GENDER			
WM 	40%	53%	47%
WF	45%	53%	47%
NWM	6%	25%	75%
NWF	8%	18%	82%
	99%	47.99%	51.01%
			
RACE			
White	86%	53%	47%
Black	9%	16%	84%
Latino	3%	28%	72%
Asian	1%	*	*
Other	1%	*	*
	100%	47.86%	50.14%
			
AGE			
18-29	21%	40%	60%
30-44	30%	49%	50%
45-59	29%	49%	51%
60-	20%	55%	45%
	100%	48.31%	51.39%
INCOME			
0-15	7%	27%	73%
15-30	16%	34%	66%
30-50	25%	46%	53%
50-75	22%	55%	44%
75-100	15%	50%	50%
100-150	9%	56%	44%
150-200	4%	61%	39%
200-	2%	*	*
	100%	45.91%	51.62%
EDUCATION			
NoHS	4%	40%	60%
HSGrad	29%	46%	53%
College	28%	50%	50%
ColGrad	25%	53%	47%
Postgrad14%	47%	53%
	100%	48.77%	50.94%
			
PARTY ID			
Dem	38%	8%	91%
Rep	37%	94%	6%
Ind	24%	39%	60%
	99%	47.18%	51.20%
			
IDEOLOGY			
Lib	21%	13%	87%
Mod	47%	39%	61%
Con	31%	87%	13%
	99%	48.03%	50.97%
			
			
VOTED BEFORE?			
No	14%	45%	55%
Yes	86%	50%	50%
	100%	49.30%	50.70%
			
			
RELIGION			
Prot	57%	54%	46%
Cath	26%	53%	46%
Jewish	1%	*	*
Other	6%	24%	76%
None	11%	28%	72%
	101%	49.08%	50.66%
			
			
WHEN DECIDED			
Today	5%	40%	60%
3Days	4%	36%	64%
Week 	2%	*	*
Month	10%	37%	62%
Before	79%	52%	48%
	100%	48.22%	49.68%
			
			
HOW BUSH IS HANDLING HIS JOB			
Approve50%	93%	7%
Disap	48%	4%	95%
	98%	48.42%	49.10%
			
			
SIZE OF COMMUNITY			
BCities	7%	49%	50%
SmCities19%	38%	62%
Suburbs	50%	49%	51%
SmTowns	6%	43%	55%
Rural	19%	59%	40%
	101%	48.94%	51.68%
			
			
SIZE OF COMMUNITY			
Urban	26%	41%	59%
Suburb 	49%	49%	51%
Rural 	25%	55%	44%
	100%	48.42%	51.33%
			
			
REGION			
Cuya 	13%	35%	65%
NE	27%	45%	55%
Cent	23%	52%	47%
NW	12%	49%	50%
SW	26%	54%	46%
	101%	48.58%	52.07%
			
			
VOTE FOR U.S. SENATE			
Dem	43%	7%	93%
Rep	57%	79%	21%
	100%	48.04%	51.96%
			
			
			
			
			
			

[MissWaverly]

1. Thanks TIA

can I ask a question from no math whiz, how did the vote for senate
go in Ohio, did the Republican challenger win as well as Bush despite
his low results in the exit poll?

[TruthIsAll]

4. Senate poll: Repub won 57-43% and 21% of the 57% voted for Kerry

VOTE FOR U.S. SENATE
Dem 43% 7% 93%
Rep 57% 79% 21%
100% 48.04% 51.96%

[MissWaverly]

5. okay, let me see if I understand

final vote tally by Fraudwell
GWB 2,859,768
JK 2,741,167
Bush wins by 118,601 but according to exit poll ratios, you are saying that Kerry should have actually gotten:
2,901,167 instead of 2,741,167
and the 160,000 includes the current Bush lead which was leached off
of Kerry 118,601 + 41,399 according to your exit poll of response
probability

So where does that leave GWB, obiviously his current lead evaporates
2,859,768 so it drops down to
2,699,768

so the real tally should be
GWB 2,699,768
JK 2,901,167

[TruthIsAll]

17. Not quite. I have Kerry at 2.871 million to Bush's 2.711.

Based on the Kerry 51.03% average of the categories shown with Bush at 48.19%

POLL AVERAGE:
Bush: 48.19%, Kerry: 51.03%

VOTES:
Bush: 2.711, Kerry: 2.871 - a .160 Kerry margin

ACTUAL:
Bush: 50.82%, Kerry: 48.71%

VOTES:
Bush: 2.859mm, Kerry: 2.740 - .119 Bush margin

Kerry goes up .131mm from the final vote, Bush drops .148mm.

[autorank]

2. Once again you prove that the "emperor has no clothes."

BTW, what's with this "feeple fancy curve" from some pych grad student in Scotland. The WaPost is supposed to cover it. Pisses me off. Why the fuck aren't they covering TIA, Freeman, etc. Could it be that 'the fix is in.'

