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Mon Jul 23, 2018, 01:06 PM

 

I don't understand polling.

So the new NBC/WSJ poll came out last night. It showed Trump's approval has risen to 45% (that's absolutely insane and depressing.)

But it also showed that Independents now support a Democratic Congress by a margin of 22%. As of June, it was only a 7 point difference. That's a 15% increase in 1 month.

How on Earth can nearly triple the number of Independents support flipping Congress to blue to put a check on Trump, but his approval actually goes up? I just don't get it.

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Reply I don't understand polling. (Original post)
OliverQ Jul 2018 OP
NY_20th Jul 2018 #1
Wellstone ruled Jul 2018 #2
Kablooie Jul 2018 #3
marylandblue Jul 2018 #4

Response to OliverQ (Original post)

Mon Jul 23, 2018, 01:09 PM

1. Maybe they're polling Russians

 

His deplorable base is very devoted to him, but they are far outnumbered by everyone else.

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Response to OliverQ (Original post)

Mon Jul 23, 2018, 01:20 PM

2. What happens is,

 

someone wants this Poll for some Newsie Reason. First,if you order a poll and pay for it,guess what,the Polling questions are written in to reflect what the Payee wants. And the use of certain Phone data bases play a major roll in the desired out come.

Please do not forget,WSJ is Murdoch,NBC Management gave Trump Billions in free Promotional Air time and in return made Billions in profit from Ads sold during the Election Cycle. And,NBC execs promoted the Apprentice Reality TV show as well as Broadcast it.

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Response to OliverQ (Original post)

Mon Jul 23, 2018, 01:22 PM

3. On FiveThirtyEight, which aggregates all polls, approval is at 41.8

For the past 3 months his polling has been pretty flat according to them.
42.6 of registered voters approve.

Polls can be affected by wording of the questions as well as who they call so one poll is not necessarily indicative.

In any case he's not dropping at all and is still approved by a substantial portion of the country.

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Response to OliverQ (Original post)

Mon Jul 23, 2018, 01:33 PM

4. Trump is stirring things up, just like people wanted

But they don't trust him, so they want a Democratic Congress as a check.

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