Sun May 17, 2020, 12:19 PM

jeffreyi (1,294 posts)

Scenarios for the next 9 months

This was an item in today's Recomendo, a free newsletter from Kevin Kelly and associates, whose lineage includes the Whole Earth Catalog and Cool Tools.

The link goes to a slide show of scenarios for the next several months, which are basically "thought through" analyses of some basic assumptions that might evolve from the present day. Kind of a long read, but worth it, for me, anyway.
Quoting from the newsletter:

"Scenarios for the next 9 months
High uncertainty ahead, for sure. There is no consensus on what will happen in the next 9 months. Every scientist, economist, sociologist, and futurist disagree on what might happen, but we still need to make plans as individuals and organizations. A very helpful tool in a reign of high uncertainty is to use scenario planning. The best set of near-term scenarios I’ve seen is this one, Scenarios for the Covid-19 Future, available as 45 slides, which include instructions on how to use scenarios. You can’t predict what will happen, but you can rehearse for four different possibilities. — KK"

Newsletter link:
https://www.getrevue.co/profile/Recomendo/issues/deep-youtube-future-self-meditation-vanishing-asia-247572?utm_campaign=Issue&utm_content=view_in_browser&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Recomendo

Slide show link:
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6663482861041012737/?utm_campaign=Recomendo&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Revue%20newsletter

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15 replies	Author	Time	Post
Scenarios for the next 9 months (Original post)	jeffreyi	May 2020	OP
wow.... big stuff	FirstLight	May 2020	#1
It's not well thought out.	Drunken Irishman	May 2020	#3
ha! I guess if I had read more Id a seen that	FirstLight	May 2020	#12
Kind of a trash prediction.	Drunken Irishman	May 2020	#2
I am not dying	I_UndergroundPanther	May 2020	#4
Glorifies the idea of "opening" the economy regardless of the death toll. Describes that	Squinch	May 2020	#5
Spoke to it above. Felt like that was the only intention of these scenarios.	Drunken Irishman	May 2020	#6
Interesting, but as I see it, like us all, the creators have built their own biases into their	KPN	May 2020	#7
Point of discussion.	cachukis	May 2020	#8
I am sick to death of people like you, who REALLY have nothing to lose, ignorantly and blithely	Squinch	May 2020	#9
Wow. Didn't mean to offend.	cachukis	May 2020	#10
I normally take 2 to 3 international vacations per year. Quite obviously, that's on hold for now.	Dial H For Hero	May 2020	#11
Great modeling format, but the analysis isn't exactly objective or nuanced.	JudyM	May 2020	#13
Understood.	jeffreyi	May 2020	#14
Yes, a good path to a systematic review.	JudyM	May 2020	#15

Response to jeffreyi (Original post)

Sun May 17, 2020, 12:30 PM

FirstLight (12,076 posts)

1. wow.... big stuff

I can't even, only got through the first 1/4 but it's definitely well thought out. And I see the first and worst scenario as the most likely...

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Response to FirstLight (Reply #1)

Sun May 17, 2020, 12:39 PM

Drunken Irishman (34,027 posts)

3. It's not well thought out.

The next slide speaks to the Resilient America being one where we so heroically determine a lot of people are going to have to die to save the economy and that we defy any order to stay at home, proudly returning to public life with a sense of triumph that we didn't let the fear of death stop us from saving the economy.

It's also already outdated, as the last two scenarios are built out of the idea we lose fewer than 100,000 people, which is likely impossible at this point.

This is at least two weeks old, btw.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #3)

Sun May 17, 2020, 06:06 PM

FirstLight (12,076 posts)

12. ha! I guess if I had read more Id a seen that

and yea, none of the "good" scenarios are even close to reality

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Response to jeffreyi (Original post)

Sun May 17, 2020, 12:34 PM

Drunken Irishman (34,027 posts)

2. Kind of a trash prediction.

First, two predictions are already outdated - the We Win & Fractured. Both start with the presumption we see fewer than 100,000 deaths. This was posted two weeks ago. In that span, we're now just 10,000 deaths from breaking 100,000.

Secondly, the Resilient America one is in insulting. As if the only way we can successfully come out of this united is if we concede the new normal is that a lot of fucking people are going to die but that's just something we're going to have to accept to save the economy.

Yeah, no thanks.

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Response to jeffreyi (Original post)

Sun May 17, 2020, 12:41 PM

I_UndergroundPanther (4,953 posts)

4. I am not dying

For rich pigs.

I have risk factors and I am not dying for the Dow.

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Response to jeffreyi (Original post)

Sun May 17, 2020, 12:46 PM

Squinch (35,624 posts)

5. Glorifies the idea of "opening" the economy regardless of the death toll. Describes that

as the heroic path.

That's as far as I got. Because, fuck 'em.

