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With Current AP/NYT Picks Biden has 96% Chance to Win per 538 Interactive Map (Original Post) Tommymac Nov 2020 OP
Hope he's right! TY! Cha Nov 2020 #1
Me Too Tommymac Nov 2020 #6
No worries.. It's only about Cha Nov 2020 #14
Joe just lost a little ground in Nevada Watchfoxheadexplodes Nov 2020 #2
The Nevada Guy on MSNBC said not to worry. Tommymac Nov 2020 #7
Ralston? Rstrstx Nov 2020 #10
Yeah - that guy. Tommymac Nov 2020 #11
Oh I know, have been up all night, can't sleep a wink Rstrstx Nov 2020 #20
Thank you, Jesus! Or whoever. The Velveteen Ocelot Nov 2020 #3
I feel you. Tommymac Nov 2020 #8
Nevada atse Nov 2020 #4
Didn't know that - Thank You! Tommymac Nov 2020 #12
Looking better... atse Nov 2020 #5
I posted here: 96% Chance to win per 539 Interactive map Tommymac Nov 2020 #9
Different atse Nov 2020 #16
Right. That map reflects the current AP/NYT Picks. Tommymac Nov 2020 #18
Yep, it's exact because we got NE-2. radius777 Nov 2020 #13
For Want of a Nail... Tommymac Nov 2020 #15
538 atse Nov 2020 #22
This election bdamomma Nov 2020 #17
I think there's something dodgy about how they work out the "chance to win" percentage muriel_volestrangler Nov 2020 #19
Ok. I'll buy that. But it still gives me great Optimism and Hope. Tommymac Nov 2020 #21
As someone pointed out, PredictIt has put Biden back up at about 65% muriel_volestrangler Nov 2020 #23
I live in Allegheny County PA. Tommymac Nov 2020 #25
I lived in Pittsburgh for a couple of years in the late 90s muriel_volestrangler Nov 2020 #26
Putin happened in 2016. Tommymac Nov 2020 #27
The math works in PA too. Johnny2X2X Nov 2020 #24

Tommymac

(7,263 posts)
6. Me Too
Wed Nov 4, 2020, 06:51 AM
Nov 2020

I spent some time fumbling my way through to create that map to reflect the current data!

And I can say
Man Woman Person camera tv

WooHoo!

(Sorry, been up all night here in Allegheny Co PA. Can't sleep.)


Cha

(295,929 posts)
14. No worries.. It's only about
Wed Nov 4, 2020, 07:02 AM
Nov 2020

1am here on Kauai.. but it's going to be hard to go to sleep tonight.

Tommymac

(7,263 posts)
7. The Nevada Guy on MSNBC said not to worry.
Wed Nov 4, 2020, 06:53 AM
Nov 2020

And he seemed to know his stuff - been doing Nevada elections for a long time.

Can't remember his name - but a native Nevadan.

Rstrstx

(1,393 posts)
10. Ralston?
Wed Nov 4, 2020, 06:56 AM
Nov 2020

He was spot on in 2016 and pretty much all of his scenarios had Biden winning. Going by what he writes he’s looking at the numbers and has to be thinking Biden is going to win NV.

Tommymac

(7,263 posts)
11. Yeah - that guy.
Wed Nov 4, 2020, 06:58 AM
Nov 2020

Rachel interviewed him, I think.

Again - my apologies for my memory, been up all night - a bit groggy.

atse

(42 posts)
4. Nevada
Wed Nov 4, 2020, 06:45 AM
Nov 2020

In Nevada, mail in votes can come in through November 10th! Here's something just now from the 538 blog:

NATHANIEL RAKICH
NOV. 4, 5:26 AM
Yeah, but Nevada is a state where mail-in ballots only had to be postmarked by Tuesday. So I’d expect a not-insignificant blue shift over the next week or so.

atse

(42 posts)
5. Looking better...
Wed Nov 4, 2020, 06:51 AM
Nov 2020

Biden has taken the lead in Wisconsin and is likely to keep it. He's unlikely to lose in Nevada - he's still in the lead and the rest coming in is likely to lean Biden. Biden is coming up fast in Michigan too. The 538 folks seem to think he'll win it.

