HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Main » General Discussion (Forum) » Coronavirus Could Overwhe...

Sat Mar 21, 2020, 09:57 AM

Coronavirus Could Overwhelm U.S. Without Urgent Action, Estimates Say

By James Glanz, Lauren Leatherby, Matthew Bloch, Mitch Smith, Larry Buchanan, Jin Wu and Nicholas Bogel-Burroughs

March 20, 2020


The coronavirus has infected far more people in the United States than testing has shown so far, and stringent measures to limit social contact in parts of the country not yet seeing many cases are needed to significantly stem the tide of illness and death in the coming months.

Those are the conclusions of Columbia University researchers who used a New York Times database of known cases and Census Bureau transportation data to model how the outbreak could evolve based on what is known about the virus. The estimates are inherently uncertain, and they could change as America adopts unprecedented measures to control the outbreak.

But they offer a stark warning: Even if the country cut its rate of transmission in half — a tall order — some 650,000 people might become infected in the next two months.

The growth is driven by Americans with mild symptoms who are carrying and spreading the virus without being aware that they have it, the researchers say. The number of undetected cases — 11 times more than has been officially reported, they estimate — reflects how far behind the United States has fallen in testing for the virus.

New York City, Seattle, Boston and parts of California already have such large outbreaks that they will probably see significant growth even after taking extraordinary measures over the past week, the researchers say. New York City’s outbreak, the nation’s largest, grew to more than 4,000 known cases on Friday and is likely to increase many times over even in a favorable scenario.

How Control Measures Could Slow the Outbreak

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/20/us/coronavirus-model-us-outbreak.html

3 replies, 565 views

Reply to this thread

Back to top Alert abuse

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 3 replies Author Time Post
Reply Coronavirus Could Overwhelm U.S. Without Urgent Action, Estimates Say (Original post)
BeckyDem Mar 2020 OP
RhodeIslandOne Mar 2020 #1
BeckyDem Mar 2020 #2
uponit7771 Mar 2020 #3

Response to BeckyDem (Original post)

Sat Mar 21, 2020, 10:00 AM

1. This article seems like it should be weeks old.

 

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to RhodeIslandOne (Reply #1)

Sat Mar 21, 2020, 10:09 AM

2. Yes and the con man in the WH should have zero poll numbers on his handling of it.

But he doesn't.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to BeckyDem (Original post)

Sat Mar 21, 2020, 10:18 AM

3. K&R, ...No testing, ...no isolation... equals no recovery

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink

Reply to this thread