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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsLOL:Trump brags about getting Republicans elected. Research suggests his endorsements cost 15 seats.
By Philip Bump
May 27, 2020
Theres a utility to President Trumps frequent election-year claims that he can get Republicans elected to office. If Republican legislators believe that he can make or break their political futures, theyll be more likely to stand with Trump in times of turbulence and support his policy initiatives. Its clearly the case that concern about how Trumps political base would view the situation prompted nearly every Republican legislator to oppose the presidents impeachment. Trump wields his endorsement as a stick while speaking quite loudly.
Its certainly true that Trumps endorsement is valuable in Republican primaries, as weve reported. His popularity with Republican voters and willingness to bash those who cross him has made him something of a kingmaker within his party. In the 2018 midterms, though, his track record on general election matchups was spottier. By our tally, his endorsed candidates won only about half the time.
New research published in Legislative Studies Quarterly offers an even grimmer assessment of Trumps effectiveness that year. Far from delivering seats for his party, the analysis by Andrew O. Ballard and Michael Heseltine of American University and Hans J.G. Hassell of Florida State University indicates that Trump actually cost his party seats, 11 in the House and four in the Senate.
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Trumps endorsements may have done little to elicit engagement from voters on the Republican side, all the while creating a rallying effect around opposing candidates and increasing engagement among Democratic voters, they conclude. The story then from these findings is that presidential endorsements in 2018 indicated presidential backlash rather than presidential coattails.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/05/27/trump-brags-about-getting-republicans-elected-research-suggests-his-endorsements-cost-15-seats
CaptYossarian
(6,448 posts)Um, Senators? Helloooo?
Back to you, Lester.