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kentuck

(110,950 posts)
Thu Apr 16, 2020, 07:03 PM Apr 2020

When the economy is opened back up, how long before we will see a spike in CV-19 cases?

From what I have read, it can take 10-15 days to show symptoms?

So the moral of the story is, don't do anything different until two weeks have passed. Then you can be more assured that there is not going to be a spike in new cases.

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When the economy is opened back up, how long before we will see a spike in CV-19 cases? (Original Post) kentuck Apr 2020 OP
Two weeks is only the nose of the camel in the tent. Another two and it shitting on the silks. . .nt Bernardo de La Paz Apr 2020 #1
We have to assume that there will be a second wave of the coronavirus cases Poiuyt Apr 2020 #2
It is inevitable. Ace Rothstein Apr 2020 #8
i think we'd have to double that 2 weeks to see the full resulting peak 0rganism Apr 2020 #3
You may be right. kentuck Apr 2020 #5
or we could just test everyone frequently 0rganism Apr 2020 #13
I agree. But I don't think it would be the full peak. A second peak could be worse than the first.nt Bernardo de La Paz Apr 2020 #14
true though it will be much more difficult to attribute causality that far out 0rganism Apr 2020 #25
About 3-4 weeks. roamer65 Apr 2020 #4
how is Tennessee and Iowa plus Tex Ass opening the country up? gibraltar72 Apr 2020 #6
The continued stay at home states need to shut off any travel from the "open" states. roamer65 Apr 2020 #9
Cases still rising in TN SheltieLover Apr 2020 #16
I am hiding from the vaccine for awhile until it is proven out. I don't feel like being an LiberalArkie Apr 2020 #7
Oh yeah! kentuck Apr 2020 #11
I agree! lkinwi Apr 2020 #12
I'm with you on this, LuberalArkie! SheltieLover Apr 2020 #18
3 weeks BGBD Apr 2020 #10
It will depend on many things DrToast Apr 2020 #15
The real problem is trying to end infections completely. Until that occurs we're all hosts ffr Apr 2020 #17
Today. tavernier Apr 2020 #19
Spike in maybe 6 days DFW Apr 2020 #20
+1, the CDC raised the Ro of CV19 to 5.7 ... that's horribly infectious uponit7771 Apr 2020 #22
That's what makes the "reported" statistics so far so woefully inadequate DFW Apr 2020 #24
Yes. I have heard that for the common flu the RO is .1 of 1% or 1 out of a thousand. kentuck Apr 2020 #26
3 weeks before shit hits the fan !!! uponit7771 Apr 2020 #21
we haven't seen the peak.. stillcool Apr 2020 #23
Won't see the spike if there's not enough testing. nt wiggs Apr 2020 #27
Five days. That's when some people first show symptoms. Squinch Apr 2020 #28

Poiuyt

(18,087 posts)
2. We have to assume that there will be a second wave of the coronavirus cases
Thu Apr 16, 2020, 07:11 PM
Apr 2020

It is stabilizing now because we've been isolating ourselves. Once we go back to life, there will certainly be a surge in cases.

Ace Rothstein

(3,110 posts)
8. It is inevitable.
Thu Apr 16, 2020, 07:15 PM
Apr 2020

There are too many cases at this point and since waiting around like we are now for a vaccine isn't feasible, waves will continue to happen.

0rganism

(23,856 posts)
3. i think we'd have to double that 2 weeks to see the full resulting peak
Thu Apr 16, 2020, 07:11 PM
Apr 2020

since someone who's exposed on day 14 might not get sick until day 28

so 4 weeks minimum

0rganism

(23,856 posts)
13. or we could just test everyone frequently
Thu Apr 16, 2020, 07:23 PM
Apr 2020

but for some reason that's not a priority, even though it's the bare minimum we have to do to "re-open" in a credibly safe manner

Trump's corruption of the CDC is tragic

0rganism

(23,856 posts)
25. true though it will be much more difficult to attribute causality that far out
Thu Apr 16, 2020, 07:35 PM
Apr 2020

regardless, we are about to get our asses kicked hard, Sweden-style
and unfortunately it won't just hurt the MAGAt morons who pushed us into this

roamer65

(36,739 posts)
4. About 3-4 weeks.
Thu Apr 16, 2020, 07:12 PM
Apr 2020

Someone near the end of infectability at 14 days will encounter an uninfected person who then incubates the virus for 14 days. The latter travels.

Shazam the virus slips through the cracks in the plan.

gibraltar72

(7,486 posts)
6. how is Tennessee and Iowa plus Tex Ass opening the country up?
Thu Apr 16, 2020, 07:13 PM
Apr 2020

The sane Governors aren't going to until Doctors tell them it's OK. A handfull of poor Republican states ain't gonna save his bacon er maybe lard is a better word.

roamer65

(36,739 posts)
9. The continued stay at home states need to shut off any travel from the "open" states.
Thu Apr 16, 2020, 07:15 PM
Apr 2020

They represent a risk of virus transfer.

SheltieLover

(57,073 posts)
16. Cases still rising in TN
Thu Apr 16, 2020, 07:25 PM
Apr 2020

Vanderbilt projects TN surge mid-June *if* current protections remain in place.

LiberalArkie

(15,686 posts)
7. I am hiding from the vaccine for awhile until it is proven out. I don't feel like being an
Thu Apr 16, 2020, 07:14 PM
Apr 2020

early adopter zombie.

kentuck

(110,950 posts)
11. Oh yeah!
Thu Apr 16, 2020, 07:15 PM
Apr 2020

It affects so many parts of the body, not just the lungs. That may be why there are re-occurrences in people that got the virus?

 

BGBD

(3,282 posts)
10. 3 weeks
Thu Apr 16, 2020, 07:15 PM
Apr 2020

you wI'll see the spike start inside of 3 weeks after with more growth after that as 2nd, 3re, and 4th generation infections start showing up.

How hard would it be to start stay at home again after it has been lifted? IDK.

DrToast

(6,414 posts)
15. It will depend on many things
Thu Apr 16, 2020, 07:25 PM
Apr 2020

Will everyone be wearing masks? (Hopefully.)

Will people still be observing social distancing when they can? (Hopefully)

I imagine it will move much slower through the population the second time around, but yeah, it will come back.

ffr

(22,649 posts)
17. The real problem is trying to end infections completely. Until that occurs we're all hosts
Thu Apr 16, 2020, 07:26 PM
Apr 2020

in waiting.

DFW

(54,057 posts)
20. Spike in maybe 6 days
Thu Apr 16, 2020, 07:28 PM
Apr 2020

Peak in anywhere from 20 to 100

One person who is infected but doesn't know it can be the source of 500 infections or more before he or she knows that they have passed it on.

DFW

(54,057 posts)
24. That's what makes the "reported" statistics so far so woefully inadequate
Thu Apr 16, 2020, 07:34 PM
Apr 2020

Until everybody or almost everybody can get tested, and for ALL varieties, then we really don't know anywhere enough of what we need to get the spread under control--if that is even possible at this point. We are not New Zealand.

kentuck

(110,950 posts)
26. Yes. I have heard that for the common flu the RO is .1 of 1% or 1 out of a thousand.
Thu Apr 16, 2020, 07:42 PM
Apr 2020

This would mean it is 570 times more contagious than the common flu.

stillcool

(32,626 posts)
23. we haven't seen the peak..
Thu Apr 16, 2020, 07:33 PM
Apr 2020

yet in a lot of places, and with no testing, maybe it'll just be a steady stream of massive death.

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