General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsCOVID-19 Projections Using Machine Learning
This is the first site I've seen that updates projections based on anticipated state "opening" dates, and the results ain't pretty:
State-by-state Reopenings: We update each US states reopening timeline according to The New York Times. To date, we are the only model referenced by the CDC that factors in individual state re-openings.
Current Projection for US (Updated Daily - Last Updated: May 3):
Current Total: 66,366 deaths
Projected Total: 163,789 deaths by Aug 4, 2020 (Range: 95-283k)
Currently Infected: 0.6% | Total Infected: 2.9%
KS Toronado
(16,918 posts)Bucky
(53,805 posts)That's pretty depressing. If we had stutter the quarantine another 6 weeks the mortality count could have been half that.
regnaD kciN
(26,035 posts)...is how quickly states will be to re-impose restrictions if (when) they see a new spike in cases. I'm guessing it falls pretty much along the blue/red divide -- states with Democratic leadership will be both more cautious and gradual in the phases of reopening and quicker to move back to more-stringent isolation if the numbers start going up, while stats with Republican leadership will not only re-open too hastily (or not even impose restrictions at all), but will be unwilling to take any corrective action when cases begin to spike, with a reaction that can probably best be described as "Pay no attention to the corpses behind the curtain - the Great and Powerful Capitalism has spoken!"
It could be more of a roller-coaster than a steady thing - this model works off current plans, and not potential response to how plans may change in response to future developments.