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captain queeg

(10,036 posts)
Wed Jun 24, 2020, 08:58 PM Jun 2020

Transmissibility. I think that's what they called it; Ro or something

Used to show current estimates of that number in worldometers but can’t find it now. You know, the number of people each infected person will likely infect. Important when doing the exponential growth calculations. I know there are other factors to take into account.

It’s pretty obvious numbers in the US are climbing and the more it spreads the faster it will likely spread. Anyway, anyone know what the current estimate is?

16 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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smirkymonkey

(63,221 posts)
4. Thank you.
Wed Jun 24, 2020, 09:11 PM
Jun 2020

That is very helpful. I live in Boston and have not left my apartment building since mid-March. My family is planning to gather for the July 4th holiday in southern Maine at my Sister's house. I will be coming from MA, my parents from upstate NY (rate is very low up there) and my brother and his family from VT. Another brother lives in Baltimore, but he will not be joining us.

I personally am very low risk and the rest of them are in very low risk areas so I think it should be ok as long as they don't have many visitors (this is my only worry). I would like it to just be us, but I am not in control. Anyway, very interesting graph.

Rhiannon12866

(203,034 posts)
5. I saw a map on MSNBC last night that gave 3 'safe" (now) states
Wed Jun 24, 2020, 09:19 PM
Jun 2020

New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts. But you know how it is here upstate so I'm worried, tourist season. Not much is open - yet - but when I went out last week I saw cars from Virginia, Tennessee and Florida!

 

smirkymonkey

(63,221 posts)
13. I know, it's funny that those of us who had it so bad to begin with are now the states
Wed Jun 24, 2020, 09:44 PM
Jun 2020

that have it under control and the red states are the ones that are taking off. Do you think there might be a reason for that?

I didn't realize your area attracted so many people from the southern states. I honestly think they should ban people from states with growing Covid-19 populations and enforce a mandatory social distancing and mask wearing policy. These people have no respect for anyone else and don't care if they spread the virus to an area that has been stabilized.

I feel very sorry for you that you have to put up with these people. Will you still be able to isolate over the summer if you need to? Can you go someplace else to escape the tourist crowds?

You live in such a beautiful area, I can see why so many people would want to come there, but like you, I would be very annoyed having people from states who are careless about this descend upon my town like this still isn't a problem.

Please be careful, Rhiannon! Take care of yourself!

Rhiannon12866

(203,034 posts)
16. Well, with no national leadership, it's been up to the governors
Thu Jun 25, 2020, 01:42 AM
Jun 2020

And we've seen how that's worked out. I was thinking today that my fate during this pandemic has been tied to where I happen to live and I was born in New York, went to summer camp in Vermont and to boarding school in Massachusetts, but I still live an hour from where I was born (Albany). We've been extremely fortunate to have Governor Cuomo.

The thing is, we're just south of Lake George, so the tourist influx spills over here. On my short trip to work I used to remind myself to look out when I drove by the highway exit during the summer since there was often a nasty bottleneck there. But this year should be much different, so much is closed. The amusement park where I worked summers has yet to open and it was always open during June, we got lots of school groups. I guess the beaches are semi-open, but that's about it, masks are required everywhere and the only restaurants are drive thru fast food places, take out pizza or recently opened outdoor dining. I just don't see the attraction, but I never understood the appeal of wall-to-wall people in Lake George anyway. The lake is pretty, but it's much nicer up north without the crowds.

And when I wrote the previous post, I was on my way home after doing my weekly errands, groceries, pet food, stopped by the cemetery and today I had to make my monthly stop at the pharmacy. I decided to get ice cream since I won't be going out again, stopped at the Stewart's nearest my house where - like everyplace else - there are notices on the entrance mandating face coverings and "social distancing." The larger stores even have one-way aisles and six-foot floor markings at the checkouts.

So I pulled up, barely avoiding a truck that didn't see to know where it was going. It parked too and three young guys got out and, as expected, they were running in and out of the store, no masks, so I just sat and waited. I got out as soon as they left just in time to encounter a couple coming out, no masks, either. And when I went in the store there was another jerk walking around in this fairly small store, talking on a cell phone, no mask! I got my ice cream and left.

I don't know how they're going to enforce these protective mandates if people just ignore them. Are they supposed to be enforced by the 20-something girl at the check out? Earlier in my travels, I passed another Stewart's (there are a lot of them) and when I was stopped at the light I noticed two middle aged women going in the entrance, maskless. But they immediately left again and I was stopped long enough to see them get masks out of their car. I guess if I ever feel the need for ice cream again, that's the store I should choose.

Demsrule86

(68,352 posts)
6. My family will meet in South Carolina on a lake as we always do...everyone has been quarantined...
Wed Jun 24, 2020, 09:23 PM
Jun 2020

We won't go out except to get groceries and my brother says we can get stuff delivered. The house is a rental...no one there but us. We grew up on a lake...and as we get older, we try to meet at least once a years. I am going and my middle daughter will come...my son is working autos and his plant has covid...his wife is preggers so he won't go. My youngest daughter in college is working at a day care and can't get the times off. But I want to see my brothers and sisters. I will be very careful.

 

smirkymonkey

(63,221 posts)
12. That sounds nice. I am trying to weigh the risk, and I think it should be ok.
Wed Jun 24, 2020, 09:36 PM
Jun 2020

But I also want to see my family. You never know these days if it might be the last time you see each other. I know that is a horrible way to think, but I would rather take on a slight amount of risk to see them than to be entirely isolated and risk not seeing them again. I hope you have a wonderful time with your family!

Buckeye_Democrat

(14,847 posts)
2. I've been following this site's estimates...
Wed Jun 24, 2020, 09:02 PM
Jun 2020

... and projections, since it was the most accurate when I did comparisons a few weeks ago:

https://covid19-projections.com

(I might also be biased since I majored in mathematics too.)

Ms. Toad

(33,915 posts)
11. It says Ohio was updated today -
Wed Jun 24, 2020, 09:34 PM
Jun 2020

and Ohio is slightly above 1.0 at this point.

I looked at it last week (either Tuesday or Thursday) when Ohio had a cluster of 4 counties that were 1.1 or higher, and this site did not reflect that.

Ms. Toad

(33,915 posts)
15. I don't have a good formla -
Thu Jun 25, 2020, 01:24 AM
Jun 2020

They are different things, with no easy correlation.

R0 = 1.3 is the average number of people each infected person transmits the disease to during the entire time they are infectious. So, over time, if the number is greater than 1 the number of infected people grows. If it is less than 1 the number of infected people decreases.

R0 depends on a lot of factors, but there's no precise relationship. Places where people are mostly staying home, mask wearing, social distancing, low density population, and the strain is less infectious will have a lower R0. Places where there are no restrictions, people are acting like fools, Trump comes to town, high density population, and the strain is more infectious will have a higher R0.

I don't even have an approximation of how they arrive at R0 - but it is based on observations in the community. In Ohio an R0 is calculated (at least) for every county.

An R0 of 1.3 would probably double in about 11 days (assuming each person is contagious for around 14 days, of first 100 patients, 7.14 of them acquired the disease each day for 14 and spread it to their 1.3 people on day 14.). If I use 4.2 day incubation period (rather than spreading the new infections out on a daily basis), I get 12.5 days for the number of infections to double. So that's in the ballpark.

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