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caraher

(6,276 posts)
Mon May 4, 2020, 12:10 AM May 2020

COVID-19 Projections Using Machine Learning

This is the first site I've seen that updates projections based on anticipated state "opening" dates, and the results ain't pretty:


State-by-state Reopenings: We update each US state’s reopening timeline according to The New York Times. To date, we are the only model referenced by the CDC that factors in individual state re-openings.

Current Projection for US (Updated Daily - Last Updated: May 3):
Current Total: 66,366 deaths
Projected Total: 163,789 deaths by Aug 4, 2020 (Range: 95-283k)
Currently Infected: 0.6% | Total Infected: 2.9%




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COVID-19 Projections Using Machine Learning (Original Post) caraher May 2020 OP
Interesting site, I book marked it to refer to later KS Toronado May 2020 #1
God I hope that's wrong Bucky May 2020 #2
The big question, with regards to "re-opening"... regnaD kciN May 2020 #3
Right caraher May 2020 #4

Bucky

(53,805 posts)
2. God I hope that's wrong
Mon May 4, 2020, 12:34 AM
May 2020

That's pretty depressing. If we had stutter the quarantine another 6 weeks the mortality count could have been half that.

regnaD kciN

(26,035 posts)
3. The big question, with regards to "re-opening"...
Mon May 4, 2020, 12:36 AM
May 2020

...is how quickly states will be to re-impose restrictions if (when) they see a new spike in cases. I'm guessing it falls pretty much along the blue/red divide -- states with Democratic leadership will be both more cautious and gradual in the phases of reopening and quicker to move back to more-stringent isolation if the numbers start going up, while stats with Republican leadership will not only re-open too hastily (or not even impose restrictions at all), but will be unwilling to take any corrective action when cases begin to spike, with a reaction that can probably best be described as "Pay no attention to the corpses behind the curtain - the Great and Powerful Capitalism has spoken!"

caraher

(6,276 posts)
4. Right
Mon May 4, 2020, 08:59 AM
May 2020

It could be more of a roller-coaster than a steady thing - this model works off current plans, and not potential response to how plans may change in response to future developments.

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