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kentuck

(110,950 posts)
Fri Jun 5, 2020, 02:01 PM Jun 2020

This is not a typical recession.

People left their jobs because of the pandemic. The economy was doing very good, thanks to what Obama left Trump. Most of the jobs were not "lost", they were postponed because of a national disaster. (coronavirus)

There is no reason to expect the jobs to not return? But, 13% is nothing to brag about. When it gets down to 4-5%, then we can say we have recovered. Claiming victory now is like a marathon runner bragging about his race before it even starts.

We should expect the job rate to go down as people's confidence returns. We should not expect the unemployment rate to remain as high as it is now.

However, when a new report shows almost 2 million more people applying for unemployment, how is it possible for the rate to go down? Unless, of course, if more people are returning to work and they have the numbers to reflect that? Usually, the numbers lag behind the actual facts, it has been reported.

Regardless, Democrats should not expect to use unemployment figures as a political issue. Unless, of course, the rate remains above 10%. The rate should go down. If it doesn't, then Mr Trump would bear the blame, just like every other president before him.

28 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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This is not a typical recession. (Original Post) kentuck Jun 2020 OP
"Unemployment has doubled under Trump" tinrobot Jun 2020 #1
The rate should go down. kentuck Jun 2020 #4
I hope it does for the sake of the unemployed. tinrobot Jun 2020 #15
Agreed. kentuck Jun 2020 #16
It's not a typical recession. Igel Jun 2020 #2
We are in for Wellstone ruled Jun 2020 #3
I differ on the "economy was doing good". Newest Reality Jun 2020 #5
Everything is relative... kentuck Jun 2020 #8
Of course... Newest Reality Jun 2020 #9
Excellent point! kentuck Jun 2020 #10
***NOTE*** BLS Numbers Are Cooked. "Continuing [unemployment] Claims" numbers went up !!! uponit7771 Jun 2020 #6
Economic slowdown was already expected causing interest rates to drop before February wishstar Jun 2020 #7
A few counter-points to stir the pot, Kentuck... KY_EnviroGuy Jun 2020 #11
I mostly agree with your points. kentuck Jun 2020 #12
Thanks, Kentuck. Good points. n/t KY_EnviroGuy Jun 2020 #18
Many businesses that some people might have returned to will go out of business... Silent3 Jun 2020 #13
True. kentuck Jun 2020 #14
"Vaccine or no vaccine" too though? czarjak Jun 2020 #17
This is as bizarre and atypical as we've ever had. Strong stock prices, Hortensis Jun 2020 #19
You are wrong. I live in Ohio and many jobs that began as furlough are not layoffs...as GM,Ford Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #20
Thank you very much!, Demsrule86. kentuck Jun 2020 #21
I am sorry that is not what I meant...people who do not live in the rust belt wouldn't know that. Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #22
I prefer to blame it on the planets... kentuck Jun 2020 #24
That works for me... those f'ing planets! Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #28
I fear what you say is absolutely true... jimlup Jun 2020 #23
You said something very important about political strategies. kentuck Jun 2020 #25
May be PPP related - businesses had to put people back on the payroll to avoid paying loan aikoaiko Jun 2020 #26
Thanks for that reminder. kentuck Jun 2020 #27

tinrobot

(10,848 posts)
1. "Unemployment has doubled under Trump"
Fri Jun 5, 2020, 02:07 PM
Jun 2020

Easy ad to write. If the rate is much above 8%, very easy to justify.

Don't shy away from hitting them on the economy. Tear down what they think is their strength. Karl Rove did it all the time.

tinrobot

(10,848 posts)
15. I hope it does for the sake of the unemployed.
Fri Jun 5, 2020, 02:59 PM
Jun 2020

But if it is any higher than before, hit him over the head with it.

Unemployment was around 4% last year. If it drops from today's number to "only" 8%, then he's doubled the number of unemployed.


