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Fri Sep 25, 2020, 01:08 AM

Just sent a letter to the public editor for NPR

Here is what it said:

I just want to make a comment about something I heard on NPR this afternoon. It was asserted by the host of the show and her guest that there is absolutely no way that we will know who won the election on election day due to the large number of absentee ballots. This is likely to be not true. According to election analysts such as Michael Mcdonald of the US Elections Project (https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html), most states actually have a very efficient system for counting mail ballots and will have the ballots cast prior to election day released likely after polls close in most states (ie. FL can begin counting ballots at 7AM 22 days before the election). In most states, the first results have been and will continue to be the early mail in ballots (ala the CA Democratic and TX primaries where Bernie Sanders had a large early lead based on the mail-ballots and the early vote). This is likely to account for a substantial portion of the vote totals now that most ballots will be cast by mail, and unless it is a close election, it is likely we will know based on this information who will win in the election on election day. Mail voting in states that have an efficient and competent process actually likely decreases the amount of time we will wait for most results on election day. Not vice versa, as most ballots will have been already counted before polls close.

There is also a perpetuation of the idea that Trump will be ahead on election day in the votes, and declare victory before all the votes are counted. Given the partisan makeup of the early vote in states like FL, NC and GA, it is unlikely the first results released in these key states will favor Trump -an assertion also based on pre election polls of which supporters of a candidate are going to vote early like this Pew Research poll: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/08/26/biden-supporters-in-states-where-it-is-hardest-to-vote-by-mail-are-most-concerned-about-voting-this-fall/.


https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/vopp-table-16-when-absentee-mail-ballot-processing-and-counting-can-begin.aspx



PS: To reiterate, I am only referring to states that have their $#!@(stuff) together with their mail in voting process. Something that for the moment does not apply to MI, WI and PA -three key states that will also determine the election if it is close. The point of this comment, however, is that right now it isn't looking like it will be a close election: meaning we will know who won on election night if things keep going the way they are.

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Reply Just sent a letter to the public editor for NPR (Original post)
jorgevlorgan Sep 2020 OP
TreasonousBastard Sep 2020 #1
jorgevlorgan Sep 2020 #2

Response to jorgevlorgan (Original post)

Fri Sep 25, 2020, 01:17 AM

1. Maybe. But mailed in ballots could take up to a week or more due to APO/FPO delays for the...

military and USPS delays in general.

You are assuming it will not be close and the missing, perhaps, 5,000, ballots won't count anyway if Biden is ahead by 6,000. But they still have to count those votes before it's official, even though it can be called.

And there will be recount fights galore if it's close.

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Response to TreasonousBastard (Reply #1)

Fri Sep 25, 2020, 01:32 AM

2. Yep

I am absolutely assuming it won't be close, which is a very likely scenario at this point and definitely not a "absolutely cannot know who will be elected on election night" probability.

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