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Response to Squinch (Reply #5)

Sun May 17, 2020, 12:50 PM

Drunken Irishman (34,027 posts)

6. Spoke to it above. Felt like that was the only intention of these scenarios.

I read on just to see what else they thought out and the We Win option is just so unrealistic that it basically makes the Resilient American option the lone "successful" option listed. I've got to think that isn't a coincidence.

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Response to jeffreyi (Original post)

Sun May 17, 2020, 12:56 PM

KPN (11,822 posts)

7. Interesting, but as I see it, like us all, the creators have built their own biases into their

construct/scenarios. For example, I frankly can't see big pharma coming out of this being viewed as "the hero" under any scenario. There is also a basic problem in that we are already close enough to the 100,000 deaths threshold that two of the scenarios don't even apply -- at least with that number as the marker.

I would say that the only truly accurate thing about the presentation may be the intro where they say that there is uncertainty ahead. The rest is a crap shoot with anything bewing possible.

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Response to jeffreyi (Original post)

Sun May 17, 2020, 01:58 PM

cachukis (540 posts)

8. Point of discussion.

Notwithstanding an economy bias, the format presents a chance to examine what's next. Throw the self serving versus the society serving into the mix and you get an uneven chart. The authors seem to want to give investors some guidance. Most people are not risk takers. I choose safety unless the predicament warrants otherwise. We are not on the 104th floor of the WTC with the choice of burning to death or a splat, yet, for most of us. Just the same, as an at risk elder who was hoping to spend my retirement money on seeing the world I've missed, I want to look beyond my walks and Instacart drives. Still don't see an escape without drugs or vaccine. There will be those sacrificed, as is always the case. Machiavelli thought this through. The question as I see it, is whether we will use this event to transform or transact. We have the errors of our ways on full display. Will we address them or succumb to those who want to use them to their advantage?

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Response to cachukis (Reply #8)

Sun May 17, 2020, 03:13 PM

Squinch (35,624 posts)

9. I am sick to death of people like you, who REALLY have nothing to lose, ignorantly and blithely

spewing phrases like, "There will be those sacrificed, as is always the case."

Your biggest problem is that you can't travel in your retirement.

I am a senior with a co-morbid condition and I am still working. So when we reopen, yes I AM on the 104th floor of the WTC. If I get it, my odds are bad, and when I return to work, my job is such that there is little I can do to avoid getting it.

I'm one of "those" who will likely "be sacrificed."

So fuck your callous "point of discussion" about the Russian roulette game that involves MY head.

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Response to Squinch (Reply #9)

Sun May 17, 2020, 05:24 PM

cachukis (540 posts)

10. Wow. Didn't mean to offend.

As I said, I am at risk as well. I get it and I'm dead. I was responding to the analysis of what's next. I'm trying to figure out how to live the rest of my life. My plans are put on hold, like everyone else. My casualties remark was how I feel I'm being considered by the controllers. I was being sardonic, I thought. Hence, I'm trying to figure out, with the evidence and guidance available, how to live what's left of my time. I checked out this appraisal of our impending future and found it a plan for business or personal economics. I'm not going to apologize for planning for retirement. I'm not going to get anybody to accept blame for this mess. It's a sad state when intended help doesn't get into the hands of the needy. My wife gets angry with me on my condition for delivering to the poorer neighborhoods. Didn't mean to be callous.

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Response to cachukis (Reply #8)

Sun May 17, 2020, 05:31 PM

Dial H For Hero (591 posts)

11. I normally take 2 to 3 international vacations per year. Quite obviously, that's on hold for now.

I'm hoping things will start opening up by the end of the year at the latest. I've already had to cancel a tour of Japan and a round the world trip.

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Response to jeffreyi (Original post)

Tue May 19, 2020, 10:27 AM

JudyM (20,131 posts)

13. Great modeling format, but the analysis isn't exactly objective or nuanced.

Thanks for posting it, though.

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Response to JudyM (Reply #13)

Tue May 19, 2020, 11:52 AM

jeffreyi (1,294 posts)

14. Understood.

I like the approach, though. We are empowered to do our own scenarios, after all. Helps me to sort through all the noise.

Scenarios for the next 9 months

1. wow.... big stuff

3. It's not well thought out.

12. ha! I guess if I had read more Id a seen that

2. Kind of a trash prediction.

4. I am not dying

5. Glorifies the idea of "opening" the economy regardless of the death toll. Describes that

6. Spoke to it above. Felt like that was the only intention of these scenarios.

7. Interesting, but as I see it, like us all, the creators have built their own biases into their

8. Point of discussion.

9. I am sick to death of people like you, who REALLY have nothing to lose, ignorantly and blithely

10. Wow. Didn't mean to offend.

11. I normally take 2 to 3 international vacations per year. Quite obviously, that's on hold for now.

13. Great modeling format, but the analysis isn't exactly objective or nuanced.

14. Understood.

15. Yes, a good path to a systematic review.