Texas had a 3 point swing to Clinton in 2016, a 4 point swing to Beto in 2018

Run with energy, every county, every major city. Run with optimism. Run with enthusiasm. And absolutely run with a Whataburger in reach.

That's how Beto did it. Made the R's ramp up their spending an commit more resources. Win or lose, that puts other close races within reach. And despite losing, the way Beto charged up the steepest and best-defended hill in the campaign inspired a lot of people down-ticket to charge their own hills. A lot of them succeeded because of the example at the top of the ticket.

So I say, campaign like you're going to win it, and send that McDonalds-chomping film-flam artist packing. Run like Beto; even if you lose at the top, that base will swell and put us in better shape turning the state bluer

Take a look at the chart from Cook Political

Snip-

2020 Electoral College
Democrats have 308 electoral votes in the Solid, Likely and Lean categories and would need 0 electoral votes from the Toss Up column 43 Electoral Votes
Arizona (11) Georgia (16) Maine 2nd CD (1) North Carolina (15)

Republicans have 187 electoral votes in the Solid, Likely and Lean categories and would need 43 (100%) electoral votes from the Toss Up column plus 40 votes from the Lean Democrat column

To see it laid out as only cook political can see the link

https://cookpolitical.com/sites/default/files/2020-07/EC%20Ratings.072320.2.pdf?

Biden and Kelly have been polling exceptionally strong there.