Igel

(35,197 posts)
2. It's not a typical recession.
Fri Jun 5, 2020, 02:10 PM
Jun 2020

I'm iffy on calling it a recession so far: "government-mandated recession" sounds bad, when the underlying assumptions of economic downturns aren't actually met for use of the term "recession". We rely on the usual definition, which works perfectly well in the usual context--but remove the context and the definition's gone wobbly.

However, I haven't found a prediction I think is reasonable. I've seen predictions I've liked and disliked, but none that had the actual logical structure and evidence-argued reasoning that would give me any confidence that the prediction wasn't just externalized likes or dislikes. For the most part, I've seen predictions that translate into "this is what I like" and analysis and endorsements of the predictions that boil down to "yeah, I (don't) like those."

 

Wellstone ruled

(34,661 posts)
3. We are in for
Fri Jun 5, 2020, 02:10 PM
Jun 2020

a period of years with hard Structural Unemployment. Auto's will move as much assembly and Stamping to Robotics,estimates a month or so ago predicted anywhere from12k-20k or more UAW workers being eliminated within a year. 3-D printing is already eliminating the need for Stamp Shop and ortherJob shop Workers.

And in the meantime,we are going to be showered with bullshit statistics.

Newest Reality

(12,712 posts)
5. I differ on the "economy was doing good".
Fri Jun 5, 2020, 02:11 PM
Jun 2020

To me, we are seeing signs that OUR economy was doing bad and getting worse and the economy for the privileged was doing great and continuing to prey on the have nots.

A gushing up economy has been a literal drain on large swaths of Americans all PR and spin aside. The economic hoover vacuum can only suck so much out of us before that becomes a critical issue that can lead to unrest. When you are told you are in a booming economy, it is a good idea to look around and ask, "Booming for whom?"

The rising tide has only severed raise mostly yachts and takes our small row boats into the financial undertow, often to rest in Davy Jones' Locker. Many of us have no ability to even recover from small emergencies let alone make it for the long haul and into something called retirement, if you remember what that meant,

There are plenty of facts and statistics that indicate that you can only pull off a heist like that for so long and the looting can not be tolerated past a certain point. We are at that point. It is important to recognize that as a contributing factor to our potential collapse and dis-identify as much as possible with a system that is becoming more and more unbalanced. When there is extreme unbalance, don't things tend to tip over?

Newest Reality

(12,712 posts)
9. Of course...
Fri Jun 5, 2020, 02:20 PM
Jun 2020

Except for the logic of that phrase. I have pondered it. If EVERYTHING is relative, then so is that statement and therefore it negates itself and the premise comes into question along with philosophical implications.

Of course, it is hard to express a complex situation like this sometimes without painting with the very broad brush, (and I, for one, should use that as a disclaimer sometimes) for the sake of brevity and it is only one perspective that deserves counterpoints. I base mine on a general amalgamation of various factors I have read about or seen and then express my personal synopsis based on that.

kentuck

(110,950 posts)
10. Excellent point!
Fri Jun 5, 2020, 02:33 PM
Jun 2020

I suppose there is a "real" world and an "ideal" world.

I personally believe America was created from an ideal, although the "real" world was very different at that time, and still is very different even today.

Philosophically, I think it is the purpose of man to strive for the "ideal".

wishstar

(5,267 posts)
7. Economic slowdown was already expected causing interest rates to drop before February
Fri Jun 5, 2020, 02:14 PM
Jun 2020

I noticed with a couple of maturing CD's that Interest rates on highest yield CD's dropped from close to 3% to 2% by January even before pandemic hit, so obviously Fed was vending off recessionary trend not connected to virus, so can't blame virus entirely for slowdown. Also there was report that US businesses and individuals had highest rates of debt in history before the virus hit.

