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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsToday's 538 election update mostly good news
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-where-biden-and-trump-have-gained-the-most-ground/From 30,000 feet, the presidential race looks much as it did when we first launched our presidential election forecast in August. Joe Biden has about a 3 in 4 chance of winning compared to President Trumps roughly 1 in 4 shot, according to FiveThirtyEights forecast. Bidens chances did dip down to a 2 in 3 shot after the Republican National Convention on Aug. 31, but overall, his chances of winning have hung out in the low- to mid-70 percent range. By contrast, Trumps chances have mostly bounced around in the mid- to high-20s.
But underneath the topline numbers, there has still been some fairly big movement in a handful of key battleground states, and the news has been mostly good for Biden. If we look at how much Bidens odds have changed in states where both he and Trump have at least a 1 in 10 shot of winning since we launched the forecast on Aug. 12, Biden has improved his chances in 17 of 20 states. And in some cases, Bidens improvement has been considerable +15 percentage points in Minnesota, +12 points in Arizona and +10 points in Wisconsin, for instance. By comparison, Trumps odds have really only improved in Florida, although he hasnt lost much ground in states such as Georgia and Ohio, which may signal that Bidens electoral gains will not be that expansive. (Trump still leads in Texas, for instance, despite Bidens improvement there.)
But Bidens improvement in Arizona is particularly noteworthy as Arizona is a cornerstone of most Electoral College maps in which Trump wins. That is, if Trump carries the state, he wins the election 59 percent of time, according to our forecast; but if Biden wins Arizona, Trump has less than a 7 percent chance of winning overall. And three polls released in the last few days show Biden ahead in the Grand Canyon State, although by varying margins. A CBS News/YouGov poll found him up by 3 points while a Gravis Marketing survey gave him just a 2-point lead over Trump. But an OH Predictive Insights poll gave Biden a much larger 10-point advantage, 52 percent to 42 percent.
Meanwhile, Bidens improvement in Minnesota is also bad news for Trump, as the campaign has long viewed Minnesota as a potential target to expand the map the president only lost the state by about 2 points in 2016. However, Minnesota seems to be steadily moving away from Trump. An ABC News/Washington Post survey released today gave Biden a sizable 16-point edge, 57 percent to 41 percent, among likely voters. And two separate polls released this weekend by CBS News/YouGov and the New York Times/Siena College each found Biden ahead by 9 points in Minnesota, 50 percent to 41 percent. Still, a Morning Consult survey released yesterday might buoy the Trump campaigns hopes of breaking through in Minnesota, as it put Bidens lead at only 4 points. And Trump is doing better in Wisconsin, although hes still an underdog there as recent polls suggest Biden has a fairly sizable advantage. A CNN/SSRS survey released yesterday gave Biden a 10-point lead, while an ABC News/Washington Post survey out today gave Biden a 6-point edge. And this past weekend, the New York Times/Siena College found Biden up by 5 points there.
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