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sunonmars

(8,656 posts)
Thu Jun 18, 2020, 08:18 AM Jun 2020

How long before some red states beginning tipping to majority Latino/AA?

I really think within the next 10 years, we are going to see some of these states start tipping away and the GOP will be in real trouble.

People hear white and assume it means just, it doesn't, you have white hispanic , white latino also included in that baseline figure.

States such as Mississippi where AA's are 40% of the population but 70% of the children under 1 are now African American.
Mississippi had the highest rate of increase in people identifying as mixed-race, up 70 percent in the decade.

You can see where the changes in Georgia are happening,

As of 2011, 58.8% of Georgia's population younger than age 1 were minorities (meaning they had at least one parent who was not non-Hispanic white) compared to other states like California with 75.1%, New York with 55.6%, and Texas with 69.8%.

In Georgia, the % of whites was 71%, in 2010, it had dropped to 59% -12 in a decade, now 10 years later, that is going to be an interesting note from the next census.


In Texas in 2010, 49 percent of all births were Hispanics; 35 percent were non-Hispanic whites; 11.5 percent were non-Hispanic blacks, and 4.3 percent were Asians/Pacific Islanders. Based on Census Bureau data released in February 2011, for the first time in recent history, Texas's white population is below 50 percent (45 percent) and Hispanics grew to 38 percent. Between 2000 and 2010, the total population growth by 20.6 percent, but Hispanics growth by 65 percent, whereas non-Hispanic whites grew by only 4.2 percent. Texas has the fifth highest rate of teenage births in the nation and a plurality of these are to Hispanics.

Florida is fast becoming a state that will tip over soon when it comes race.

In 1970 Hispanics were 6.6% of the population, they were 26.1% in 2018. The AA population is 17% of Florida. White Alone has gone from 77% in 1970 to only 53% now in Florida. Give it 4 years and I strongly suspect the tipping point will be achieved. As of 2011, 57% of Florida's population younger than age 1 were minorities (meaning they had at least one parent who was not non-Hispanic white).

There is a reason that New Mexico is tipping heavily away from the GOP. The U.S. Census Bureau estimated that 48% of the total 2015 population was Hispanic or Latino of any race, the highest of any state. Its a fair assumption to say within the next 5 years, I would bet that NM becomes a majority Hispanic state.

Arizona : In 1980, the Census Bureau reported Arizona's population as 16.2% Hispanic, 5.6% Native American, and 74.5% non-Hispanic white.[58] In 2010, the racial makeup of the state was: Hispanics or Latinos of any race made up 29.6% of the state's population. Non-Hispanic whites formed 57.8% of the total population and that was 10 years, again Birth rates among latinos are outstripping that of whites. Another state at tipping point as the white population drifts downward.

Now we can see why the GOP and the racists are screaming and going mad, they have realised they are at the tipping point of where they start becoming less of a force. If birth rates continue lower for white parents as compared to higher mixed race and minority parents birth rates then its game over in a few years.

If even some of these states start tipping away, its over for the GOP in every way.






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How long before some red states beginning tipping to majority Latino/AA? (Original Post) sunonmars Jun 2020 OP
Arizona is right there. bearsfootball516 Jun 2020 #1
How the hell did i miss Arizona there..... sunonmars Jun 2020 #2
added in. sunonmars Jun 2020 #6
And that's why Republicans are implementing voter suppression laws Proud liberal 80 Jun 2020 #3
of course, that however only staves of the inevitable for a short period of time. sunonmars Jun 2020 #8
All true jimfields33 Jun 2020 #4
Indeed of course it does but the downward trend of white numbers and births in those states sunonmars Jun 2020 #5
The hypocrites of the republicans knows no bounds jimfields33 Jun 2020 #7
Mostly leaning Dem but not monolithic. There are plenty of wingnut Hispanics and divisions UTUSN Jun 2020 #9
It's not just the "browning of America." But the rural / metro disparity. SoonerPride Jun 2020 #10

bearsfootball516

(6,369 posts)
1. Arizona is right there.
Thu Jun 18, 2020, 08:20 AM
Jun 2020

I know it’s considered a tossup this year but in 2024, that may be the first year it’s considered “Lean Dem”

And getting Arizona into the blue column would be huge considering it means we wouldn’t have to rely on Wisconsin anymore, an overwhelmingly white state.

jimfields33

(15,462 posts)
4. All true
Thu Jun 18, 2020, 08:25 AM
Jun 2020

Of course it depends on the percentage of Hispanics that will vote republican. That will decide elections i’d imagine.

sunonmars

(8,656 posts)
5. Indeed of course it does but the downward trend of white numbers and births in those states
Thu Jun 18, 2020, 08:28 AM
Jun 2020

will have profound impact.

I guarantee as soon as some of these states start tipping over, the GOP will suddenly want the popular vote implemented and the electoral college dumped.

UTUSN

(70,496 posts)
9. Mostly leaning Dem but not monolithic. There are plenty of wingnut Hispanics and divisions
Thu Jun 18, 2020, 11:36 AM
Jun 2020

Last edited Thu Jun 18, 2020, 01:49 PM - Edit history (1)

such as Mexican-American vs Cubans and others. Tensions within sub-groups and between sub-groups. The first generation Cubans solidified their Repuke status because of their CIA history, hatred of JFK/Dems over the Bay of Pigs. And a key point about immigrants is that those who are wingnuts here were wingnuts of their own brand where they were before. The Cuban refugees were displaced by CASTRO, were of the BATISTA dictatorship class (i.e., upper income, sugar plantation owners) to start with.

And above all, unlike African-Americans who have a strong *VOTING* impetus via their hard-won exercising of their rights and their Movement and LBJ partnership, (*GENERALIZING* here: ) Latinos generally DON'T VOTE. When the population numbers get high enough, this will be offset a bit, but it is still a significant factor especially in conjunction with the percentage of their wingnuts.

Even now before the fully decisive population shift happens, Texas could be Blue, as BEGALA said, "Texas is not a Red state, it's a NON-VOTING state."






SoonerPride

(12,286 posts)
10. It's not just the "browning of America." But the rural / metro disparity.
Thu Jun 18, 2020, 11:40 AM
Jun 2020

Plenty of red states have bright blue metropolitan areas. Big cities versus small rural communities.

trump loves to show the map of all the counties he won. Big empty swaths of land with hardly anyone in them.

That will only get worse for the republicans as time goes on.

Sure the panhandle of Oklahoma will be republican for the next 100 years.

But major metro areas keep getting bigger and bluer and eventually that will win out.





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