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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsMight Be A High CV Death Day Today
Looking at the Worldometer bar chart, we had a couple lower death number days about a week ago.
The next 3 days were between 2,100 & 2,500 per day, followed by just under 2k, or about 8,500 in 4 days.
The last 2 days were about 3,000 combined, with only around 1,200 yesterday.
There doesn't seem to be a reason for the dip aside from the artifact of reporting in 24 hour slots.
30% of people who won't make it, linger an extra 8 hours moves those to the next day.
This is the third time since mid-April where # of deaths fell dramatically and the first 2 were followed by spikes.
I hope I'm jumping to conclusions, but I'm expecting a big number for today, tomorrow or both!
Mariana
(14,847 posts)the numbers of cases and deaths are off on the weekends.
ProfessorGAC
(64,413 posts)You may be right. In looking at the graph again, the last 2 low values followed by a big uptick were on Sundays.
Nice catch!
Ms. Toad
(33,915 posts)They retroactively adjust the deaths to the day they occurred.
ProfessorGAC
(64,413 posts)I don't share that confidence.
Besides, the natural smoothing of daily deaths would happen with or without retroactive adjustments.
Over 6 weeks, 3 low numbers on Sundays with higher Monday or Tuesday numbers, and a very big spike after 2 lower than average days suggests they aren't doing as you suggest.
Ms. Toad
(33,915 posts)I was only addressing the theory that the weekend bumps are the result of workers being off for the weekend, and suggesting a way to check out if that is the cause. Cases are initially reported the day they are reported to the data collection agency, then, over time they are corrected to reflect the actual date of death.I've seen adjustments to daily death totals in the thousands, and adjustments more than a month after the deaths we originally reported.
So to check the theory, go back and look at the last couple of weekends and see if the weekend dips and Monday bumps you noticed are still there.
Mariana
(14,847 posts)Ms. Toad
(33,915 posts)other places, as well.) Once each state identifies the correct date for the death (most typically), they report adjusted numbers to the CDC, which are then picked up by the reporting sites most of us use (e.g worldometers, johns hopkins).
Sometimes, the glut is due to a changed definition of cases. That happened around April 14 - and tons of "new" deaths were reported on the day an old death (previously attributed to something else) was reclassified. Over the next week or two, the reporting bump due to deaths smoothed out as the deaths were tied back to the actual date of death.
I would not be surprised to see that happening with weekend deaths, as well.
Mariana
(14,847 posts)uponit7771
(90,225 posts)OnDoutside
(19,905 posts)Red States.
ProfessorGAC
(64,413 posts)And, I'm not sure there's a good reason for substantial decline, except for NY & CA being beyond the peak and they have such large populations.
Here in IL, we're the sixth most populated state and we haven't peaked yet. Flattened the slope but not on the other side.
Other high population states are in the same place.
So, I don't think we were headed for a big decline in the first place.
Add in your point, and this isn't getting better for a while.
OnDoutside
(19,905 posts)touching a Red state.
Squinch
(50,773 posts)gab13by13
(20,849 posts)marble falls
(56,353 posts)local officials will not say if they're in nursing homes or not.
LeftInTX
(24,541 posts)We had one nursing home with about 77 cases
We also have an outbreak at the county jail. We currently have 235 from the county jail. The numbers really spiked when they finally started testing asymptomatic inmates and staff last week. (The county judge also tells how many have recovered from the jail too)
Of course, we are media market and our local news broadcasts the daily press conferences from the mayor and county judge. We really don't know what's going on in Bandera, Wilson, Frio, Atascosa and Medina Counties.
We get more info from northern suburbs such as Comal, Guadalupe, Hays and Kendall.
They did announce that DeWitt county was going to have a "testing day"...and I was like WTF.
marble falls
(56,353 posts)LeftInTX
(24,541 posts)marble falls
(56,353 posts)LeftInTX
(24,541 posts)Today there were only 5 community transmission cases and 34 jail cases.
Maybe the hot weather is suppressing symptoms and people aren't getting tested?
The jail is testing everyone who is incarcerated.
6:15 p.m. | Mayor Nirenberg announced at total of 39 new cases of COVID-19 in Bexar County, with 34 of those positive cases being reported from Bexar County Adult Detention Center. The new cases pushed the countywide total to 1,652
Cognitive_Resonance
(1,546 posts)doing a fine job delivering factual information and guidance on a regular basis.
Bucky
(53,795 posts)And new covid-19 confirmed cases always spike on Wednesdays
ProfessorGAC
(64,413 posts)And, unexpectedly a lot of Thursdays are high.
marble falls
(56,353 posts)might be higher. I think you're going to be correct.
