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Garion_55

(1,914 posts)
Fri Oct 30, 2020, 05:24 PM Oct 2020

Are the polls missing the youth vote?

When you have young votes up 600% in places I'm not sure the pollsters are Accounting for that huge increase when they do their polls.

Pollsters have to predict What the election day turnout is going to be as far as 53% Democrat 47% Republican and then they base their polling on those predictions.

I don't see how those predictions can be even close when you have a bunch of young people showing up by the millions that never voted before and you weren't anticipating them And didn't factor them into your polling data.

Either way my fingers are crossed I'm hoping for the best let's go blue!!

25 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Are the polls missing the youth vote? (Original Post) Garion_55 Oct 2020 OP
Exactly right AmericanCanuck Oct 2020 #1
Polls that sample landline phone users will miss most younger folks. nt Binkie The Clown Oct 2020 #2
That's another thing I was gonna mention Garion_55 Oct 2020 #3
Shoot! I'm 75 and I don't have a landline. Cell user only. nt Binkie The Clown Oct 2020 #5
This is not 2000. former9thward Oct 2020 #19
That used to be a major issue, about fifteen years ago... regnaD kciN Oct 2020 #7
some don't even answer numbers they don't recognize pstokely Oct 2020 #23
You'll never get the gift of a million dollars from a Nigerian prince. :( nt Binkie The Clown Oct 2020 #25
Yes! Boogiemack Oct 2020 #4
Hoping this is a factor in our favor Dem2 Oct 2020 #6
Could be Trumpocalypse Oct 2020 #8
The 18-24 turnout rate will be interesting Awsi Dooger Oct 2020 #9
And in 1964 no one under the age of 21 voted legally. PoindexterOglethorpe Oct 2020 #13
Thanks for reminding of that Awsi Dooger Oct 2020 #16
The Vietnam War played a role in that as well. crickets Oct 2020 #18
True, but somehow very few of those young soldiers PoindexterOglethorpe Oct 2020 #20
Yes. LV has got to underestimate youth vote when there's been no track record MaryMagdaline Oct 2020 #10
I posted about this earlier in the week. Drove by an early voting place here in Baton Rouge Goodheart Oct 2020 #11
I'll believe the youth vote Codeine Oct 2020 #12
The answer is we don't know qazplm135 Oct 2020 #14
Hope for it, don't count on it kurtcagle Oct 2020 #15
I don't trust anyone under 30. Buckeye_Democrat Oct 2020 #17
Youth and Senior vote ... Means blowout JCMach1 Oct 2020 #21
hope so krawhitham Oct 2020 #22
Perhaps it's because Trump is inescapable, for people of any age Silent3 Oct 2020 #24

Garion_55

(1,914 posts)
3. That's another thing I was gonna mention
Fri Oct 30, 2020, 05:28 PM
Oct 2020

How many young people do you know have land lines? And even if you were polling their cellphones how many of them would actually answer the phone and do the poll?

former9thward

(31,805 posts)
19. This is not 2000.
Fri Oct 30, 2020, 07:09 PM
Oct 2020

Pollsters call cell phones now. As far as not answering that applies to all phones -- not just cells. So if polls are going to be attacked for those reasons then why are polls touted here everyday?

regnaD kciN

(26,035 posts)
7. That used to be a major issue, about fifteen years ago...
Fri Oct 30, 2020, 05:33 PM
Oct 2020

But, nowadays, all pollsters I know of sample both landline and cell phones.

However, the "likely voter" screen they use may automatically discount young voters, since it's known they "never show up." It would be nice to prove them wrong this time.

Dem2

(8,166 posts)
6. Hoping this is a factor in our favor
Fri Oct 30, 2020, 05:30 PM
Oct 2020

It appears that the youth vote is up, but we'll have to see when the votes are counted.

 

Trumpocalypse

(6,143 posts)
8. Could be
Fri Oct 30, 2020, 05:35 PM
Oct 2020

if they are first time voters. Also, most polling models are based on the last election, thus if the youth vote was only 8% they are only weighted as 8% in the poll.

 

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)
9. The 18-24 turnout rate will be interesting
Fri Oct 30, 2020, 05:35 PM
Oct 2020

It hasn't reached 50% since 1964. Highest recently was 44% in 2008 only because young blacks turned out for Obama. It would be huge for Biden if somehow it went above 50% this time:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1096597/voter-turnout-18-24-year-olds-presidential-elections-historical/

PoindexterOglethorpe

(25,750 posts)
13. And in 1964 no one under the age of 21 voted legally.
Fri Oct 30, 2020, 05:52 PM
Oct 2020

It wasn't until 1971 that the voting age was lowered to 18. A lot of the rationale was that having to wait until age 21 simply discouraged a lot of younger voters, and this would improve turnout.

It really didn't do that much good.

If this year we are finally getting significant numbers of those between the ages of 18-24 actually voting, that would be huge. And lets just hope those younger voters keep it up.

 

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)
16. Thanks for reminding of that
Fri Oct 30, 2020, 06:12 PM
Oct 2020

That was before I was eligible so I didn't realize when the age was changed. That's definitely why the percentage dropped. I imagine if 21-24 were the entire pool it would have remained closer to 50%

crickets

(25,896 posts)
18. The Vietnam War played a role in that as well.
Fri Oct 30, 2020, 06:56 PM
Oct 2020

If you're being drafted and sent off to war, it's only fair to be able to vote on the people responsible for the drafting and sending. "Old enough to fight, old enough to vote."

MaryMagdaline

(6,849 posts)
10. Yes. LV has got to underestimate youth vote when there's been no track record
Fri Oct 30, 2020, 05:36 PM
Oct 2020

Of young people showing up.

Goodheart

(5,264 posts)
11. I posted about this earlier in the week. Drove by an early voting place here in Baton Rouge
Fri Oct 30, 2020, 05:36 PM
Oct 2020

and young people made up a SIGNIFICANT number of voters in line. Unlike anything I've ever seen before. And I'm 67.

 

Codeine

(25,586 posts)
12. I'll believe the youth vote
Fri Oct 30, 2020, 05:41 PM
Oct 2020

when the final numbers come in. But to answer your question it probably is underestimated; it statistically has to be modeled low because the youth turnout is invariably next to nothing.

kurtcagle

(1,601 posts)
15. Hope for it, don't count on it
Fri Oct 30, 2020, 06:03 PM
Oct 2020

We've seen too many elections where the youth vote was going to make a difference and it never materialized. I suspect that we will see more young people voting this year, not only because they despise Trump but because many are now un- or under- employed. However, I think that most pollsters are not factoring them in as much because historically they have not significantly contributed to the final outcomes.

This year may be different, and if it is, then this election will be a blowout. However, I'm taking the attitude that I will be delighted if they do, but not surprised if they don't.

Buckeye_Democrat

(14,848 posts)
17. I don't trust anyone under 30.
Fri Oct 30, 2020, 06:51 PM
Oct 2020

Kidding, and I also hope young people surprise everyone and vote in huge numbers!

Silent3

(15,020 posts)
24. Perhaps it's because Trump is inescapable, for people of any age
Sat Oct 31, 2020, 05:56 AM
Oct 2020

The youth vote has disappointed us time and again because so many young people tune out of politics. It's just background noise for many of them.

But you can't tune out from Trump. Trump always calls attention to himself, Trump is a constant assault on our senses.

And if Trump himself weren't enough to catch the attention of younger voters, COVID has certainly caught their attention.

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