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Sun Oct 18, 2020, 05:13 PM

Jon Ralston's Nevada Early Voting Blog - 10/18/20 - 10:00 a.m.

Good morning, fellow ravenous data types. Here's where we are:

Clark firewall: 32,000 Dem lead (9 percent of active voters have cast ballots)

Statewide: 40,000 Dem lead (9 percent of vote in)

Details (does not include Clark in-person on this chart):

Washoe still has not reported mail or in-person from Saturday, and Clark is two days behind in reporting mail ballots. I'll post those numbers when I get them.

I will try to start every day posting the statewide lead and the Clark County firewall status (Dem lead in most populous county that has protected them in three straight presidential cycles from losses in the rurals). I remind you of two things:

---Can't say it enough: This is an orange year; the rest were apples. The surge in mail voting has changed everything. The effect is already palpable: The Democrats won Clark by only 7 percentage points Saturday; in 2016, it was 28 percent. But they also already had banked a 20,000-vote lead in mail. We will see if some fine old cannibalizing is occurring as voting goes on.

---By the end of early voting in 2016, the Clark firewall was at 73,000 voters and Donald Trump had already lost. Assuming at least two-thirds of the vote comes in before Election Day, the Democrats will need at least that to feel comfortable. The Dem statewide lead in 2016 after early voting was 45,000.

One day does not a trend make. So holster your ecstasy or despair.

Having said all of that:

Tons of GOP votes in the rurals to come, 35,000 non-major-party voters have cast ballots and 13 days of early voting left. Miles to go before I sleep (I don't know about the rest of you....). But that's where we are.

Updated, 10 AM, 10/18/20

Of course Washoe posts right after I did.

GOP won first day of in-person early voting there by 500 (Dems won big there in 2016 on first day but did not have that mail lead), not much action on mail counting front and Dems still have 2 to 1 lead with 16 percent of the vote in:

D -- 23,821

R -- 12,779

O -- 10,127


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