Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

dalton99a

(81,065 posts)
Sat Nov 9, 2019, 12:46 PM Nov 2019

How Scientists Got Climate Change So Wrong (NYT)

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/08/opinion/sunday/science-climate-change.html

How Scientists Got Climate Change So Wrong
Few thought it would arrive so quickly. Now we’re facing consequences once viewed as fringe scenarios.
By Eugene Linden
Nov. 8, 2019

For decades, most scientists saw climate change as a distant prospect. We now know that thinking was wrong. This summer, for instance, a heat wave in Europe penetrated the Arctic, pushing temperatures into the 80s across much of the Far North and, according to the Belgian climate scientist Xavier Fettweis, melting some 40 billion tons of Greenland’s ice sheet.

Had a scientist in the early 1990s suggested that within 25 years a single heat wave would measurably raise sea levels, at an estimated two one-hundredths of an inch, bake the Arctic and produce Sahara-like temperatures in Paris and Berlin, the prediction would have been dismissed as alarmist. But many worst-case scenarios from that time are now realities.

So far, the costs of underestimation have been enormous. New York City’s subway system did not flood in its first 108 years, but Hurricane Sandy’s 2012 storm surge caused nearly $5 billion in water damage, much of which is still not repaired. In 2017, Hurricane Harvey gave Houston and the surrounding region a $125 billion lesson about the costs of misjudging the potential for floods.

The climate change panel seems finally to have caught up with the gravity of the climate crisis. Last year, the organization detailed the extraordinary difficulty of limiting warming to 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius), over the next 80 years, and the grim consequences that will result even if that goal is met.

More likely, a separate United Nations report concluded, we are headed for warming of at least 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit. That will come with almost unimaginable damage to economies and ecosystems. Unfortunately, this dose of reality arrives more than 30 years after human-caused climate change became a mainstream issue.

The word “upended” does not do justice to the revolution in climate science wrought by the discovery of sudden climate change. The realization that the global climate can swing between warm and cold periods in a matter of decades or even less came as a profound shock to scientists who thought those shifts took hundreds if not thousands of years.








12 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
How Scientists Got Climate Change So Wrong (NYT) (Original Post) dalton99a Nov 2019 OP
Just about the shittiest headline imaginable . . . hatrack Nov 2019 #1
Yeah OMG TheFarseer Nov 2019 #2
Your dad Delphinus Nov 2019 #7
My thoughts, exactly! CrispyQ Nov 2019 #4
Totally agree. JDC Nov 2019 #9
My reaction as well. VOX Nov 2019 #11
The scientists haven't gotten it wrong WhiteTara Nov 2019 #3
"climate change" sounds so benign - it's global warming Blues Heron Nov 2019 #5
Seriously TheFarseer Nov 2019 #6
I think the rakes have all been sent to the forest . . . hatrack Nov 2019 #10
I hate thos fucking leaf blowers. triron Nov 2019 #8
During the Cretaceous, CO2 was above 1000ppm and there were no ice caps. roamer65 Nov 2019 #12

hatrack

(59,439 posts)
1. Just about the shittiest headline imaginable . . .
Sat Nov 9, 2019, 12:50 PM
Nov 2019

Next comes the Climate Clown Chorus shouting "See!?!! See!!??!! See??!!"

They don't need to actually read the article, which they'd never do anyway.

The fact that the article is right on target in terms of the degree of underestimation is immaterial.

Great job, Gray Lady.

TheFarseer

(9,308 posts)
2. Yeah OMG
Sat Nov 9, 2019, 12:55 PM
Nov 2019

I bet 90% of people read no further than the headline and now think climate change was a hoax all along.

My dad, and I wish I was making this up, is convinced we are in global cooling. Don’t make me go into why. Your head will explode.

Delphinus

(11,808 posts)
7. Your dad
Sat Nov 9, 2019, 01:44 PM
Nov 2019

is not the only one. I have run across them myself. Never have I received a satisfactory explanation.

VOX

(22,976 posts)
11. My reaction as well.
Sat Nov 9, 2019, 03:47 PM
Nov 2019

Like it’s tailor-made for the Fox News chiron: “NY Times: Scientists admit they’re wrong about climate change!”

WhiteTara

(29,676 posts)
3. The scientists haven't gotten it wrong
Sat Nov 9, 2019, 12:56 PM
Nov 2019

Rachel Carson raised the cry in the 70s and the only good thing Nixon did was start the EPA; but money and politics shut the scientists up and that's how we got here.

Big Oil. Rex Tillerson, et.al

Blues Heron

(5,898 posts)
5. "climate change" sounds so benign - it's global warming
Sat Nov 9, 2019, 01:12 PM
Nov 2019

catastrophic global warming caused by coal, oil and gas burning by humans.

I think we should start by banning gas powered landscaping equipment. Talk about frivolous. The leaf blowers are the worst - pure unmitigated frivolous pollution right there in your face.

TheFarseer

(9,308 posts)
6. Seriously
Sat Nov 9, 2019, 01:41 PM
Nov 2019

What’s wrong with a rake? On another topic but what’s up with people painstakingly hosing off their driveway? Much quicker with a push broom and not wasting gallons of water!

roamer65

(36,739 posts)
12. During the Cretaceous, CO2 was above 1000ppm and there were no ice caps.
Sat Nov 9, 2019, 05:35 PM
Nov 2019

Seas were about 100m higher than today.

Then came an asteroid or comet. A repeat would probably be the best thing for Earth.

Latest Discussions»General Discussion»How Scientists Got Climat...