Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

RandySF

(57,592 posts)
Fri Feb 7, 2020, 09:36 PM Feb 2020

Democrats sound alarm on Trump: 'He can win again'

(CNN)House Democrats are sounding alarms that a prolonged fight for their party's presidential nomination will only serve to bolster President Donald Trump's reelection prospects, as many in their party grow anxious in the aftermath of his impeachment trial.

Democrats still believe their party will ultimately unite and get behind a candidate who will take back the White House. But a series of events this week, including the debacle in the Iowa caucuses, the strong jobs report and the near-total GOP loyalty to Trump during the impeachment fight have some saying their party needs to wake up to the reality that Trump stands a strong chance of winning again.

"I think Iowa made nobody happy -- everybody is ready to move on. New Hampshire is next week and we are moving forward," said Rep. Debbie Dingell, a Michigan Democrat. She added: "He can win again ... I've been saying it for a while."

"We shouldn't underestimate him," said Rep. Ro Khanna, a California Democrat and Bernie Sanders supporter. "Only eight American incumbent presidents have ever lost. It's always a challenge to defeat an American president. But he has a lot of glaring weaknesses."

While Democrats hope to exploit those weaknesses, they recognize that this week's events underscore the tall task ahead. The problems with the Iowa caucuses reinforced the belief that the party's nominating contest could last for months, and even extend to the Democratic National Convention in July without a clear winner.

Plus, a Gallup poll showed Trump's job approval at 49%, the highest of his presidency, just before the GOP-led Senate voted to acquit him on charges of high crimes and misdemeanors over his dealings with Ukraine. The State of the Union address offered an opportunity for Trump to tout his message before a prime-time audience, while Democrats privately acknowledge that their message has been muddled, particularly without a clear leader at the top of the ticket.




https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/07/politics/democrats-trump-reaction/index.html

16 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Democrats sound alarm on Trump: 'He can win again' (Original Post) RandySF Feb 2020 OP
By cheating and stealing it . . . Iliyah Feb 2020 #1
ugh Demovictory9 Feb 2020 #2
"We shouldn't underestimate him" is a key statement. TwilightZone Feb 2020 #3
But I think huge difference in national approval rating of 45% and Laura PourMeADrink Feb 2020 #5
Trump can't be at 45% on 538 on election day Awsi Dooger Feb 2020 #7
That is EXACTLY right AD! I remember reading that Laura PourMeADrink Feb 2020 #9
35% ain't happening. TwilightZone Feb 2020 #8
Ya the 45 and 35 we're just examples. Better stated Laura PourMeADrink Feb 2020 #10
OF course he can win durablend Feb 2020 #4
Boy, he has that wrong bdamomma Feb 2020 #12
We must beat Trump Joinfortmill Feb 2020 #6
Can't Allow That colsohlibgal Feb 2020 #11
I think he's going to win again. OliverQ Feb 2020 #13
If he steals it again the day after there will be secessionist movements that form. roamer65 Feb 2020 #14
The idea that we need to short-circuit the primaries is how we got Hillary Azathoth Feb 2020 #15
He can win again? No shit. Damn right he can win again. Captain Stern Feb 2020 #16

TwilightZone

(25,342 posts)
3. "We shouldn't underestimate him" is a key statement.
Fri Feb 7, 2020, 09:47 PM
Feb 2020

There is no doubt that there is some moderate, documented, right-leaning bias in some polls but the reality of the situation is that Trump's approval is inexplicably high and inexplicably stable long-term. It doesn't make any sense to us, but denying it isn't going to help us.

That being said, his national approval ratings are meaningless. What 2020 will boil down to is a few states, similar if not identical to 2016, that will swing the electoral vote one way or another. Those are the states that matter the most, keeping in mind that we need to keep all of the solid blue/blue-leaning ones, as well.

His national approval ratings are meaningless. Yes, I repeated myself. His approval ratings, both national and at the state level, do not directly correlate to votes or lack thereof. Plenty of people disapproved of him in 2016 and voted for him anyway, for a wide variety of reasons.

 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
5. But I think huge difference in national approval rating of 45% and
Fri Feb 7, 2020, 09:55 PM
Feb 2020

one of 35%

I think all polls matter..daily, state, and national approvals and matchups, and generic, and right/wrong direction. All of them have different angles.

 

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)
7. Trump can't be at 45% on 538 on election day
Fri Feb 7, 2020, 10:19 PM
Feb 2020

He's going to receive at least 3% higher popular vote than his 538 number. I think we can win if he is at 43% on 538 because that would translate to 46% range again, like 2016. But if Trump is at 45% on 538 and receives a full 48% of the national popular vote I don't see how we win the electoral college, given how those midwestern states relate to the nation itself.

