Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

babylonsister

(170,963 posts)
Wed May 6, 2020, 07:31 AM May 2020

Top Trump Adviser's Model Predicts Deaths At Zero By May 15

Uh huh.


Top Trump Adviser’s Model Predicts Deaths At Zero By May 15
Emily Singer
May 06 | 2020


A Trump administration economic adviser with no experience in epidemiology created a coronavirus model that predicted deaths from the virus dropping to near zero by May 15, the Washington Post reported. The model offers an extremely optimistic prediction that no others have shown.

The adviser who created the model, Kevin Hassett, has denied it plays a role in decisions related to the virus. "I have never, ever said that that's my projection of what the death count was going to be, and no administration policy has been influenced by my projections," he told the Post.

However, according to a Post report, Trump and his aides used that model to justify plans to start reopening the economy. White House officials, like Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, were reported to have relied on it because it "affirmed their own skepticism about the severity of the virus and bolstered their case to shift the focus to the economy, which they firmly believed would determine whether Trump wins a second term," the Post reported.

With coronavirus deaths now at a staggering 68,237, and with hundreds more dying from COVID-19 each day, there is no way that deaths will drop to zero in just 10 days.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation — which produces another model the White House has been using — revised its death count higher on Monday, following some states' decisions to start reopening their economies. That model now predicts 1,551 deaths on May 15, the day Hassett's model said deaths would stop.

This is not the first time Trump advisers have made bad predictions about the COVID-19 pandemic.

more...

https://www.nationalmemo.com/top-trump-advisers-model-predicts-deaths-at-zero-by-may-15

11 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies

JHB

(37,132 posts)
1. "Even four days into the forecast, it's off by 70%"
Wed May 6, 2020, 07:35 AM
May 2020



Kellum Dander @kellumdander

Here's the most recent #IHME #COVID__19 forecast that's being used to guide public policy decisions, overlaid on top of the actual daily death rate. Even four days into the forecast, it's off by 70%. Why isn't the media calling bullshit? Because this is bullshit.

LisaL

(44,962 posts)
4. You can make your model pretty much do anything you want it to do.
Wed May 6, 2020, 07:40 AM
May 2020

Unfortunately you can't make an actual deaths to do that.

ProfessorGAC

(64,425 posts)
7. No Doubt In My Mind
Wed May 6, 2020, 07:58 AM
May 2020

First he admits to putting a cubic function in a quadratic fit. (Like he understand what any of that means.)
I say he arbitrarily weight the factors to force the line to zero.
You use a four element equation for a fit, it doesn't take much negative weight in to radically change the shape of the curve.
I'm positive this is what he did.

agingdem

(7,759 posts)
6. if Trump can
Wed May 6, 2020, 07:55 AM
May 2020

gag the media, the scientists , the doctors...if there's a facts blackout and he gaslights his sycophants then he gets his zero deaths..."who you gonna believe, me or your lying eyes?"

duforsure

(11,882 posts)
10. That's why. He was hired
Wed May 6, 2020, 08:26 AM
May 2020

Like with Bill Barr, he pander to trump he would accept and help him promote his delusions no matter how corrupt they were. Experience was ignored, but his willingness to be corrupt and helping promote trump was his only qualifications, and as with others.

Latest Discussions»General Discussion»Top Trump Adviser's Model...