Thank you for this!!!

[TruthIsAll]

34. Ohio counties: votes, gender, age, machine types & incidents

There may be nuggets here for further analysis. 

Which counties had the highest Incident ratios? 
Clark, Cuyohaga, Franklin, Lucas, Mahoning.


		       Punch cards	Optiscan	E-Voting					
Votes	Kerry	Bush	KP	BP	KO	BO	KE	BE	Inc	%TV	Inc%Votes	
 
"Adams"
11669	35.90%	64.10%	4189	7480	0	0	0	0	0	0.21%		
"Allen"
 47451	33.34%	66.66%	0	0	15822	31629	0	0	0	0.87%		
"Ashland"
24171	34.52%	65.48%	0	0	8345	15826	0	0	0	0.44%		
"Ashtabula"
44166	53.31%	46.69%	23545	20621	0	0	0	0	0	0.81%		
"Athens"
27281	63.67%	36.33%	17369	9912	0	0	0	0	0	0.50%		

"Auglaize"
22166	25.85%	74.15%	0	0	0	0	5729	16437	0	0.41%		
"Belmont"	
32531	53.04%	46.96%	17256	15275	0	0	0	0	0	0.60%		
 "Brown"	
19538	36.12%	63.88%	7058	12480	0	0	0	0	0	0.36%		
 "Butler"	
160920	33.67%	66.33%	54185	106735	0	0	0	0	0	2.95%		
 "Carroll"	
13721	45.11%	54.89%	6190	7531	0	0	0	0	0	0.25%		

 "Champaign"
18184	37.13%	62.87%	6752	11432	0	0	0	0	0	0.33%		
 "Clark"	
67268	48.80%	51.20%	32824	34444	0	0	0	0	1	1.23%	0.0015%	
 "Clermont"	
87012	29.10%	70.90%	0	0	25318	61694	0	0	0	1.59%		
 "Clinton"	
17869	29.35%	70.65%	5244	12625	0	0	0	0	0	0.33%		
 "Columbiana"	
48096	47.58%	52.42%	22884	25212	0	0	0	0	0	0.88%		

 "Coshocton"	
15884	42.58%	57.42%	0	0	6763	9121	0	0	0	0.29%		
 "Crawford"
21293	35.81%	64.19%	7626	13667	0	0	0	0	0	0.39%		
 "Cuyahoga"
648886	66.77%	33.23%	433262	215624	0	0	0	0	75	11.89%	0.0116%	
"Darke"	
25532	30.01%	69.99%	7663	17869	0	0	0	0	0	0.47%		
 "Defiance"	
17701	37.75%	62.25%	6683	11018	0	0	0	0	0	0.32%		

 "Delaware"	
78728	33.65%	66.35%	26491	52237	0	0	0	0	0	1.44%		
 "Erie"	
38671	53.40%	46.60%	0	0	20652	18019	0	0	0	0.71%		
 "Fairfield"	
66378	36.64%	63.36%	24321	42057	0	0	0	0	0	1.22%		
 "Fayette"	
11465	37.02%	62.98%	4244	7221	0	0	0	0	0	0.21%		
 "Franklin"	
509769	54.06%	45.94%	0	0	0	0	275573	234196	82	9.34%	0.0161%	

 "Fulton"	
21541	37.59%	62.41%	8098	13443	0	0	0	0	0	0.39%		
 "Gallia"	
13508	38.41%	61.59%	5188	8320	0	0	0	0	0	0.25%		
 "Geauga"	
49528	39.52%	60.48%	0	0	19571	29957	0	0	0	0.91%		
 "Greene"	
76190	38.52%	61.48%	29349	46841	0	0	0	0	0	1.40%		
 "Guernsey"	
16167	43.74%	56.26%	7072	9095	0	0	0	0	0	0.30%		

 "Hamilton"	
406595	46.96%	53.04%	190956	215639	0	0	0	0	18	7.45%	0.0044%	
 "Hancock"	
34275	28.97%	71.03%	0	0	9930	24345	0	0	0	0.63%		
 "Hardin"	
12910	36.58%	63.42%	0	0	4723	8187	0	0	0	0.24%		
 "Harrison"	
8142	46.97%	53.03%	3824	4318	0	0	0	0	0	0.15%		
 "Henry"	
14797	33.97%	66.03%	5027	9770	0	0	0	0	0	0.27%		

 "Highland"	
17883	33.62%	66.38%	6012	11871	0	0	0	0	0	0.33%		
 "Hocking"	
12886	47.07%	52.93%	6065	6821	0	0	0	0	0	0.24%		
 "Holmes"	
10921	24.01%	75.99%	2622	8299	0	0	0	0	0	0.20%		
 "Huron"	
24907	41.57%	58.43%	10354	14553	0	0	0	0	0	0.46%		
 "Jackson"	
13901	39.70%	60.30%	5519	8382	0	0	0	0	0	0.25%		

