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12:22am State Exit Poll Gender Breakout: Kerry won 329 EV

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-30-05 03:00 AM
Original message
12:22am State Exit Poll Gender Breakout: Kerry won 329 EV
Edited on Sat Apr-30-05 03:26 AM by TruthIsAll
12:22am State Exit Polls
http://www.exitpollz.org/Nat_P.html

GENDER STATE VOTE ANALYSIS

Based on these results, Kerry probably won:
IA 7, NV 5, NM 5, OH 20, VA 13 and FL 27, a total of 77 EV. 
252+77=329 EV

Includes number of respondents and MoE.
state percentages on line 4.
Ex: AL - 730 respondents, 3.63% MoE

There are four states (NC, NJ, NY, VA) for which data released
on election night had been recovered by 12:22am. The NEP vote
estimate based on weighted exit poll data is given for each
state.

		BUSH	KERRY	NADER	
					
AL	730				
M	46%	64.0%	34.0%	0.0%	
F	54%	53.0%	46.0%	1.0%	
MoE	3.63%	58.1%	40.5%	0.5%	
					
					
AK	910				
M	48.00%	63.00%	32.00%	4.00%	
F	52.00%	53.00%	45.00%	2.00%	
MoE	3.25%	57.80%	38.76%	2.96%	
					
					
AZ	1859				
M	47.00%	56.00%	43.00%	 -   	
F	53.00%	50.00%	50.00%	 -   	
MoE	2.27%	52.82%	46.71%	 -   	




AR	1402				
M	43.00%	58.00%	41.00%	1.00%	
F	57.00%	49.00%	50.00%	0.00%	
MoE	2.62%	52.87%	46.13%	0.43%	




CA	919				
M	48.00%	46.00%	51.00%	0.00%	
F	52.00%	41.00%	58.00%	0.00%	
MoE	3.23%	43.40%	54.64%	0.00%	Kerry



CO	2515				
M	47.00%	51.00%	46.00%	1.00%	
F	53.00%	49.00%	50.00%	0.00%	
MoE	1.95%	49.94%	48.12%	0.47%	



CT	872				
M	47.00%	42.00%	55.00%	2.00%	
F	53.00%	40.00%	60.00%	1.00%	
MoE	3.32%	40.94%	57.65%	1.47%	Kerry


DE	770				
M	43.00%	47.00%	51.00%	1.00%	
F	57.00%	36.00%	62.00%	1.00%	
MoE	3.53%	40.73%	57.27%	1.00%	Kerry


DC	795				
M	44.00%	11.00%	87.00%	1.00%	
F	56.00%	8.00%	92.00%	1.00%	
MoE	3.48%	9.32%	89.80%	1.00%	Kerry


FL	2846				
M	46.00%	52.00%	47.00%	1.00%	
F	54.00%	48.00%	52.00%	0.00%	
MoE	1.84%	49.84%	49.70%	0.46%	 Kerry

GA	1536				
M	44.00%	60.00%	39.00%	0	
F	56.00%	54.00%	46.00%	0	
MoE	2.50%	56.64%	42.92%	0	


HA	499				
M	46.00%	51.00%	49.00%	0	
F	54.00%	43.00%	57.00%	0	
MoE	4.39%	46.68%	53.32%	0	Kerry


ID	539				
M	45.00%	69.00%	29.00%	0	
F	55.00%	63.00%	36.00%	0	
MoE	4.22%	65.70%	32.85%	0	
					

IL	1392				
M	46.00%	44.00%	55.00%	0	
F	54.00%	41.00%	58.00%	0	
MoE	2.63%	42.38%	56.62%	0	Kerry


IN	926				
M	48.00%	60.00%	39.00%	0.00%	
F	52.00%	57.00%	42.00%	0.00%	
MoE	4.39%	58.44%	40.56%	0.00%	


IA	2502				
M	46.00%	50.00%	47.00%	2.00%	
F	54.00%	47.00%	52.00%	1.00%	
MoE	4.22%	48.38%	49.70%	1.46%	Kerry


