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RandySF

(57,636 posts)
Tue Sep 29, 2020, 10:09 AM Sep 2020

Electoral College Rating Changes: Ohio and Iowa Move to Toss Up

In mid-June, we moved both Iowa and Ohio from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. At the time, we noted that while the polls were looking shaky for Pres. Trump, they were also catching him at what could be his lowest point of the cycle.

"We'll know soon enough if this trough is temporary," I wrote back on June 19, "or if he's done permanent damage to his re-election prospects among one of his most solid constituencies: white, working-class voters."

Well, it's late September, and polling in both states suggests that the Trump slump is real.

Back in mid-June, Biden's average lead in Ohio, according to FiveThirtyEight aggregator, was 2.6 percent. Today, Trump looks better, but only slightly so. He trails Biden by an average of 1.1 percent. In Iowa, Trump's narrow 0.6 percent lead over Biden in mid-June has barely budged. The latest FiveThirtyEight average puts it at 0.8 percent.



https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/electoral-college-rating-changes-ohio-and-iowa-move-toss

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Electoral College Rating Changes: Ohio and Iowa Move to Toss Up (Original Post) RandySF Sep 2020 OP
what happens when Texas is moved to "toss up"? beachbumbob Sep 2020 #1
The 270towin polling map has Texas as a toss up... Wounded Bear Sep 2020 #2
I trust Charlie Cook and his team. They're very nonpartisan Poiuyt Sep 2020 #3

Wounded Bear

(58,440 posts)
2. The 270towin polling map has Texas as a toss up...
Tue Sep 29, 2020, 10:13 AM
Sep 2020

Not good news for Repubs or Trump.



https://www.270towin.com/map-images/biden-trump-polling-map

That's not the "consensus" map that is predictive, it's the current polling per their numbers.

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