 "Jefferson"	
35561	52.51%	47.49%	18674	16887	0	0	0	0	0	0.65%		
 "Knox"	
26290	36.57%	63.43%	0	0	0	0	9613	16677	1	0.48%	0.0038%	
 "Lake"	
118086	48.67%	51.33%	0	0	0	0	57471	60615	0	2.16%		
 "Lawrence"	
27052	43.89%	56.11%	11874	15178	0	0	0	0	0	0.50%		
 "Licking"	
77442	37.90%	62.10%	29350	48092	0	0	0	0	0	1.42%		

 "Logan"	
20728	32.05%	67.95%	6644	14084	0	0	0	0	0	0.38%		
 "Lorain"	
136263	56.15%	43.85%	76512	59751	0	0	0	0	0	2.50%		
 "Lucas"	
214279	60.14%	39.86%	0	0	128874	85405	0	0	31	3.93%	0.0145%	
 "Madison"	
17011	35.74%	64.26%	6080	10931	0	0	0	0	0	0.31%		
 "Mahoning"	
129468	62.95%	37.05%	0	0	0	0	81500	47968	33	2.37%	0.0255%	

 "Marion"	
28221	40.72%	59.28%	11492	16729	0	0	0	0	0	0.52%		
 "Medina"	
83224	42.93%	57.07%	35725	47499	0	0	0	0	0	1.53%		
 "Meigs"	
10490	41.32%	58.68%	4334	6156	0	0	0	0	0	0.19%		
 "Mercer"	
19946	24.69%	75.31%	4924	15022	0	0	0	0	0	0.37%		
 "Miami"	
50078	34.02%	65.98%	0	0	17039	33039	0	0	0	0.92%		

 "Monroe"	
7534	55.27%	44.73%	4164	3370	0	0	0	0	0	0.14%		
 "Montgomery"	
272978	50.65%	49.35%	138262	134716	0	0	0	0	0	5.00%		
 "Morgan"	
6505	43.20%	56.80%	2810	3695	0	0	0	0	0	0.12%		
 "Morrow"	
15964	35.40%	64.60%	5651	10313	0	0	0	0	0	0.29%		
 "Muskingum"	
37951	42.29%	57.71%	16050	21901	0	0	0	0	0	0.70%		

 "Noble"	
6417	40.80%	59.20%	2618	3799	0	0	0	0	0	0.12%		
 "Ottawa"	
22735	48.01%	51.99%	0	0	10915	11820	0	0	0	0.42%		
 "Paulding"	
9618	36.85%	63.15%	3544	6074	0	0	0	0	0	0.18%		
 "Perry"	
14972	48.12%	51.88%	7205	7767	0	0	0	0	0	0.27%		
 "Pickaway"	
22252	37.70%	62.30%	0	0	0	0	8388	13864	0	0.41%		

 "Pike"	
12250	47.88%	52.12%	5865	6385	0	0	0	0	0	0.22%		
 "Portage"	
74969	53.24%	46.76%	39915	35054	0	0	0	0	1	1.37%	0.0013%	
 "Preble"	
20677	34.65%	65.35%	7165	13512	0	0	0	0	0	0.38%		
 "Putnam"	
18544	23.45%	76.55%	4348	14196	0	0	0	0	0	0.34%		
 "Richland"	
60309	39.89%	60.11%	24056	36253	0	0	0	0	0	1.11%		

 "Ross"	
30641	44.71%	55.29%	0	0	0	0	13701	16940	0	0.56%		
 "Sandusky"	
31733	43.83%	56.17%	0	0	13909	17824	0	0	0	0.58%		
 "Scioto"	
34376	47.82%	52.18%	16438	17938	0	0	0	0	0	0.63%		
 "Seneca"	
26394	40.80%	59.20%	10770	15624	0	0	0	0	0	0.48%		
 "Shelby"	
22162	28.59%	71.41%	6337	15825	0	0	0	0	0	0.41%		

 "Stark"	
182154	50.67%	49.33%	92295	89859	0	0	0	0	1	3.34%	0.0005%	
 "Summit"	
269081	56.82%	43.18%	152897	116184	0	0	0	0	5	4.93%	0.0019%	
 "Trumbull"	
105541	61.89%	38.11%	65321	40220	0	0	0	0	0	1.93%		
 "Tuscarawas"	
41819	44.14%	55.86%	18460	23359	0	0	0	0	0	0.77%		
 "Union"	
22139	29.57%	70.43%	6546	15593	0	0	0	0	0	0.41%		