KS	654				
M	45.00%	65.00%	33.00%	1.00%	
F	55.00%	64.00%	35.00%	1.00%	
MoE	3.83%	64.45%	34.10%	1.00%	



KY	1034				
M	46.00%	60.00%	38.00%	1.00%	
F	54.00%	57.00%	42.00%	0.00%	
MoE	3.05%	58.38%	40.16%	0.46%	


LA	1669				
M	45.00%	58.00%	40.00%	1.00%	
F	55.00%	52.00%	47.00%	0.00%	
MoE	2.40%	54.70%	43.85%	0.45%	


ME	1968				
M	47.00%	48.00%	49.00%	2.00%	
F	53.00%	41.00%	58.00%	1.00%	
MoE	2.21%	44.29%	53.77%	1.47%	Kerry

MD	1000				
M	46.00%	45.00%	54.00%	0.00%	
F	54.00%	40.00%	58.00%	1.00%	
MoE	3.10%	42.30%	56.16%	0.54%	Kerry


MA	869				
M	48.00%	36.00%	61.00%	0.00%	
F	52.00%	30.00%	69.00%	0.00%	
MoE	3.32%	32.88%	65.16%	0.00%	Kerry


MI	2452				
M	50.00%	48.00%	49.00%	1.00%	
F	50.00%	45.00%	54.00%	1.00%	
MoE	1.98%	46.50%	51.50%	1.00%	Kerry


MN	2178				
M	48.00%	45.00%	53.00%	1.00%	
F	52.00%	44.00%	54.00%	1.00%	
MoE	2.10%	44.48%	53.52%	1.00%	Kerry


MS	798				
M	47.00%	56.00%	43.00%	1.00%	
F	53.00%	57.00%	43.00%	0.00%	
MoE	3.47%	56.53%	43.00%	0.47%	
					
					

MO	2158				
M	47.00%	52.00%	47.00%	0.00%	
F	53.00%	52.00%	47.00%	0.00%	
MoE	2.11%	52.00%	47.00%	0.00%	


MT	640				
M	51.00%	57.00%	38.00%	3.00%	
F	49.00%	59.00%	37.00%	3.00%	
MoE	3.87%	57.98%	37.51%	3.00%	


NE	785				
M	48.00%	62.00%	36.00%	2.00%	
F	52.00%	63.00%	36.00%	1.00%	
MoE	3.50%	62.52%	36.00%	1.48%	
					


NV	2116				
M	48.00%	51.00%	45.00%	3.00%	
F	52.00%	45.00%	53.00%	1.00%	
MoE	2.13%	47.88%	49.16%	1.96%	Kerry

NH	1849				
M	51.00%	47.00%	52.00%	0.00%	
F	49.00%	41.00%	58.00%	2.00%	
MoE	2.28%	44.06%	54.94%	0.98%	Kerry


NM	1951				
M	46.00%	48.00%	49.00%	2.00%	
F	54.00%	47.00%	51.00%	1.00%	
MoE	2.22%	47.46%	50.08%	1.46%	Kerry

NY	1476				
MoE	2.55%	33.80%	65.10%		Kerry
					
NJ	1524				
MoE	2.56%	 40.2%	58.4%            Kerry

NC	2099				
MoE	2.14%	51.80%	48.20%		

ND	649				
M	49.00%	68.00%	29.00%	2.00%	
F	51.00%	61.00%	36.00%	2.00%	
MoE	3.85%	64.43%	32.57%	2.00%	


OH	1963				
M	47.00%	49.00%	51.00%	0	
F	53.00%	47.00%	53.00%	0	
MoE	2.21%	47.94%	52.06%	0	Kerry


OK	1539				
M	48.00%	66.00%	33.00%	0	
F	52.00%	64.00%	36.00%	0	
MoE	2.50%	64.96%	34.56%	0	


OR	1054				
M	45.00%	55.00%	42.00%	0	
F	55.00%	42.00%	57.00%	0	
MoE	3.02%	47.85%	50.25%	0	Kerry



