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coti

(4,612 posts)
Fri Apr 17, 2020, 09:08 PM Apr 2020

Stanford Study: More than 48,000 already infected with COVID-19 in Santa Clara County- HUGE NEWS.

This is a bombshell:

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/04/17/coronavirus-2-5-to-4-2-of-santa-clara-county-residents-infected-stanford-estimates/

In a startling finding, new Stanford research reveals between 48,000 and 81,000 people in Santa Clara County alone may already have been infected by the coronavirus by early April — that’s 50 to 85 times more than the number of official cases at that date.

The estimate comes from a first-in-the-nation community study of newly available antibody tests that suggest how widespread the invisible — and perhaps benign — companion has been in the Bay Area’s hardest-hit county. Not only do the numbers show how the U.S.’s severe shortage of testing led to a profound undercount of COVID-19 cases, they indicate the virus is far less deadly than believed.

Just how much of an undercount? Stanford’s low-end estimate of Santa Clara County cases is nearly double the confirmed total — 28,000 — for the entire state of California. The study estimated 2.5% to 4.2% of residents here carry antibodies to the pathogen, a marker of past infection that suggests it may be safe for them to go back to work and school.


The research also implies that the death rate is far lower than believed. At the time of research, 39 county residents had died — a fatality rate, based on estimated infections, of only 0.12 to 0.2%. California’s assumed death rate, based only on confirmed cases, is 3%.



We need antibody tests for everyone NOW.
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Bernardo de La Paz

(48,789 posts)
3. Most probably had such mild exposure they never knew. Detectable levels antibodies not same as
Fri Apr 17, 2020, 09:17 PM
Apr 2020

Detectable levels of antibodies is not the same immunotherapeutic levels of antibodies.

 

jberryhill

(62,444 posts)
4. As noted in the article itself
Fri Apr 17, 2020, 09:23 PM
Apr 2020

“Having antibodies” and “having immunity” may or may not define coextensive sets.

RockRaven

(14,784 posts)
2. This is in line with that (German? IIRC) report from about a week ago which estimated the TRUE
Fri Apr 17, 2020, 09:15 PM
Apr 2020

case number in the US, at the time, at 26 million.

BigmanPigman

(51,432 posts)
5. Am I correct in assuming that it is more contagious but less deadly
Fri Apr 17, 2020, 09:39 PM
Apr 2020

than we had been told previously by scientists??

BigmanPigman

(51,432 posts)
16. I sort of understood the chart until I go to this...
Sat Apr 18, 2020, 03:53 AM
Apr 2020

Influenza
(1918 pandemic strain) Airborne droplet 1.4–2.8

I thought The Spanish Flu was a lot more contagious than Covid. I know it was a lot deadlier.

Measles Airborne 12-18. (The worst on the list)

COVID-19 Airborne droplet 1.4–5.7

Yonnie3

(17,376 posts)
6. Sixty percent of positives on aircraft carrier are not symptomatic
Fri Apr 17, 2020, 09:41 PM
Apr 2020

This is not antibody testing!

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/coronavirus-clue-most-cases-aboard-us-aircraft-carrier-are-symptom-free/ar-BB12Jojz

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Sweeping testing of the entire crew of the coronavirus-stricken U.S. aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt may have revealed a clue about the pandemic: The majority of the positive cases so far are among sailors who are asymptomatic, officials say.

The possibility that the coronavirus spreads in a mostly stealthy mode among a population of largely young, healthy people showing no symptoms could have major implications for U.S. policy-makers, who are considering how and when to reopen the economy.

It also renews questions about the extent to which U.S. testing of just the people suspected of being infected is actually capturing the spread of the virus in the United States and around the world.
Click here for complete coronavirus coverage on the Microsoft News app on Windows 10, iOS and Android

The Navy's testing of the entire 4,800-member crew of the aircraft carrier - which is about 94% complete - was an extraordinary move in a headline-grabbing case that has already led to the firing of the carrier's captain and the resignation of the Navy's top civilian official.

Roughly 60 percent of the over 600 sailors who tested positive so far have not shown symptoms of COVID-19, the potentially lethal respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus, the Navy says. The service did not speculate about how many might later develop symptoms or remain asymptomatic.

<snip>
 

BGBD

(3,282 posts)
12. Hmm
Fri Apr 17, 2020, 10:04 PM
Apr 2020

These numbers don't match up.

If 50x, like is mentioned in the Stanford study is right it should be more like 98% of cases were asymptomatic. I wonder if that discrepancy is just especially mild illness being prevalent among the symptomatic cases. The kind of sick that you might not visit a Dr for. Just sore throat, headache, slight cough type of thing that are pretty common.

LisaL

(44,962 posts)
7. Not exactly huge news.
Fri Apr 17, 2020, 09:44 PM
Apr 2020

It's obvious the numbers of infected are much higher than official numbers. A lot people still can't get tested, and a lot of people barely have any symptoms so they don't even know they should be tested.
That's why it's hard to stop it from spreading.
Asymptomatic or mostly asymptomatic people can spread it.

 

mr_lebowski

(33,643 posts)
9. I have to wonder to what extent scientists are certain of what point at which
Fri Apr 17, 2020, 09:52 PM
Apr 2020

a person becomes both totally immune, and totally noncontagious, given the presence of antibodies?

I mean, does the presence of antibodies per this test, along with a negative test of the virus itself, mean you are 100% noncontagious, never will be again, and 100% immune, and will never get it in the future (barring significant mutations to the virus)?

Just how much does this test tell us ... I don't know either way but I'm curious.

VOX

(22,976 posts)
11. The virus is novel, so scientists are learning as they go; and much remains unknown.
Fri Apr 17, 2020, 10:02 PM
Apr 2020

-Among those infected but asymptomatic, does the virus smolder and eventually flare up? Unknown. Are these individuals infecting others? Unknown.
-Among those who fell ill but had mild symptoms, are they in the clear? Unknown. Do they have immunity, and, if so, for how long? Unknown. Can survivors spread the virus? Unknown.
-What effects does the virus have on the body’s organs, other than the lungs? Unknown, although early research suggests that COVID-19 may invade the kidneys; there is also a study being done on the effects on the heart, where arrhythmias have been detected. Still, much is unknown.

This is why Trump’s whipping up his base to go thrash about in public is so dangerous— the medical research, and the science just isn’t there yet. I don’t give a damn about them getting infected, but they will spread it to others. How long will it take to catch up? Unknown. When will a vaccine be ready? REALLY unknown.

roamer65

(36,739 posts)
14. This virus has been here since December.
Sat Apr 18, 2020, 01:02 AM
Apr 2020

I’m sure I had it in early January.

I really want to know if I did so I can donate plasma.

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