Tue Nov 6, 2018, 08:42 PM

lapucelle (14,897 posts)

Why is there so much concern about 538?

Those are real time projections that update as results come in. As per Nate:

Link to tweet

11 replies, 1845 views

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11 replies	Author	Time	Post
Why is there so much concern about 538? (Original post)	lapucelle	Nov 2018	OP
People are seeing the swings and freaking out	TlalocW	Nov 2018	#1
I am glad they are pulling back the reins on it	BumRushDaShow	Nov 2018	#2
Which is why he shouldn't be giving percentages on who will win the house in real time.	boston bean	Nov 2018	#3
Nate's models are in their infancy	Awsi Dooger	Nov 2018	#7
It is fucking useless.	boston bean	Nov 2018	#9
Beats me.	TomSlick	Nov 2018	#4
It's nerve wracking	Lotusflower70	Nov 2018	#5
There is so much riding on this	gay texan	Nov 2018	#6
It was a major fuckup by them	budkin	Nov 2018	#8
Impatience can drive you to an early grave:	Denzil_DC	Nov 2018	#10
Everybody is shell shocked...	cmb1729	Nov 2018	#11

Response to lapucelle (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 08:43 PM

TlalocW (14,838 posts)

1. People are seeing the swings and freaking out

Without knowing the reason behind them. Nate says (in that tweet and elsewhere) that the model is too aggressive.

TlalocW

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Response to lapucelle (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 08:43 PM

BumRushDaShow (107,559 posts)

2. I am glad they are pulling back the reins on it

because it is driving some people on DU ridiculously insane.

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Response to lapucelle (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 08:43 PM

boston bean (35,218 posts)

3. Which is why he shouldn't be giving percentages on who will win the house in real time.

It is useless information and spin.

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Response to boston bean (Reply #3)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 08:46 PM

Awsi Dooger (14,565 posts)

7. Nate's models are in their infancy

I mentioned that on several sites. He is tinkering with them tonight even as numbers are changing.

They will be significantly different in 2020.

The House is everything. I don't blame people for freaking out.

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Response to Awsi Dooger (Reply #7)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 08:47 PM

boston bean (35,218 posts)

9. It is fucking useless.

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Response to lapucelle (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 08:44 PM

TomSlick (10,208 posts)

4. Beats me.

I can't worry about Nate right now - the game is on.

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Response to lapucelle (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 08:44 PM

Lotusflower70 (3,076 posts)

5. It's nerve wracking

Some people are stressed by the constant swing of the pendulum.

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Response to lapucelle (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 08:45 PM

gay texan (1,716 posts)

6. There is so much riding on this

I mean, I get it. The soul of this nation is at stake

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Response to lapucelle (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 08:46 PM

budkin (6,421 posts)

8. It was a major fuckup by them

Nate is getting torn up right now over it.

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Response to lapucelle (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 08:50 PM

Denzil_DC (6,546 posts)

10. Impatience can drive you to an early grave:

Link to tweet

Daniel Larison
@DanielLarison

If you have a better idea for giving strangers aneurysms, let’s hear it

Julian Sanchez @normative

I swear I will never understand the amount of energy and attention devoted to realtime predictive modeling of an outcome we’re all going to know in like three hours.
Link to tweet

…

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Response to lapucelle (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 08:51 PM

cmb1729 (49 posts)

11. Everybody is shell shocked...

I don't blame anyone for freaking out, but yeah we need to try to stay confident and it isn't easy after 2016.

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