HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Main » General Discussion (Forum) » Why is there so much conc...

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 08:42 PM

Why is there so much concern about 538?

Those are real time projections that update as results come in. As per Nate:


11 replies, 1845 views

Reply to this thread

Back to top Alert abuse

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 11 replies Author Time Post
Reply Why is there so much concern about 538? (Original post)
lapucelle Nov 2018 OP
TlalocW Nov 2018 #1
BumRushDaShow Nov 2018 #2
boston bean Nov 2018 #3
Awsi Dooger Nov 2018 #7
boston bean Nov 2018 #9
TomSlick Nov 2018 #4
Lotusflower70 Nov 2018 #5
gay texan Nov 2018 #6
budkin Nov 2018 #8
Denzil_DC Nov 2018 #10
cmb1729 Nov 2018 #11

Response to lapucelle (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 08:43 PM

1. People are seeing the swings and freaking out

Without knowing the reason behind them. Nate says (in that tweet and elsewhere) that the model is too aggressive.

TlalocW

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to lapucelle (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 08:43 PM

2. I am glad they are pulling back the reins on it

because it is driving some people on DU ridiculously insane.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to lapucelle (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 08:43 PM

3. Which is why he shouldn't be giving percentages on who will win the house in real time.

It is useless information and spin.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to boston bean (Reply #3)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 08:46 PM

7. Nate's models are in their infancy

 

I mentioned that on several sites. He is tinkering with them tonight even as numbers are changing.

They will be significantly different in 2020.

The House is everything. I don't blame people for freaking out.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Awsi Dooger (Reply #7)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 08:47 PM

9. It is fucking useless.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to lapucelle (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 08:44 PM

4. Beats me.

I can't worry about Nate right now - the game is on.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to lapucelle (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 08:44 PM

5. It's nerve wracking

Some people are stressed by the constant swing of the pendulum.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to lapucelle (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 08:45 PM

6. There is so much riding on this

I mean, I get it. The soul of this nation is at stake

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to lapucelle (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 08:46 PM

8. It was a major fuckup by them

Nate is getting torn up right now over it.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to lapucelle (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 08:50 PM

10. Impatience can drive you to an early grave:




Daniel Larison
@DanielLarison

If you have a better idea for giving strangers aneurysms, let’s hear it

Julian Sanchez @normative

I swear I will never understand the amount of energy and attention devoted to realtime predictive modeling of an outcome we’re all going to know in like three hours.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to lapucelle (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 08:51 PM

11. Everybody is shell shocked...

I don't blame anyone for freaking out, but yeah we need to try to stay confident and it isn't easy after 2016.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink

Reply to this thread