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Tue May 12, 2020, 04:38 PM

Breaking on CNN -projections from the model touted by the WH

have increased to 147,000 deaths by August 4th.
I still think that's low given the current number of victims from this disaster

Damn!

20 replies, 2312 views

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Arrow 20 replies Author Time Post
Reply Breaking on CNN -projections from the model touted by the WH (Original post)
malaise May 2020 OP
Stallion May 2020 #1
LineReply .
applegrove May 2020 #2
uponit7771 May 2020 #3
ananda May 2020 #4
malaise May 2020 #5
brewens May 2020 #13
ananda May 2020 #20
abqtommy May 2020 #6
Quixote1818 May 2020 #7
mopinko May 2020 #8
Blue_true May 2020 #17
mopinko May 2020 #19
ThoughtCriminal May 2020 #9
Iliyah May 2020 #10
Lucinda May 2020 #11
mnmoderatedem May 2020 #12
Loki Liesmith May 2020 #14
LineNew Reply :
onecaliberal May 2020 #15
brush May 2020 #16
ProfessorGAC May 2020 #18

Response to malaise (Original post)

Tue May 12, 2020, 04:39 PM

1. A+

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Tue May 12, 2020, 04:39 PM

2. .

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Tue May 12, 2020, 04:40 PM

3. K&R, ... and that's with adequate testing in place TODAY

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Tue May 12, 2020, 04:41 PM

4. A LOT of deaths are not being reported.

Fact.

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Response to ananda (Reply #4)

Tue May 12, 2020, 04:43 PM

5. Fauci said so today

I think the Con slipped yesterday and dropped to unexpected numbers - 90,000 and 100,000. Then he corrected himself and said 80,000.
If it's 100,000 now it will be closer to 300,000 by August.
No Democratic President would still be in office after something like this.

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Response to malaise (Reply #5)

Tue May 12, 2020, 05:19 PM

13. Trump didn't like that recent model he claimed didn't factor in mitigation. He was lying or

didn't know what he was talking about. It did factor in mitigation. The only thing is, we won't see the mitigation that model included because Trump is undermining it.

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Response to brewens (Reply #13)

Wed May 13, 2020, 09:49 AM

20. That's what he does.

Trump literally cannot face the truth about himself
or what he's doing to the country.

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Tue May 12, 2020, 04:49 PM

6. One death is too many, a million tears are not enough...

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Tue May 12, 2020, 04:51 PM

7. Vietnam X 2 in about 1/20th the amount of time. nt

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Tue May 12, 2020, 04:55 PM

8. my wager remain 1m, and likely by the 4th of july.

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Response to mopinko (Reply #8)

Tue May 12, 2020, 07:13 PM

17. That seems way high for that timeframe.

If we even come close to 1m in that time, we will look like fools to the rest of the world.

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Response to Blue_true (Reply #17)

Tue May 12, 2020, 07:32 PM

19. happy to take your wager.

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Tue May 12, 2020, 04:56 PM

9. A model that has consistently underestimated deaths

Although it has been re-forecasting higher estimates since some states started to re-open, the IHME projections have consistently under-estimated the number of deaths in the United States. I suspect that is the main reason that the WH keeps using it.

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Tue May 12, 2020, 04:57 PM

10. Hell, the rate the deaths are going . ..

it will be 90,000 by this Sunday. A lot of the states that are opening have not even reached it's peak. Hopefully NYS, CA, MI, Ill, NJ, WA and other states have or will soon reached their plateau.

Opening too soon can cause another major shut down, which in turn would be the worst scenario economically wise.

Fellow Americans dying from COVID-19 is

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Tue May 12, 2020, 04:57 PM

11. ...

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Tue May 12, 2020, 05:00 PM

12. time for him to get the Sharpie out

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Tue May 12, 2020, 05:23 PM

14. The model was an interesting failed idea

Naive curve fits can be a three edged sword.

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Tue May 12, 2020, 05:24 PM

15. :

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Tue May 12, 2020, 06:10 PM

16. And somehow the idiotically inept WH thinks 147,000 deaths by then...

makes them look good. They live in their own up-side-down. bizzarro world, which going by that model still leaves three months to election day, and with a very conservative estimate of 30k deaths a month, would be some 240,000 deaths by election day on Nov. 3.

Hallelujah!

Are they all snorting Adderol in the trump WH?

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Tue May 12, 2020, 07:19 PM

18. The Upper End Of The Projection Is 227,000

By August 4.
The low end of the model is a bit under 114,000.

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