Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

ProfessorGAC

(64,413 posts)
Mon May 4, 2020, 05:48 AM May 2020

Might Be A High CV Death Day Today

Looking at the Worldometer bar chart, we had a couple lower death number days about a week ago.
The next 3 days were between 2,100 & 2,500 per day, followed by just under 2k, or about 8,500 in 4 days.
The last 2 days were about 3,000 combined, with only around 1,200 yesterday.
There doesn't seem to be a reason for the dip aside from the artifact of reporting in 24 hour slots.
30% of people who won't make it, linger an extra 8 hours moves those to the next day.
This is the third time since mid-April where # of deaths fell dramatically and the first 2 were followed by spikes.
I hope I'm jumping to conclusions, but I'm expecting a big number for today, tomorrow or both!

37 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Might Be A High CV Death Day Today (Original Post) ProfessorGAC May 2020 OP
I think it's likely that some of the people who compile and report Mariana May 2020 #1
Good Call! ProfessorGAC May 2020 #2
If that is the reason, the bumps from prior weekends should have flattened Ms. Toad May 2020 #16
You Seem Positive ProfessorGAC May 2020 #18
Not at all. Ms. Toad May 2020 #19
Who is "they"? nt. Mariana May 2020 #23
Each state reports new deaths and new cases they are aware of to the CDC (and perhaps Ms. Toad May 2020 #24
Thank you. nt. Mariana May 2020 #25
+1, cause the CDC isn't collecting all the data from the states .... Horridness uponit7771 May 2020 #4
Even if it starts to decline over the next couple of weeks, expect it to rise again in 3 weeks, in OnDoutside May 2020 #3
True ProfessorGAC May 2020 #5
That's for sure, the response is so horrifically disjointed, I would also worry for any Blue state OnDoutside May 2020 #33
Florida and Georgia are already ticking up. Squinch May 2020 #6
I think Texas is in trouble too. gab13by13 May 2020 #7
Here in the Hill Country, we've been low. But we went from six to twelve in a week, and ... marble falls May 2020 #11
In Bexar County they tell us LeftInTX May 2020 #27
Wow. I'm shocked. marble falls May 2020 #30
You can watch the May 2 briefing here: LeftInTX May 2020 #31
I really didn't know it was that high. There is no doubt in mind there will be a 2nd wave. marble falls May 2020 #34
Right now the jail has almost all of the new cases LeftInTX May 2020 #36
I follow San Antonio news on the KENS-TV Roku channel. Mayor Nirenberg and Judge Wolff are Cognitive_Resonance May 2020 #32
When you look at that chart, deaths always spike on Tuesdays Bucky May 2020 #8
I'm Seeing Mondays, Too ProfessorGAC May 2020 #9
Watchin the news, I don't see any reason there would be fewer and all sorts of indications it ... marble falls May 2020 #10
People Above Have Posited Some Good Reasons ProfessorGAC May 2020 #12
Patterns within patterns. Igel May 2020 #17
Ripples. marble falls May 2020 #20
Except that the big wave is just a bunch of ripples added. Igel May 2020 #21
Sundays in particular seem low unblock May 2020 #13
This is going to be a brutal week gratuitous May 2020 #14
Perhaps. Igel May 2020 #22
Tuesday is Spike Day-has been for Last 4-5 Weeks Stallion May 2020 #15
Update after being reunited with my data. Ms. Toad May 2020 #26
Even new cases are unpredictable as testing increases LeftInTX May 2020 #29
Curious to know what you think of the adjusted projections and internal WH speculation that Maru Kitteh May 2020 #35
I don't have enough data for specifics. Ms. Toad May 2020 #37
It seems to usually drop on weekends. Buckeye_Democrat May 2020 #28

Mariana

(14,847 posts)
1. I think it's likely that some of the people who compile and report
Mon May 4, 2020, 05:56 AM
May 2020

the numbers of cases and deaths are off on the weekends.

ProfessorGAC

(64,413 posts)
2. Good Call!
Mon May 4, 2020, 06:31 AM
May 2020

You may be right. In looking at the graph again, the last 2 low values followed by a big uptick were on Sundays.
Nice catch!

Ms. Toad

(33,915 posts)
16. If that is the reason, the bumps from prior weekends should have flattened
Mon May 4, 2020, 09:49 AM
May 2020

They retroactively adjust the deaths to the day they occurred.

ProfessorGAC

(64,413 posts)
18. You Seem Positive
Mon May 4, 2020, 09:54 AM
May 2020

I don't share that confidence.
Besides, the natural smoothing of daily deaths would happen with or without retroactive adjustments.
Over 6 weeks, 3 low numbers on Sundays with higher Monday or Tuesday numbers, and a very big spike after 2 lower than average days suggests they aren't doing as you suggest.

