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Roland99

(53,342 posts)
Tue Nov 3, 2020, 12:21 PM Nov 2020

Will Trump win [FL] again? Watch Florida's Sumter County for first election night clue.

Oct 17
Will Trump win [FL] again? Watch Florida's Sumter County for first election night clue.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/will-trump-win-again-watch-florida-s-sumter-county-first-n1243497
Last week, Democrats took delight in the spectacle of a 500-golf cart flotilla of Joe Biden supporters parading through Florida's largest retirement community en route to turn in their vote-by-mail ballots.

It was a rare sight: The Villages is one of the most staunchly Republican enclaves in the Sunshine State.

...

And it has trended Republican: it voted for Mitt Romney by 35 points in 2012, for Trump by 39 points in 2016, and for Florida GOP Sen. Rick Scott by 42 points in 2018. But the fact the Biden campaign has even so much as a pulse in Sumter gives Democrats hope they can narrow the margins in a Trump stronghold enough to win Florida — and cut off Trump's path to a second term.

...

I'll be looking at Sumter and Pinellas," says veteran Florida Democratic strategist Steve Schale, referring to another senior-heavy county in the St. Petersburg-Clearwater area. "Both of them are really old and over 80 percent white. And you could have 80 to 85 percent of the vote there reported by 7:15pm."


If Biden cuts the deficit in Sumter to around 30% (or even lower), then that’s a VERY good sign he’ll take FL. We’ll see how much seniors are willing to put self over lifelong patterns of bigotry (I’ll take it)



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Today (based upon @umichvoter99 analysis

combined totals from early voting/mail-in (and early party numbers for today)

Sumter Rep-51,185 Dem-20,305 total-86,797 Rep-59.0% Dem-23.4% (remainder would be Other/No Party)

59 - 23.4 = 35.6pts down slightly from 2016's 39pts

If Sumter remains UNDER 37pts I feel Biden stands a small chance in FL

If Sumter remains UNDER 36pts, that's toss-up territory for the state overall.


Should Sumter drop to 35pts or lower, might as well call it for Biden!
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Roland99

(53,342 posts)
2. Current live stats....
Tue Nov 3, 2020, 01:27 PM
Nov 2020

Votes %
Dem 20645 23.41 -36.05
Rep 52438 59.45
Other 15119 17.14
Total 88202 100.00

sandensea

(21,526 posts)
4. Could he STEAL it again, is the question
Tue Nov 3, 2020, 01:28 PM
Nov 2020

Electoral mulligans are state law in Flawrida - if you're a Republican.

Roland99

(53,342 posts)
6. Checking 3 other RED counties in the panhandle. Independents WAY up, Reps down, Dems slightly down
Tue Nov 3, 2020, 02:01 PM
Nov 2020



Only 1pm but several RED #Florida counties are lagging several %pts behind 2016 levels.

Seeing significantly higher "Other" votes in Escambia, Santa Rosa and Okaloosa counties in the Florida panhandle.

Dem %s lag 2016 but Rep %s down much larger.

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