ProfessorGAC
(64,413 posts)Seems compilers may be taking weekends off here & there. When they get back, the weekend number get aggregated with Mon & Tue numbers.
I still have no good guess as to why the 3 spikes on Thursdays.
Igel
(35,191 posts)Sometimes you learn something from the sub-pattern. Sometimes, not so much.
Notice, though, that pretty consistently the last three weeks when you match up days of the week you see a down trend. If every point on the subpattern is declining, the overall pattern has to be declining. (If there are some declining and some that don't, then you have to average, but if a point-by-point comparison shows decline, it's a slam-dunk, at least for that time period.)
Still best to look at the underbrush of state and urban-area trends.
marble falls
(56,353 posts)Igel
(35,191 posts)I think of the weekly cycle as larger surges that the waves and ripples ride on.
unblock
(51,973 posts)I share the suspicion that this is a reporting timing issue
gratuitous
(82,849 posts)It's been a couple of weeks since dumbass demonstrators first went out to break isolation. This week is going to see an upswing in reported cases, and next week we're going to see more people getting very sick and dying. The major difference is that it won't be in New York City, but all over the country.
I'm iffy with sure and certain predictions.
I confidently predicted Trump would lose in 2016. Haven't finished living that one down.
But the massive explosions of cases and deaths in various states failed to materialize as predicted, so I'm taking predictions of gloom and projections of doom as definite maybes. With the proviso that I won't be upset if they're wrong.
Stallion
(6,473 posts)-
Ms. Toad
(33,915 posts)Here's the data for the last 3 weeks (# of new deaths, and ratio of today's total deaths to prior day's total deaths)
2111 - 1.119326211
2236 - 1.112917887
2024 - 1.091841365
1727 - 1.07177292
1726 - 1.06692776 (Monday: decline in actual numbers and % of prior day's total deaths)
2566 - 1.093258223 (Tuesday: jump in actual numbers and % of prior day total deaths - but the % is nearly identical to Saturday's increase in total deaths)
2631 - 1.087463848
2193 - 1.067039618
2543 -1.072854892
1883 - 1.050283059
1570 -1.039917622
1952 -1.047724994 (Monday increase in actual numbers that appears large, but the % figure suggests otherwise)
2683 - 1.062609386 (Tuesday significant increase in both stats)
2358 - 1.051783204
2340 - 1.048857895
2957 - 1.058864514
1065 - 1.020022184
1157 - 1.02132483
1390 - 1.025084366(Monday relatively small increase in actual numbers consistent with the % figure)
2463 - 1.043360386 (Tuesday significant jump in actual numbers - but not much increase over the death rate the prior week)
2390 - 1.040326663
2200 - 1.035681848
1897 - 1.029707467
1691 - 1.025717458
1154 - 1.017110492
So my bet (having looked at my data) is for new deaths to be between the Saturday/Sunday numbers, with a bump up tomorrow.
But - deaths are far less predictable than new cases (fewer of them so a few people living after the artificial cut-off for one day influences the overall numbers more significantly than that same number would influence the numbers of cases)
LeftInTX
(24,541 posts)We have an outbreak at our county jail. I think we had 35 cases. Last week, they started testing everyone at the jail (2,000 inmates). We now have 235 cases from the jail. Most/majority are asymptomatic.
Maru Kitteh
(28,303 posts)we will see around 3K deaths daily sometime early June.
Ms. Toad
(33,915 posts)We've been steady for a while. I expect infections to start ticking up, but I need to see the uptick - and how fast it is coming to have any sense of where we'll be by June.
But - the reality is that we shut things down when there were very few cases (Ohio started shutting down when there was a single case) - because we knew this thing was extraordinarily contagious. Starting with Ohio's 1 case, we knew it would double to 2, then 4, 8, 16, 32 . . . until we get to where we are today. That only takes a handful of doubling cycles.
Now - we're not starting at 1 case. We're starting with thousands. The rule still holds that we'll be doubling the number of cases if there is enough exposure for the virus to find new victims - and we have dramatically increased (even before opening) the exposure because of idiots protesting, people tired of being cooped up going out, etc.
The only real question is how long it takes to double. And that's what I don't know yet - and won't until we start seeing the new cases from more widespread circulation by idiots now wearing masks and pretending everything is hunky dory.
It wouldn't surprise me. We had close to that a little over a week ago. Two weeks to get more people sick, another week for them to die.
Buckeye_Democrat
(14,846 posts)Then gets accounted later, like you imply.