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OliverQ

(3,363 posts)
Mon Jul 23, 2018, 02:06 PM Jul 2018

I don't understand polling.

So the new NBC/WSJ poll came out last night. It showed Trump's approval has risen to 45% (that's absolutely insane and depressing.)

But it also showed that Independents now support a Democratic Congress by a margin of 22%. As of June, it was only a 7 point difference. That's a 15% increase in 1 month.

How on Earth can nearly triple the number of Independents support flipping Congress to blue to put a check on Trump, but his approval actually goes up? I just don't get it.

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I don't understand polling. (Original Post) OliverQ Jul 2018 OP
Maybe they're polling Russians NY_20th Jul 2018 #1
What happens is, Wellstone ruled Jul 2018 #2
On FiveThirtyEight, which aggregates all polls, approval is at 41.8 Kablooie Jul 2018 #3
Trump is stirring things up, just like people wanted marylandblue Jul 2018 #4
 

NY_20th

(1,028 posts)
1. Maybe they're polling Russians
Mon Jul 23, 2018, 02:09 PM
Jul 2018

His deplorable base is very devoted to him, but they are far outnumbered by everyone else.

 

Wellstone ruled

(34,661 posts)
2. What happens is,
Mon Jul 23, 2018, 02:20 PM
Jul 2018

someone wants this Poll for some Newsie Reason. First,if you order a poll and pay for it,guess what,the Polling questions are written in to reflect what the Payee wants. And the use of certain Phone data bases play a major roll in the desired out come.

Please do not forget,WSJ is Murdoch,NBC Management gave Trump Billions in free Promotional Air time and in return made Billions in profit from Ads sold during the Election Cycle. And,NBC execs promoted the Apprentice Reality TV show as well as Broadcast it.

Kablooie

(18,572 posts)
3. On FiveThirtyEight, which aggregates all polls, approval is at 41.8
Mon Jul 23, 2018, 02:22 PM
Jul 2018

For the past 3 months his polling has been pretty flat according to them.
42.6 of registered voters approve.

Polls can be affected by wording of the questions as well as who they call so one poll is not necessarily indicative.

In any case he's not dropping at all and is still approved by a substantial portion of the country.

marylandblue

(12,344 posts)
4. Trump is stirring things up, just like people wanted
Mon Jul 23, 2018, 02:33 PM
Jul 2018

But they don't trust him, so they want a Democratic Congress as a check.

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