If you program Biden wins in WI, MI, and NV into that interactive map, that gives Biden exactly 270 for the win! PA, GA, and NC are just possible bonuses at that point.

atse

(42 posts)
16. Different
Wed Nov 4, 2020, 07:05 AM
Nov 2020

You didn't add in Biden victories in NV, WI, and MI. I did. Try it that way. Biden gets to 270, even though GA, NC and PA are still undecided.

Tommymac

(7,263 posts)
18. Right. That map reflects the current AP/NYT Picks.
Wed Nov 4, 2020, 07:08 AM
Nov 2020

The main point I was making was that DonnieCrybaby has only 4 paths to victory, and Joe has 96.

Biden can get to 270 + many ways.

Just hover over the dots in the graph below the map to see them.

atse

(42 posts)
22. 538
Wed Nov 4, 2020, 07:18 AM
Nov 2020

Nate Silver just made the same point on his blog:

Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
If Biden wins AZ, NV, MI and WI that's ballgame. He could lose PA, GA and NC and he'd still have 270.

muriel_volestrangler

(101,155 posts)
19. I think there's something dodgy about how they work out the "chance to win" percentage
Wed Nov 4, 2020, 07:10 AM
Nov 2020

I used it a few days earlier, going to the same scenario but adding states in a different order, and it gave wildly differing results (something like a 96% Biden win, and a 43% Trump win).

It tries to calculate how one result is likely to point to another. If the order of the states in your link shows how you added them, then it was some surefire Biden states followed by surefire Trump ones. You might find doing that the other way round gives a different result.

They do have a caveat that having to calculate scenarios from new can produce dubious results.

muriel_volestrangler

(101,155 posts)
23. As someone pointed out, PredictIt has put Biden back up at about 65%
Wed Nov 4, 2020, 07:19 AM
Nov 2020

So hope is fully justified; it was that 96% figure which looked too far.

I think Biden wins if he gets Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan now - which seems quite reasonable. Pennsylvania and Georgia are possible alternatives, though Georgia seems unlikely to me on the latest figures.

Tommymac

(7,263 posts)
25. I live in Allegheny County PA.
Wed Nov 4, 2020, 07:33 AM
Nov 2020

Joe & Kamala are GOING to win here. Just be patient.

We've driven around the central part of the state (RED RED RED) this past 6 months several times. And the Con's support, while still there, was just not shining out there like it was in 2016. Noticeably subdued.

There were tons of visable Blue cracks in the Red wall of Counties.

Pittsburgh and the Philly suburbs are going to rock DonnieSlapmeAgain's world.

Joe Knows Pennsylvania and has a rocking ground game.


muriel_volestrangler

(101,155 posts)
26. I lived in Pittsburgh for a couple of years in the late 90s
Wed Nov 4, 2020, 07:37 AM
Nov 2020

From there and then, it seemed amazing PA could go for Trump in 2016, but I suppose it was a bit of an island of Dems. I assumed it and Philly could overcome any rural craziness. It was a small picture of the USA as a whole, I suppose.

Tommymac

(7,263 posts)
27. Putin happened in 2016.
Wed Nov 4, 2020, 07:45 AM
Nov 2020

This year we knew better and were not surprised.

We have countered most of the disinformation from that quarter.

We Dems honestly got lazy in 2016 and didn't turn out. No other word for it.

Putin pulled the wool over our collective eyes.



On Edit: And this year most of the counties have the new voting machines that leave a paper trail. Unlike 2016 when ALL the machines were physically unverifiable. No way to do an actual recount - could just run the same numbers again and again and again. Insanity.

Johnny2X2X

(18,745 posts)
24. The math works in PA too.
Wed Nov 4, 2020, 07:20 AM
Nov 2020

Biden is winning absentee bu better than a 3-1 margin and there are 1.5 million left. He can make up 750,000 votes when those are counted.

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