I realize there is stubbornness and denial. Everyone wants to skew his poll numbers lower instead of recognizing his actual vote percentage will be considerably above the 538 poll averaging.

The risk in impeachment was that emerging could be so easily spun as victory, and translate to uptick in approval rating. It's still early but I would fully except that outcome. The typical uninformed citizen is going to rationalize that since he wasn't convicted then everything was fine. Details mean nothing to people like that, and they vote. Those are the ones who decide elections.

I was initially flabbergasted when I hosted debate watching parties in Las Vegas regarding what the people in my living room were reacting to and what they were saying. The talking heads got it wrong almost without exception.

I'm rooting for Trump to keep saying and doing enough outrageous things to keep his approval at 43% level on 538 approaching November. IMO, nothing else matters. Our primaries are mostly trivia. We need the incumbent to blow his advantage.

 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
9. That is EXACTLY right AD! I remember reading that
Fri Feb 7, 2020, 10:33 PM
Feb 2020

45% is doomsday but can't remember where I read it. I'd like to see him where he was at the end of 2017, under 40! Because you also have to factor in cheating.

TwilightZone

(25,342 posts)
8. 35% ain't happening.
Fri Feb 7, 2020, 10:32 PM
Feb 2020

He hasn't been under 40% average in two years and he's never been under 37%. Nothing he's done thus far has had any significant impact, and there's little evidence that anything will. The cult shows no signs of turning on their leader.

Unless there's a major downturn in the economy or some earth-shaking event or revelation, he'll be within 2-3 points of 43% until November, as he's been pretty much since day one.

As noted, for the most part, it's irrelevant. Approval or lack thereof doesn't directly relate to votes. His vote total in 2016 was several points higher than his approval rating. We already know he can win at 38% approval - he did that in 2016.

The only way to counter it is to get out the vote, especially in states that are going to be the closest.

 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
10. Ya the 45 and 35 we're just examples. Better stated
Fri Feb 7, 2020, 10:36 PM
Feb 2020

Would be high and low.

I hadn't heard that. His approval at election was 38% ??

durablend

(7,415 posts)
4. OF course he can win
Fri Feb 7, 2020, 09:48 PM
Feb 2020

He could go on national teevee the night before the election, say "VOTE FOR DEMOCRATS AND YOU WILL DIE!" and voila.

bdamomma

(63,650 posts)
12. Boy, he has that wrong
Sat Feb 8, 2020, 12:10 AM
Feb 2020

tRump is doing evil to us everyday. From now until Nov. tRump will screw himself he always does. More tax hikes for the rich, abolishing health care , Social security, we are going to be in a world of hurt. We need to band together for us and our planet, it's a matter of survival the stakes are that high.

colsohlibgal

(5,275 posts)
11. Can't Allow That
Fri Feb 7, 2020, 11:41 PM
Feb 2020

If we all enthusiastically support whoever is nominated and get out and vote. I have lately voted early it is easy, there are always people outside the building offering material showing who the democrats are among the races with no party listed.

If we can turn the Senate, keep the House, and put a sane person in the White House we can start reclaiming our Nation.

 

OliverQ

(3,363 posts)
13. I think he's going to win again.
Sat Feb 8, 2020, 12:16 AM
Feb 2020

I'm not sure the Dems can unify enough to stop him and he's going to cheat like crazy.

roamer65

(36,739 posts)
14. If he steals it again the day after there will be secessionist movements that form.
Sat Feb 8, 2020, 12:19 AM
Feb 2020

CA, NY and New England will be the first ones.

I think there will be a governor’s conference convened pretty quick by those states and others.

Azathoth

(4,603 posts)
15. The idea that we need to short-circuit the primaries is how we got Hillary
Sat Feb 8, 2020, 12:40 AM
Feb 2020

The party worked to chase every other credible candidate out of the race. Bernie, the seventy year old quixotic socialist, was the only one who slipped past and ended up carrying the progressive banner by default.

This time we have a legitimate contest. The models are being inspected and test driven before the party decides on a non-refundable purchase. Whoever emerges as the winner will be entitled to claim they were properly vetted and won on their own merits and not just because voters saw no viable alternative. And they will also be able to claim a mandate for their vision of the party, be it progressive or centrist.

That's a healthy thing, and it makes us stronger in the long run.

Captain Stern

(2,195 posts)
16. He can win again? No shit. Damn right he can win again.
Sat Feb 8, 2020, 12:52 AM
Feb 2020

He won in 2016 when he wasn't the incumbent. In 2020 he's the incumbent.

As things stand, trump is the favorite to win. It's his election to lose.

Anybody that thinks that that isn't the case hasn't been paying attention.

Everybody that supports trump is going to go vote for him. We need everybody that doesn't support him to go vote too.

Latest Discussions»General Discussion»Democrats sound alarm on ...