Opinion - Why Trump is unlikely to pull off an election surprise against Biden ... Market Watch
At the moment the short answer is “No”.
Looking just at the 2020 polls, an election observer could be forgiven for thinking that former Vice President Joe Biden has an easy path to unseating Trump. Yet few prognosticators are proclaiming an impending Biden victory. Perhaps this is because, despite a similar deficit in the summer of 2016, then-candidate Trump surprised everyone with an election night victory over his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton.
A big part of that 2016 story is late-deciding voters decisively breaking towards Trump, potentially handing him victory and several swing states. One post-election analysis (APPOR 2016 Post-Election Report) found that Trump gained an average of 1% nationally and 3% in four swing states due to outperforming Clinton among the roughly one-in-eight voters making their decision in the week before Election Day.
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This year, undecided voters are more likely to be female, less likely to have a college degree, more likely to be younger, and are more likely to be a person of color.
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Interesting analysis.
= new reply since forum marked as read
My gawd. Is Candy Crush really that captivating? 
"People listened to me and corrected their wrongs. Hooray for me!" 
for Trump's victory. 10 days before the election he announces another investigation into Hillary's emails after discovering some of them on Weiner's computer. He has no evidence that's anything's amiss, he just sees them on Weiner's computer and his big mouth starts flapping. Of course there's nothing new with those emails, they'd all been examined before and there was nothing illegal about them, but by opening his gaping maw he sows enough doubt in some voter's minds to swing the election.
And then there's Donny's buddy Vlad. His lies and distortions throughout the internet also put many people off about Hillary. I don't think any woman in history has had more lies and distortions directed at her than Hillary Clinton. 
Added together, those two heinous acts cost Hillary more than enough votes to swing the election to The Orange Asshole.