Ms. Toad

(33,915 posts)
19. Not at all.
Mon May 4, 2020, 10:11 AM
May 2020

I was only addressing the theory that the weekend bumps are the result of workers being off for the weekend, and suggesting a way to check out if that is the cause. Cases are initially reported the day they are reported to the data collection agency, then, over time they are corrected to reflect the actual date of death.I've seen adjustments to daily death totals in the thousands, and adjustments more than a month after the deaths we originally reported.

So to check the theory, go back and look at the last couple of weekends and see if the weekend dips and Monday bumps you noticed are still there.

Ms. Toad

(33,915 posts)
24. Each state reports new deaths and new cases they are aware of to the CDC (and perhaps
Mon May 4, 2020, 12:39 PM
May 2020

other places, as well.) Once each state identifies the correct date for the death (most typically), they report adjusted numbers to the CDC, which are then picked up by the reporting sites most of us use (e.g worldometers, johns hopkins).

Sometimes, the glut is due to a changed definition of cases. That happened around April 14 - and tons of "new" deaths were reported on the day an old death (previously attributed to something else) was reclassified. Over the next week or two, the reporting bump due to deaths smoothed out as the deaths were tied back to the actual date of death.

I would not be surprised to see that happening with weekend deaths, as well.

OnDoutside

(19,905 posts)
3. Even if it starts to decline over the next couple of weeks, expect it to rise again in 3 weeks, in
Mon May 4, 2020, 06:39 AM
May 2020

Red States.

ProfessorGAC

(64,413 posts)
5. True
Mon May 4, 2020, 06:58 AM
May 2020

And, I'm not sure there's a good reason for substantial decline, except for NY & CA being beyond the peak and they have such large populations.
Here in IL, we're the sixth most populated state and we haven't peaked yet. Flattened the slope but not on the other side.
Other high population states are in the same place.
So, I don't think we were headed for a big decline in the first place.
Add in your point, and this isn't getting better for a while.

OnDoutside

(19,905 posts)
33. That's for sure, the response is so horrifically disjointed, I would also worry for any Blue state
Mon May 4, 2020, 06:29 PM
May 2020

touching a Red state.

marble falls

(56,353 posts)
11. Here in the Hill Country, we've been low. But we went from six to twelve in a week, and ...
Mon May 4, 2020, 07:34 AM
May 2020

local officials will not say if they're in nursing homes or not.

LeftInTX

(24,541 posts)
27. In Bexar County they tell us
Mon May 4, 2020, 01:07 PM
May 2020

We had one nursing home with about 77 cases

We also have an outbreak at the county jail. We currently have 235 from the county jail. The numbers really spiked when they finally started testing asymptomatic inmates and staff last week. (The county judge also tells how many have recovered from the jail too)

Of course, we are media market and our local news broadcasts the daily press conferences from the mayor and county judge. We really don't know what's going on in Bandera, Wilson, Frio, Atascosa and Medina Counties.

We get more info from northern suburbs such as Comal, Guadalupe, Hays and Kendall.

They did announce that DeWitt county was going to have a "testing day"...and I was like WTF.

LeftInTX

(24,541 posts)
36. Right now the jail has almost all of the new cases
Tue May 5, 2020, 12:30 AM
May 2020

Today there were only 5 community transmission cases and 34 jail cases.

Maybe the hot weather is suppressing symptoms and people aren't getting tested?

The jail is testing everyone who is incarcerated.

May 4

6:15 p.m. | Mayor Nirenberg announced at total of 39 new cases of COVID-19 in Bexar County, with 34 of those positive cases being reported from Bexar County Adult Detention Center. The new cases pushed the countywide total to 1,652

Cognitive_Resonance

(1,546 posts)
32. I follow San Antonio news on the KENS-TV Roku channel. Mayor Nirenberg and Judge Wolff are
Mon May 4, 2020, 01:59 PM
May 2020

doing a fine job delivering factual information and guidance on a regular basis.

Bucky

(53,795 posts)
8. When you look at that chart, deaths always spike on Tuesdays
Mon May 4, 2020, 07:13 AM
May 2020

And new covid-19 confirmed cases always spike on Wednesdays

marble falls

(56,353 posts)
10. Watchin the news, I don't see any reason there would be fewer and all sorts of indications it ...
Mon May 4, 2020, 07:31 AM
May 2020

might be higher. I think you're going to be correct.

ProfessorGAC

(64,413 posts)
12. People Above Have Posited Some Good Reasons
Mon May 4, 2020, 07:40 AM
May 2020

Seems compilers may be taking weekends off here & there. When they get back, the weekend number get aggregated with Mon & Tue numbers.
I still have no good guess as to why the 3 spikes on Thursdays.

Igel

(35,191 posts)
17. Patterns within patterns.
Mon May 4, 2020, 09:54 AM
May 2020

Sometimes you learn something from the sub-pattern. Sometimes, not so much.

