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BigmanPigman

(51,432 posts)
Sat Apr 11, 2020, 07:34 PM Apr 2020

For how long do "covid plateaus" last?

There are "new case" plateaus and "death" plateaus, but how long are these plateaus? What are the factors in determining them? When do they decline and or/increase again?

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

"Researchers had predicted the US death toll would hit its peak on Friday and then gradually start to decline, falling to around 970 people a day by 1 May - the day members of the Trump administration have floated as a possible date to start reopening the economy."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52249963

18 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies

jimfields33

(15,473 posts)
4. I honestly think June 1st will be the day everything opens
Sat Apr 11, 2020, 08:01 PM
Apr 2020

I think that is reasonable and will make everyone happy.

The Velveteen Ocelot

(115,280 posts)
6. I think that's crazy. This is going to go on for a very long time
Sat Apr 11, 2020, 08:03 PM
Apr 2020

and what gets opened and when will depend on circumstances and locations. If everything opens up at once there will be a big new wave of disease that could be as bad as the first, or worse. That's what happened in the Spanish Flu epidemic.

jimfields33

(15,473 posts)
8. 14 days quarenteen is what there saying to stop the spread
Sat Apr 11, 2020, 08:06 PM
Apr 2020

No way will it go beyond that. How will people survive? On what?

The Velveteen Ocelot

(115,280 posts)
11. Who's "they"? We already know that "they" don't know what they're talking about
Sat Apr 11, 2020, 08:11 PM
Apr 2020

and that there are many things that are still unknown. I haven't left home in four weeks and I'm fine. I have no intention of breaking my quarantine until there is either a treatment or a vaccine. That could be a year from now. This will not be close to over by June 1 and any so-called scientist that claims otherwise is completely ignorant about epidemiology.

 

BGBD

(3,282 posts)
15. It's too contagious
Sat Apr 11, 2020, 11:25 PM
Apr 2020

without social distancing or a vaccine it is going to begin rapidly increasing the moment people being to interact again.

Two options until there is either a vaccine or reliable therapeutics.

1: Continue social distancing.

2: Accept anywhere from a few hundred thousand to a couple million additional deaths in the US.

Maybe, I mean maybe if we had a highly aggressive testing regime in place we could contain the virus before it grows into a wildfire. However, I don't think we are capable of it and I'm not sure at all that the dynamics of the virus would even make it possible to catch early enough cases to spot an outbreak before it happens.

NickB79

(19,114 posts)
18. That's assuming a complete quarantine
Sat Apr 11, 2020, 11:42 PM
Apr 2020

With most Americans still working, going to grocery stores and ordering take out, we'll have COVID with us until a vaccine is deployed.

Response to The Velveteen Ocelot (Reply #1)

Response to BigmanPigman (Original post)

Initech

(99,915 posts)
7. Back in 1918 they didn't have Fox News either.
Sat Apr 11, 2020, 08:06 PM
Apr 2020

So churches could stay closed. I swear they're gearing up to torpedo the lock downs. Their calls to reopen the economy are getting more intense and unified, and I'm worried that Trump is going to cave and we'll be right back to square one, which will infinitely be worse than if we ride this thing out now as it is.

jimfields33

(15,473 posts)
10. Michigan Governor just said outside services can occur
Sat Apr 11, 2020, 08:11 PM
Apr 2020

Not sure if that’s good or bad. I guess if they set each chair six feet apart it might work.

womanofthehills

(8,584 posts)
17. It will not work - esp if people sing
Sat Apr 11, 2020, 11:40 PM
Apr 2020

The latest out of China is that 6 ft is too close for the finer droplets. The finer droplets can travel over 20 feet on a draft.

D_Master81

(1,822 posts)
9. Italy is about 3 weeks ahead of us
Sat Apr 11, 2020, 08:10 PM
Apr 2020

They peaked several weeks ago at about 900 dead a day and are now between 500/600 a day. So it’s hard to say how long till it’s over but I expect to see a thousand dead a day minimum for close to a month.

 

Steelrolled

(2,022 posts)
14. Fortunately if you compare the US with the
Sat Apr 11, 2020, 11:13 PM
Apr 2020

three of the hardest hit countries, Italy, Spain, and Belgium, the US is trending lower given where we are in the process.

 

Steelrolled

(2,022 posts)
13. The states ordered the lock downs so I suppose they will lift them.
Sat Apr 11, 2020, 11:06 PM
Apr 2020

It's just as well because I imagine the circumstances vary a lot between states.

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