PA	1930				
M	47.00%	48.00%	52.00%	0	
F	53.00%	43.00%	56.00%	0	
MoE	2.23%	45.35%	54.12%	0	Kerry


RI	809				
M	47.00%	37.00%	60.00%	2.00%	
F	53.00%	33.00%	65.00%	2.00%	
MoE	3.45%	34.88%	62.65%	2.00%	Kerry


SC	1935				
M	43.00%	58.00%	40.00%	1.00%	
F	57.00%	50.00%	49.00%	1.00%	
MoE	2.23%	53.44%	45.13%	1.00%	


SD	1495				
M	51.00%	61.00%	35.00%	3.00%	
F	49.00%	61.00%	38.00%	1.00%	
MoE	2.53%	61.00%	36.47%	2.02%	


TN	1774				
M	48.00%	58.00%	39.00%	2.00%	
F	52.00%	58.00%	42.00%	0.00%	
MoE	2.33%	58.00%	40.56%	0.96%	


TX	1671				
M	46.00%	59.00%	39.00%	0	
F	54.00%	65.00%	34.00%	0	
MoE	2.40%	62.24%	36.30%	0	

UT	798				
M	46.00%	67.00%	28.00%	3.00%	
F	54.00%	69.00%	30.00%	1.00%	
MoE	3.47%	68.08%	29.08%	1.92%	


VT	685				
M	45.00%	36.00%	62.00%	2.00%	
F	55.00%	31.00%	65.00%	3.00%	
MoE	3.74%	33.25%	63.65%	2.55%	Kerry


VA	1432				
MoE	2.59%	49.70%	50.20%		Kerry


WA	2123				
M	43.00%	48.00%	49.00%	1.00%	
F	57.00%	41.00%	58.00%	1.00%	
MoE	2.13%	44.01%	54.13%	1.00%	Kerry


WV	1722				
M	47.00%	54.00%	44.00%	1.00%	
F	53.00%	54.00%	45.00%	1.00%	
MoE	2.36%	54.00%	44.53%	1.00%	



WI	2223				
M	47.00%	52.00%	45.00%	2.00%	
F	53.00%	46.00%	53.00%	1.00%	
MoE	2.08%	48.82%	49.24%	1.47%	Kerry


WY	684				
M	51.00%	67.00%	28.00%	3.00%	
F	49.00%	64.00%	34.00%	1.00%	
MoE	3.75%	65.53%	30.94%	2.02%
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Pacifist Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-30-05 03:08 AM
Response to Original message
1. That is darned close to the number I predicted the Sunday....
before election day.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-30-05 03:12 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. Take a look at my prediction
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/
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Pacifist Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-30-05 03:34 AM
Response to Reply #2
3. Wow
If I remember correctly I think my prediction was 317.
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Sancho Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-30-05 06:46 AM
Response to Original message
4. Exactly the kind of analysis the E-M should be doing!
Keep it up, TIA!
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-20-05 06:58 AM
Response to Original message
5. Enough about rBR. Look at Gender n/t
/
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Carolab Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-21-05 03:44 AM
Response to Reply #5
8. That's why I wanted to discuss Rove's "underrepresentation" argument.
Edited on Sat May-21-05 04:06 AM by Carolab
I knew something was up. Kerry was creaming him with the female vote. Rove said that the exit polls were wrong because they were "underrepresenting males" per "his" data. They "adjusted" the male vote upwards, both on the exit polls and the "actual" tallies. And then they also turned around and said Bush got the female vote.
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-20-05 08:27 PM
Response to Original message
6. autorank here in Virginia. We are a BLUE state. I knew it.
Are there any elections fraud investigators in Virginia? If so PM me. I poll watched and was convinced at that time that the results from my precinct were bogus (vast undercount of the vote).

I'm ready to do some cage rattling so PM me if your'e there.

auto
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kster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-21-05 03:08 AM
Response to Original message
7. Pass.nt
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