 "Van Wert"	
14510	27.75%	72.25%	4026	10484	0	0	0	0	0	0.27%		
 "Vinton"	
5806	44.99%	55.01%	2612	3194	0	0	0	0	0	0.11%		
 "Warren"	
91922	27.63%	72.37%	25399	66523	0	0	0	0	0	1.68%		
 "Washington"	
29166	41.61%	58.39%	0	0	12137	17029	0	0	0	0.53%		
 "Wayne"	
50888	38.23%	61.77%	19455	31433	0	0	0	0	0	0.93%		

 "Williams"
17864	34.88%	65.12%	6231	11633	0	0	0	0	0	0.33%		
 "Wood"	
60790	46.42%	53.58%	28216	32574	0	0	0	0	0	1.11%		
 "Wyandot"	
10510	33.82%	66.18%	3554	6956	0	0	0	0	0	0.19%		

Totals(votes in millions)
5.456	2.660	2.796	1.914	2.026	.294	.364	.452	.407	248	100%		
	48.75%	51.25%	48.58%	51.42%	44.69%	55.31%	52.64%	47.36%	
 
 

[MontageOfFreedom]

3. Keep the truth coming...This is getting interesting. n/t

[bleever]

6. The counteroffensive is building.

Too late.

Febble looks like an attempt to shore up the rBr.

Adding sails to a sinking ship.

[MissWaverly]

8. Not when the FBI is investigating Noe in Ohio

We going to start singing Noel, Noel, because we had a blue christmas but there's a chance Santa will still be good to us,
it's seems to me that he had always keeps a list of who was naughty and nice, maybe the red suit is just a disguise.

[autorank]

9. Very curious choice of targets. Muller wants to be a Dem appointed

Supreme Court member.

[MissWaverly]

10. they say the investigation has been going on for several months

I can't wait to hear more, what I hear is that there were several
people that made $2,000 to the Republican party, who were given that
money so they could donate it, apparently the money all came from 1 source.

FBI raids Bush fundraiser's condo
Accused Ohio GOP bigwig reportedly worked with Rove during campaign.

This is from www.rawstory.com, same source is on www.buzzflash.com

[autorank]

13. Here's a story line. Draw in Blackwell, an excuse to open up...

election fraud! Oh please God, I'll go to church every Sunday and tithe if you give us a full expose of election fraud.

[MissWaverly]

21. let's keep our fingers cross

I really felt there was heavy outside influence in OH, I lived in
Ohio for 2 years, 2004 election in Ohio never seemed genuine to me.

[bleever]

22. I'll worship as many gods as it takes to bring this to the light of day.

Please, oh please.

We're pushing from this end; just a little help from the cosmos and it will surely happen.

[1956]

32. YES,YES!

KEEP BELIEVIN"!!!!

[AtLiberty]

7. These exit polls came from what source?

[TruthIsAll]

14. From CNN. Nothing new. 47 state exits downloaded by Simon 11/03 @12:22am.

What is new are the detailed OH demographics.

http://www.exitpollz.org/cnn2004epolls/Pres_epolls/US/P/00/epolls.0.html

[Name removed]

11. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[TruthIsAll]

15. Sorry you dissaprove...nt

.

[MontageOfFreedom]

16. Might want to check your links. These aren't preliminary exit polls. n/t

[Name removed]

26. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Peace Patriot]

33. Deaniac, you defending Wally O'Dell & buds counting all our votes...

...in secret this time?

Gee, I wonder what a paper trail or open source code might have shown us of "firm and solid proof"?

And I wonder why we don't have them.

[vince3]

12. All The Way with TIA

[kster]

18. kick.nt

[Sancho]

19. I can't agree more with this type of analysis..

I think that if M-E gave us the raw sheets - it would be so clear that on the individual level, the demographics show both that Kerry won AND the sample was representative...but this type of analysis really puts the pollsters in a corner.

[intensitymedia]

20. another nail in w's coffin n/t

[vince3]

23. kick n/t

[berniew1]

24. Documentation by reserchers at the Nashville Election Reform Conference

Evidence Kerry won Ohio and the National total
http://www.flcv.com/ohiosum.html

[corbett]

25. Kick For The Truth

[kster]

35. one more time.nt

[TruthIsAll]

27. Even Blackwell couldn't stop the exit polling...

..

[gameshowguy2000]

28. Popular Vote or Electoral Vote?

OK, but was this the Popular Vote or the Electoral Vote? That's what I want to know.

[TruthIsAll]

31. WTF? Popular or Electoral? Well, beam me up...

This is not a gameshow, guy.

[autorank]

29. This thread totally restores my faith in the DU elections forum!

TIA and posters (except naysayers):yourock:

[TruthIsAll]

30. So, then...let's kick it for the wekend..

...