General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsAre the polls missing the youth vote?
When you have young votes up 600% in places I'm not sure the pollsters are Accounting for that huge increase when they do their polls.
Pollsters have to predict What the election day turnout is going to be as far as 53% Democrat 47% Republican and then they base their polling on those predictions.
I don't see how those predictions can be even close when you have a bunch of young people showing up by the millions that never voted before and you weren't anticipating them And didn't factor them into your polling data.
Either way my fingers are crossed I'm hoping for the best let's go blue!!
AmericanCanuck
(1,102 posts)This is what is going to swing the election for Biden on top of the lead he already has.
Binkie The Clown
(7,911 posts)Garion_55
(1,914 posts)How many young people do you know have land lines? And even if you were polling their cellphones how many of them would actually answer the phone and do the poll?
Binkie The Clown
(7,911 posts)former9thward
(31,805 posts)Pollsters call cell phones now. As far as not answering that applies to all phones -- not just cells. So if polls are going to be attacked for those reasons then why are polls touted here everyday?
regnaD kciN
(26,035 posts)But, nowadays, all pollsters I know of sample both landline and cell phones.
However, the "likely voter" screen they use may automatically discount young voters, since it's known they "never show up." It would be nice to prove them wrong this time.
pstokely
(10,511 posts)I don't
Binkie The Clown
(7,911 posts)Boogiemack
(1,406 posts)Dem2
(8,166 posts)It appears that the youth vote is up, but we'll have to see when the votes are counted.
Trumpocalypse
(6,143 posts)if they are first time voters. Also, most polling models are based on the last election, thus if the youth vote was only 8% they are only weighted as 8% in the poll.
Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)It hasn't reached 50% since 1964. Highest recently was 44% in 2008 only because young blacks turned out for Obama. It would be huge for Biden if somehow it went above 50% this time:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1096597/voter-turnout-18-24-year-olds-presidential-elections-historical/
PoindexterOglethorpe
(25,750 posts)It wasn't until 1971 that the voting age was lowered to 18. A lot of the rationale was that having to wait until age 21 simply discouraged a lot of younger voters, and this would improve turnout.
It really didn't do that much good.
If this year we are finally getting significant numbers of those between the ages of 18-24 actually voting, that would be huge. And lets just hope those younger voters keep it up.
Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)That was before I was eligible so I didn't realize when the age was changed. That's definitely why the percentage dropped. I imagine if 21-24 were the entire pool it would have remained closer to 50%
crickets
(25,896 posts)If you're being drafted and sent off to war, it's only fair to be able to vote on the people responsible for the drafting and sending. "Old enough to fight, old enough to vote."
PoindexterOglethorpe
(25,750 posts)seem to have bothered to vote.
MaryMagdaline
(6,849 posts)Of young people showing up.
Goodheart
(5,264 posts)and young people made up a SIGNIFICANT number of voters in line. Unlike anything I've ever seen before. And I'm 67.
Codeine
(25,586 posts)when the final numbers come in. But to answer your question it probably is underestimated; it statistically has to be modeled low because the youth turnout is invariably next to nothing.
qazplm135
(7,447 posts)maybe, partially, not at all...don't know until Tuesday.
kurtcagle
(1,601 posts)We've seen too many elections where the youth vote was going to make a difference and it never materialized. I suspect that we will see more young people voting this year, not only because they despise Trump but because many are now un- or under- employed. However, I think that most pollsters are not factoring them in as much because historically they have not significantly contributed to the final outcomes.
This year may be different, and if it is, then this election will be a blowout. However, I'm taking the attitude that I will be delighted if they do, but not surprised if they don't.
Buckeye_Democrat
(14,848 posts)Kidding, and I also hope young people surprise everyone and vote in huge numbers!
JCMach1
(27,544 posts)krawhitham
(4,634 posts)Silent3
(15,020 posts)The youth vote has disappointed us time and again because so many young people tune out of politics. It's just background noise for many of them.
But you can't tune out from Trump. Trump always calls attention to himself, Trump is a constant assault on our senses.
And if Trump himself weren't enough to catch the attention of younger voters, COVID has certainly caught their attention.