KY_EnviroGuy

(14,483 posts)
11. A few counter-points to stir the pot, Kentuck...
Fri Jun 5, 2020, 02:42 PM
Jun 2020

1. Economist say the only reason unemployment in the U.S. was so low before (post-recession) was because low wages, loss of high-paying jobs and inflation forced more people into work of any kind just to survive. In other words, more of our workforce has become desperate (which is where Republicans want us).
2. The economy cannot return to prior levels until the pandemic is completely under control so the restriction are lifted on business relying on crowded, high-turnover trade.
3. We don't yet know what long-term health effects will be from over 2-million virus infections will be relating to work force performance. That number could conceivably double by the time we're done.
4. As always, business will use any excuse for reducing their workforce costs. Many will raise the workload on existing employees rather than call all of the previous people back to work.
5. A lot of seasonal employees (many temps) have been hired for a surge of vacation activity for recently reopened beach and resort areas. However, I don't see how a serious spike in virus cases and deaths can be avoided considering the typical carelessness of many Americans. Some areas reopened in Europe have already had it bite them in the ass and they've had to reclose some activities.
6. Over the last few months under lockdown restrictions, Americans have accumulated a vast do list relating to healthcare, home maintenance, eating out, travel and recreation. Once that do list is checked off, business activity may tumble again.

Looking forward to any counterpoints you may have to offer.

KY (playing Mr. Skeptic today).......

kentuck

(110,950 posts)
12. I mostly agree with your points.
Fri Jun 5, 2020, 02:50 PM
Jun 2020

The low minimum wage has been a reality for a very long time. I agree that Republicans prefer people (workers) to be in the survival mode.

This pandemic is far from over, in my opinion.

If we are getting a thousand deaths per day during these summer months, can we even imagine what the death rate might be if we were in the winter months, during the flu season? This is not a good omen, in my opinion.

Silent3

(15,020 posts)
13. Many businesses that some people might have returned to will go out of business...
Fri Jun 5, 2020, 02:55 PM
Jun 2020

...before this is over, and the jobs lost there will take much longer to get back.

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
19. This is as bizarre and atypical as we've ever had. Strong stock prices,
Fri Jun 5, 2020, 04:28 PM
Jun 2020

most untethered from reality.

Demsrule86

(68,355 posts)
20. You are wrong. I live in Ohio and many jobs that began as furlough are not layoffs...as GM,Ford
Fri Jun 5, 2020, 05:01 PM
Jun 2020

have reduced line speed. My own husband is laid off...and many people around here are now permanently laid off. Restaurants are closing and retail as well.

kentuck

(110,950 posts)
21. Thank you very much!, Demsrule86.
Fri Jun 5, 2020, 05:07 PM
Jun 2020

The people need to know the news from the heartland. Thank you for reporting in.

I have been wrong many times.

Demsrule86

(68,355 posts)
22. I am sorry that is not what I meant...people who do not live in the rust belt wouldn't know that.
Fri Jun 5, 2020, 05:45 PM
Jun 2020

I didn't mean you are wrong...the idea that the economy is improving is wrong...please accept my apology. Sometimes, you fail to say what you mean...this is one of those times.

jimlup

(7,968 posts)
23. I fear what you say is absolutely true...
Fri Jun 5, 2020, 06:03 PM
Jun 2020

the celebration is much too early.

Speaking of Marathon runners I have seen it many times, a marathon runner goes out way way way too fast and while glory is there as they begin it soon fades to a persistent misery and finally ends in desperate defeat.

I think democrats don't need to worry about "campaign issues" Honestly, trying to show analytically why our candidate is best will not work. Instead we appeal to their emotions. The Repukes figured this out before we did but we should still be able to grasp it.

Don't try and teach people why your candidate is best. People do not vote by analytic reasoning. Instead appeal to their emotions - it works much better.

And in the current situation, perhaps all we need to really do is stand clear and make sure not to get any dirt on us as the opposition falls deep into the mud pit.

kentuck

(110,950 posts)
25. You said something very important about political strategies.
Fri Jun 5, 2020, 06:45 PM
Jun 2020

"Instead appeal to their emotions - it works much better."

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