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coti

(4,612 posts)
Wed Apr 15, 2020, 09:06 PM Apr 2020

It looks to me like the curves got bent downward slightly but are starting to rise again

The graphs below are here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


I think the rapid response to the outbreaks in CA, NY, and other hard-hit areas with reality-based governors bent the curve downward, but huge parts of the country still haven't acted and the downward bend isn't continuing. In fact, in the last several days the curve bent back up again.

The country isn't even close to ready to reopen. In fact, the death curve is continuing to accelerate.





As they say, the first step to recovery is admitting you have a problem. The Trump and his Rebootlickers haven't had the strength to accept what we're being faced with yet. The virus is going to make them pay for their ignorance dearly.


13 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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CountAllVotes

(20,854 posts)
1. Someone wondered if/when Phase #2 will begin
Wed Apr 15, 2020, 09:14 PM
Apr 2020

My reply was "I do not believe that Phase #1 ever fully began much less did it end".

That is the reality of this, it is called a Global Pandemic for a reason!

Phase #2 ... yeah right.



sfstaxprep

(9,998 posts)
2. The Rest Of World Is Laughing At Us....And Crying....
Wed Apr 15, 2020, 09:14 PM
Apr 2020

We're going to manage to have multiple bends in the curve. It's going to start going down, then will level off or increase, due to the completely disorganized response by our Federal Govt.

I was wondering whether this would happen. We'll see in the coming days.

backscatter712

(26,355 posts)
3. The best way to look at these sorts of graphs is logarithmically.
Wed Apr 15, 2020, 09:24 PM
Apr 2020

You want the Y axis to be exponential - 1, 10, 100, 1000, 10000, etc.

That actually does a good job of showing you where the bug may be going.

I'd say the curve is starting to bend, and we have Cuomo, and other Democratic governors like mine (Polis of CO) to thank for that. They had the sense to hold firm until the people who know math and science say it's OK.

Of course, now we have Trump and a whole bunch of smoothbrained GOP governors who are now acting like the mayor in Jaws... If they open things up too early, we're gonna see these graphs spike up again.

coti

(4,612 posts)
9. Log scales aren't necessary right for the moment because the y-value range is plenty narrow
Wed Apr 15, 2020, 09:52 PM
Apr 2020

Though, the point of my post is that they might indeed be needed again in a couple of weeks. It certainly looks like the downward curve in the daily new cases decelerated and began re-bending upward over the last several days (as the virus continued spreading into more rural parts of the country, possibly).

uponit7771

(90,225 posts)
4. Does lack of testing affect the curve? It seems if they want to flatten the curve artificially just
Wed Apr 15, 2020, 09:26 PM
Apr 2020

... don't test as many people.

Somethings wrong here

Ms. Toad

(33,915 posts)
8. The CDC has changed the criteria for classification.
Wed Apr 15, 2020, 09:50 PM
Apr 2020

Testing is no longer required to be classified as COVID 19 in some cases.

Any test will do (including an antibody that shows you have had it in the past).
Also if you are epidemically at risk (you've been exposed to a confirmed case of COVID 19) and you have symptoms with no other explanation your case is to be reported as COVID 19.

It's still not enough - but it is a step in the right direction. It is also why the deaths the last few days have gone up - NY is re-classifying deaths - primarily those that meet the second standard. All those show up as new deaths - even though the death is not new (merely the classification)

gristy

(10,667 posts)
5. Log scale on the y-axis for these charts is needed.
Wed Apr 15, 2020, 09:43 PM
Apr 2020

Somebody has an agenda with these on a linear axis. What the heck is worldometers, anyways? I'm afraid to even click on the link.

coti

(4,612 posts)
7. No, it's not needed unless you start having y-values with full orders of magnitude in difference.
Wed Apr 15, 2020, 09:49 PM
Apr 2020

The numbers are similar enough for now that day-to-day velocity and acceleration are plain to see.

Ms. Toad

(33,915 posts)
10. worldometers is one of the better sites avalable.
Wed Apr 15, 2020, 09:54 PM
Apr 2020

It is well-documented, updated at a consistent time daily, and transparent when it makes a mistake.

Nothing wrong with a linear scale - most people don't have a clue what a log scale does, so it would be more misleading if they were purely on a log scale.

But you can just click on logarithmic if you want to see it. No agenda. Just by default presenting the information in the format most people expect to see it.

Ms. Toad

(33,915 posts)
6. The curve is still bending
Wed Apr 15, 2020, 09:46 PM
Apr 2020

Switch to the logarithmic view and line a paper or ruler up along the straight line. You'll see the top of the curve continues to pull away from your straight edge.

You're right, though, that we are not ready to open up - and that both deaths and new cases are still accelerating. Bending the curve does not mean decelerating - it means slowin the rate of acceleration. (Until the daily multiplier is 1.0 or lower, there will continue to be both more new cases and more new deaths than the prior day.)

Here are the daily multipliers since 3/22, when the curve started bending. Notice that with the exception of the bolded multipliers, each one is smaller than the prior day, and that even on those few days when it increased the increase was less than 1% (.01). That what bending the curve means. We're coming closer to straight line growth (multiplier = 1.0) (and after than comes an actual decrease in new cases):

1.385797497 (3/22)
1.303732189
1.253526924
1.244204075
1.252510592
1.218774507
1.186812131
1.149452168
1.15344921
1.150667708
1.140417971
1.138946898
1.131837616
1.123379552
1.081308594
1.090090384
1.090821898

1.08640492
1.077344014
1.073223409
1.059662819
1.051458211
1.047547742
1.04590751
1.049199689

The death curve is not as consistent on a day-to-day basis, but shows the same downward trend starting around March 27:

1.308880309 (3/27)
1.315044248
1.158815612
1.216027875
1.290035021

1.259378085
1.190672154
1.17198815
1.186911951
1.137718883
1.130511647
1.181216079
1.151623705
1.128685421
1.123180157
1.097615618
1.074257666
1.069441303
1.101818951
1.095289285


The last two are artificially high (and some earlier ones are artificially low) because of the reclassification over the last few days of previous deaths as COVID 19 deaths - due to the change in classification criteria imposed last Friday). On Worldometers (and other sites), new deaths show up on the day they are reported - even if they are reclassified from prior days. The numbers being reclassified are large enough to temporarily distort the curve.

But way too many people dont' realize that bending the curve does not mean we're out of the woods. It merely means we've eased off on the accelerator a bit - we're still going faster and faster, but we no longer have it absolutely floored as we're heading for a brick wall.



doc03

(35,148 posts)
11. The site I have been monitoring infection2020.com numbers have corresponded with
Wed Apr 15, 2020, 10:41 PM
Apr 2020

the numbers that have been reported on the media until today. Today the MSM has been reporting over 30000 deaths
but that site reports 28450 I wonder why the sudden difference today. I see the one in the op has 28529. Why are they 2000
off from what MSNBC is reporting.

global1

(25,169 posts)
13. It May Be Easing In Some Of The Hot Spots.....
Wed Apr 15, 2020, 11:30 PM
Apr 2020

but new hot spots are developing because Gov's didn't close down their State's. As a result - this is going to be with us for a long time.

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