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Mon Sep 7, 2020, 10:16 PM

Is Putin Distracted?

Russia's primary income comes from oil, natural gas and wheat sales to Europe, and at the moment, neither oil nor natural gas are doing that well. There are also two sets of protests, one in Belarus (where a Putin sympathizer is under siege) and one in Kamchatka, which could very well break away and deprive Russia a Pacific facing coast. This means that Putin's financial resources are under a lot of pressure right now.

I have to wonder if part of the reason that Trump is panicking at this point is that the Russians aren't coming to his rescue the way that he expected them to. He's showing signs that his campaign funds are drying up, and he's now seriously pissing off the military and explicitly supporting his white supremacist shock troops, rather than being subtle about it.

Thoughts?

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Response to kurtcagle (Original post)

Mon Sep 7, 2020, 10:22 PM

1. Putin is capable of multitasking, but I'm beginning to think Trump may have become a liability.

His mission in this country has worked quite well and the divisiveness will last long after Trump is gone.

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Response to jaysunb (Reply #1)

Tue Sep 8, 2020, 06:06 AM

14. Putin may be taking more of a long view this time

Trump has given Putin all that he can. Probably a lot of national security info. He has weakened NATO. Maybe Putin feels like he should back in the likely event that Biden is president.

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Response to kurtcagle (Original post)

Mon Sep 7, 2020, 10:23 PM

2. But their interference is not a money

pit in the scheme of things. Pretty cheap to sow chaos, hack, etc and I suspect a major priority to keep his knee on the USAís neck.

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Response to moonscape (Reply #2)

Mon Sep 7, 2020, 10:26 PM

5. Cheap doesn't mean quality

With Trump sowing his own constant chaos itís hard to unify people in support of Trump. So I wonder if Putin is putting forth a half-ass effort (cheap) but of questionable effect?

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Response to moonscape (Reply #2)

Mon Sep 7, 2020, 10:28 PM

6. What would Putin do?

Precisely what Trump has done. Stiff our allies and restart a domestic civil war.

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Response to kurtcagle (Original post)

Mon Sep 7, 2020, 10:24 PM

3. I wondered the same

And in fact was mentioning that to my husband. Putin has a lot of his own domestic crisis on his plate and with Trump constantly creating his OWN chaos itís got to be much harder to form a focused attack. I was wondering if Putin may have decided itís not worth the man power and money when heís got his own sh*t going on at home that require the same resources.

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Response to crimycarny (Reply #3)

Tue Sep 8, 2020, 03:16 AM

11. Belarus is a lesson for Trump.

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Response to kurtcagle (Original post)

Mon Sep 7, 2020, 10:26 PM

4. Trump may havta give back the skim.....

staying out of jail should provide enough motivation to invest in his campaign.

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Response to kurtcagle (Original post)

Mon Sep 7, 2020, 10:35 PM

7. Vlad may have to call in all Trump's loans.

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Response to kurtcagle (Original post)

Mon Sep 7, 2020, 10:41 PM

8. Putin to T-wrecks

My Little Buddy go find an Island with some castaways-you are a natural on a comedy pokazat'.


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Response to kurtcagle (Original post)

Tue Sep 8, 2020, 02:09 AM

9. We won't know if he did come to his aid until Joe is President. The

one positive this time is we know that Putin's element of surprise is gone.

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Response to kurtcagle (Original post)

Tue Sep 8, 2020, 03:02 AM

10. Interesting thoughts.

 

I don't really think Putin is as powerful as most people think he is. As you have stated, they have their own problems to deal with and I am not so sure that their primary focus is on us.

I came across an interesting podcast which is a little dated (2018), but kind of sheds a lot of light on the situation in Russia. It gets interesting regarding Trump at about 23 mins. in, although the entire podcast is worth a listen. It's with Julia Ioffe from the Atlantic (and other publications). I have posted below if anyone wants to take the time to listen.

https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/julia-ioffe-what-vladimir-putin-wants

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Response to kurtcagle (Original post)

Tue Sep 8, 2020, 03:36 AM

12. The trolls are all over social media. This time people are more aware

Remember that even if the attacks were more effective against Hillary she still got millions more votes. And Trump won the key swing states by a very small amount.

One of the reasons attacks against her were more effective was she is a woman and James Comey .

Biden doesn't have those things.

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Response to kurtcagle (Original post)

Tue Sep 8, 2020, 05:28 AM

13. Kamchatka breaking away? I doubt it. Putin will put a stop to that.

Putin won't let go of chunks of Russia. He won't let go of Crimea, and that's a recently-annexed chunk of property.

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Response to kurtcagle (Original post)

Tue Sep 8, 2020, 07:29 AM

15. No, not unless he's run out of trolls, Novichok, and third-floor windows.

The trump operation is dirt cheap, especially with so many Americans helping him. trump himself isn't necessary, only that the US remain ungovernable and sick.

Belarus is the long-term problem, and the danger there is for them to see health and success from their neighbors. They still haven't recovered completely from WWII, let alone the Soviet era. But it's a linchpin of the post-soviet empire.

If there is a third front for him, it would be the other oligarchs. As long as they can remain overpaid, he's secure.

I don't think people are yet getting how hybrid warfare works.

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