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judeling

(1,086 posts)
Tue May 19, 2020, 12:07 AM May 2020

A bit of Tempering is due on the Moderna Vaccine

First the announcement was a glimmer of good news but there are some things you should know.

But
This initial study was to have 45 participants and 8 have been reported. This is still positive but needs to be tempered as far a time scale. It is positive in that there seems to be a way to get the body to generate the antibodies in advance of contacting the disease, at least in some people.

However
This is all from the company and the actual study will not be published for a couple of weeks at least.
In the meantime:
The new head of Trump's vaccine task force who was a member of Morderna's Board and hinted at the results has just announce he will be selling his stock.
The company hours after the announcement will now be offering $1.25B in new stock.

Take that as you will.

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Cicada

(4,533 posts)
1. The stock has risen 50 or 60%, what does that imply?
Tue May 19, 2020, 12:29 AM
May 2020

If you owned a drug certain to vaccinate against covid19 what would it be worth? If the increased stock value equals the value of such a vaccine then the market is assuming the drug is 100% certain to work. If the stock increase is only half the value of such a vaccine then the market thinks the new vaccine is 50% likely to work.

I would like to know the odds that this vaccine will cure covid.

I guess another angle is to look at how much the stock market rose.It roseb800 points, only a small share of the stock decline since the virus arrived. If this is a certain cure how much would the market rise? I would think several thousand points? Implying the drug is maybe 20% likely to work?

Jarqui

(10,110 posts)
2. I'm uneasy
Tue May 19, 2020, 01:39 AM
May 2020

I worry stuff like this is coming out to keep the market afloat

These people skipped the animal studies.
This is very, very preliminary. - 8 people were studied and determined

They were very quick to let their investors know
(like that was a pretty important thing for them)
https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-positive-interim-phase-1-data-its-mrna-vaccine

Consistent with the binding antibody data, mRNA-1273 vaccination elicited neutralizing antibodies in all eight of these participants, as measured by plaque reduction neutralization (PRNT) assays against live SARS-CoV-2. The levels of neutralizing antibodies at day 43 were at or above levels generally seen in convalescent sera.


Whether that works to stop the virus or save lives remains to be seen - as do things like side effects, etc.

I'm glad they're working on something and appear to be making progress.
WHO has about 2,500 reports and clinical trials underway so they're likely to figure something that will help.

But this announcement seems calculated and premature.

PoindexterOglethorpe

(25,746 posts)
3. 45 participants?
Tue May 19, 2020, 01:56 AM
May 2020

Is that even remotely a decent number to extrapolate from?

Oh, and keep in mind that most of the testing that's being done have incredibly high false positives and false negatives. To the point where the numbers are essentially meaninglyness.

So for all of you who have been tested, whatever you've been told, have you asked the false negatives/false positives?

I am fortunate in that I'm already retired, don't need to consider going to work, have a reasonable income that I can live on. So I can stay at home much of the time, wear a mask when I go out in public, and hunker down. I do understand that I'm in an incredibly fortunate position. Somewhat in my defense, when I got the stimulus money, I promptly gave half to a local homeless shelter, and the other half to a local food bank. If more such money comes my way I will continue to disburse it thusly.

I am not rich, but I am getting by. I am incredibly fortunate in that I don't need the stimulus money to get by or pay for my necessities. I have done volunteer work at the local homeless shelter in the past, so I'm pretty aware of what's needed there.

In the past I have been relatively poor. When I was in high school I had a Saturday baby sitting job that I got through my high school. It paid three dollars a week. Which would be about $25.00 today. Most days, when the mom I was working for was driving me home, I'd ask to stop at the local grocery store so I could buy food. There were five of us kids at home. My mom was a nurse, and back then (the early 1960s) nurses earned crap. She'd moved us across country to escape an abusive, alcoholic father/husband, and I'm in awe of what she did. Years later when I had two small sons and an intact marriage to a good man, I finally had a sense of how much courage it must have taken her to leave Dad, no matter how bad things were.

I guess my point is that perspective is everything. I've been extremely poor and survived. I'm currently doing okay. I hope everyone who reads this is doing okay, but if you are not, please try to take hope from what I posted above. Times can be extremely tough, as well I know, but hang in there. It will get better.

Squinch

(50,773 posts)
4. Tempering, nothing. I expect this to be a full blown scam. The "vaccine czar" that
Tue May 19, 2020, 06:57 AM
May 2020

Donny Bodybags chose is a former director of the company developing this vaccine. He probably owns a boatload of stock. And Donny Bodybags probably owns a boatload of stock too.
https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-coronavirus-moderna-vaccine-trump-slaoui-moncef-elizabeth-warren-20200518-aua4tkcy4vexlcl4fgppqhyfeu-story.html

Just like the hydrochloroquinine. If it turns out that Donny Bodybags IS taking this drug, I'll eat my hat. But for anyone wondering why he's using his bully pulpit to sell snake oil, here's why:

The top manufacturer of hydroxychloroquine is Novartis. Back in early 2017, soon after the inauguration, Novartis agreed to pay Michael Cohen, Trump's former attorney-slash-fixer, $100,000 per month for lobbying access to the new president. The cash payouts were sent to Cohen's shell company, Essential Consultants, which was also a reputed slush fund for Trump. You might recall that the president used Essential Consultants as an intermediary for alleged hush-money payments to adult film star Stormy Daniels. Indeed, some of those checks were signed by Trump while in the White House.
https://www.salon.com/2020/04/07/dr-trumps-medicine-show-why-is-he-pushing-an-unproven-drug-follow-the-money/

hlthe2b

(101,702 posts)
5. It is incredibly limited early data that has been blown up out of proportion...
Tue May 19, 2020, 09:19 AM
May 2020

Americans need realism and yes, tempered expectations.


Moderna is producing a m-RNA virus, a new technique that has never been used in a licensed vaccine previously. As such it has both major advantages and quite a few potential risks and/or disadvantages.

Excellent article that discusses, including the risk of antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE). The latter could be a devastating issue and was seen with natural occurrence in SARS and MERS-COV.

https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/comment/modernas-phase-i-covid-19-mrna-vaccine-has-manufacturing-edge-but-many-obstacles-to-confirm-protection-lay-ahead/

Johnny2X2X

(18,732 posts)
6. This stinks to high heaven
Tue May 19, 2020, 09:24 AM
May 2020

Trump hires a board member a few days ago, then yesterday they announce this "break through", then that board member sells his stock at a huge profit. This looks like bold faced stock manipulation, given the administration's track record I would be shocked if Moderna's vaccine is first to market, or even gets to market at all.

If this were happening under any other President, Congress would be investigating as this sounds crooked as heck.

Hugin

(32,773 posts)
7. Aw, it's a scam. Oh, well... We were only promised something that wasn't safe or effective.
Tue May 19, 2020, 09:27 AM
May 2020

Mighty wide boundaries there... Could run the gambit between saline and/or bleach.

As per, the HHS Secretary only Sunday.

All hail the High Dow!

uponit7771

(90,225 posts)
8. WOW !!! I didn't know this, I've been watching CNBC and they're not mentioning the inside contacts
Tue May 19, 2020, 09:30 AM
May 2020

... the head of Moderna has.

This is some bullshit

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