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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsTop Trump Adviser's Model Predicts Deaths At Zero By May 15
Uh huh.
Top Trump Advisers Model Predicts Deaths At Zero By May 15
Emily Singer
May 06 | 2020
A Trump administration economic adviser with no experience in epidemiology created a coronavirus model that predicted deaths from the virus dropping to near zero by May 15, the Washington Post reported. The model offers an extremely optimistic prediction that no others have shown.
The adviser who created the model, Kevin Hassett, has denied it plays a role in decisions related to the virus. "I have never, ever said that that's my projection of what the death count was going to be, and no administration policy has been influenced by my projections," he told the Post.
However, according to a Post report, Trump and his aides used that model to justify plans to start reopening the economy. White House officials, like Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, were reported to have relied on it because it "affirmed their own skepticism about the severity of the virus and bolstered their case to shift the focus to the economy, which they firmly believed would determine whether Trump wins a second term," the Post reported.
With coronavirus deaths now at a staggering 68,237, and with hundreds more dying from COVID-19 each day, there is no way that deaths will drop to zero in just 10 days.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation which produces another model the White House has been using revised its death count higher on Monday, following some states' decisions to start reopening their economies. That model now predicts 1,551 deaths on May 15, the day Hassett's model said deaths would stop.
This is not the first time Trump advisers have made bad predictions about the COVID-19 pandemic.
more...
https://www.nationalmemo.com/top-trump-advisers-model-predicts-deaths-at-zero-by-may-15
JHB
(37,132 posts)Link to tweet
Here's the most recent #IHME #COVID__19 forecast that's being used to guide public policy decisions, overlaid on top of the actual daily death rate. Even four days into the forecast, it's off by 70%. Why isn't the media calling bullshit? Because this is bullshit.
empedocles
(15,751 posts)C_U_L8R
(44,897 posts)It's getting surreal over there in Trumpland.
Vinca
(50,170 posts)LisaL
(44,962 posts)Unfortunately you can't make an actual deaths to do that.
ProfessorGAC
(64,425 posts)First he admits to putting a cubic function in a quadratic fit. (Like he understand what any of that means.)
I say he arbitrarily weight the factors to force the line to zero.
You use a four element equation for a fit, it doesn't take much negative weight in to radically change the shape of the curve.
I'm positive this is what he did.
Brother Mythos
(1,442 posts)agingdem
(7,759 posts)gag the media, the scientists , the doctors...if there's a facts blackout and he gaslights his sycophants then he gets his zero deaths..."who you gonna believe, me or your lying eyes?"
LuckyCharms
(17,287 posts)woodsprite
(11,854 posts)duforsure
(11,882 posts)Like with Bill Barr, he pander to trump he would accept and help him promote his delusions no matter how corrupt they were. Experience was ignored, but his willingness to be corrupt and helping promote trump was his only qualifications, and as with others.