Notice, though, that pretty consistently the last three weeks when you match up days of the week you see a down trend. If every point on the subpattern is declining, the overall pattern has to be declining. (If there are some declining and some that don't, then you have to average, but if a point-by-point comparison shows decline, it's a slam-dunk, at least for that time period.)

Still best to look at the underbrush of state and urban-area trends.

Igel

(35,191 posts)
21. Except that the big wave is just a bunch of ripples added.
Mon May 4, 2020, 11:11 AM
May 2020

I think of the weekly cycle as larger surges that the waves and ripples ride on.

gratuitous

(82,849 posts)
14. This is going to be a brutal week
Mon May 4, 2020, 09:33 AM
May 2020

It's been a couple of weeks since dumbass demonstrators first went out to break isolation. This week is going to see an upswing in reported cases, and next week we're going to see more people getting very sick and dying. The major difference is that it won't be in New York City, but all over the country.

Igel

(35,191 posts)
22. Perhaps.
Mon May 4, 2020, 11:14 AM
May 2020

I'm iffy with sure and certain predictions.

I confidently predicted Trump would lose in 2016. Haven't finished living that one down.

But the massive explosions of cases and deaths in various states failed to materialize as predicted, so I'm taking predictions of gloom and projections of doom as definite maybes. With the proviso that I won't be upset if they're wrong.

Ms. Toad

(33,915 posts)
26. Update after being reunited with my data.
Mon May 4, 2020, 01:06 PM
May 2020

Here's the data for the last 3 weeks (# of new deaths, and ratio of today's total deaths to prior day's total deaths)

2111 - 1.119326211
2236 - 1.112917887
2024 - 1.091841365
1727 - 1.07177292

1726 - 1.06692776 (Monday: decline in actual numbers and % of prior day's total deaths)
2566 - 1.093258223 (Tuesday: jump in actual numbers and % of prior day total deaths - but the % is nearly identical to Saturday's increase in total deaths)
2631 - 1.087463848
2193 - 1.067039618
2543 -1.072854892
1883 - 1.050283059
1570 -1.039917622

1952 -1.047724994 (Monday increase in actual numbers that appears large, but the % figure suggests otherwise)
2683 - 1.062609386 (Tuesday significant increase in both stats)
2358 - 1.051783204
2340 - 1.048857895
2957 - 1.058864514
1065 - 1.020022184
1157 - 1.02132483

1390 - 1.025084366(Monday relatively small increase in actual numbers consistent with the % figure)
2463 - 1.043360386 (Tuesday significant jump in actual numbers - but not much increase over the death rate the prior week)
2390 - 1.040326663
2200 - 1.035681848
1897 - 1.029707467
1691 - 1.025717458
1154 - 1.017110492


So my bet (having looked at my data) is for new deaths to be between the Saturday/Sunday numbers, with a bump up tomorrow.

But - deaths are far less predictable than new cases (fewer of them so a few people living after the artificial cut-off for one day influences the overall numbers more significantly than that same number would influence the numbers of cases)

LeftInTX

(24,541 posts)
29. Even new cases are unpredictable as testing increases
Mon May 4, 2020, 01:15 PM
May 2020

We have an outbreak at our county jail. I think we had 35 cases. Last week, they started testing everyone at the jail (2,000 inmates). We now have 235 cases from the jail. Most/majority are asymptomatic.

Maru Kitteh

(28,303 posts)
35. Curious to know what you think of the adjusted projections and internal WH speculation that
Tue May 5, 2020, 12:25 AM
May 2020

we will see around 3K deaths daily sometime early June.

Ms. Toad

(33,915 posts)
37. I don't have enough data for specifics.
Tue May 5, 2020, 02:59 AM
May 2020

We've been steady for a while. I expect infections to start ticking up, but I need to see the uptick - and how fast it is coming to have any sense of where we'll be by June.

But - the reality is that we shut things down when there were very few cases (Ohio started shutting down when there was a single case) - because we knew this thing was extraordinarily contagious. Starting with Ohio's 1 case, we knew it would double to 2, then 4, 8, 16, 32 . . . until we get to where we are today. That only takes a handful of doubling cycles.

Now - we're not starting at 1 case. We're starting with thousands. The rule still holds that we'll be doubling the number of cases if there is enough exposure for the virus to find new victims - and we have dramatically increased (even before opening) the exposure because of idiots protesting, people tired of being cooped up going out, etc.

The only real question is how long it takes to double. And that's what I don't know yet - and won't until we start seeing the new cases from more widespread circulation by idiots now wearing masks and pretending everything is hunky dory.

It wouldn't surprise me. We had close to that a little over a week ago. Two weeks to get more people sick, another week for them to die.

Latest Discussions»General Discussion»Might Be A High CV Death ...