General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWith Current AP/NYT Picks Biden has 96% Chance to Win per 538 Interactive Map
Sorry Link is messy - not sure how to label it instead.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/#NY:0,VT:0,NH:0,MA:0,RI:0,CT:0,NJ:0,DE:0,MD:0,VA:0,IL:0,WA:0,OR:0,CA:0,CO:0,NM:0,DC:0,WV:1,KY:1,IN:1,TN:1,SC:1,AL:1,MS:1,LA:1,AR:1,OK:1,KS:1,MO:1,NE:1,SD:1,ND:1,WY:1,ID:1,UT:1,N1:1,HI:0,MN:0,MT:1,IA:1,OH:1,FL:1,TX:1,N2:0,M2:1,ME:0,M1:0,AZ:0
Cha
(295,929 posts)I spent some time fumbling my way through to create that map to reflect the current data!
And I can say
Man Woman Person camera tv
WooHoo!
(Sorry, been up all night here in Allegheny Co PA. Can't sleep.)
Cha
(295,929 posts)1am here on Kauai.. but it's going to be hard to go to sleep tonight.
Watchfoxheadexplodes
(3,496 posts)CNN says Clark County votes coming in but when
Tommymac
(7,263 posts)And he seemed to know his stuff - been doing Nevada elections for a long time.
Can't remember his name - but a native Nevadan.
He was spot on in 2016 and pretty much all of his scenarios had Biden winning. Going by what he writes hes looking at the numbers and has to be thinking Biden is going to win NV.
Tommymac
(7,263 posts)Rachel interviewed him, I think.
Again - my apologies for my memory, been up all night - a bit groggy.
Rstrstx
(1,393 posts)The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,280 posts)I want to go to bed but I can't with this hanging over my head.
Tommymac
(7,263 posts)In Nevada, mail in votes can come in through November 10th! Here's something just now from the 538 blog:
NATHANIEL RAKICH
NOV. 4, 5:26 AM
Yeah, but Nevada is a state where mail-in ballots only had to be postmarked by Tuesday. So Id expect a not-insignificant blue shift over the next week or so.
Tommymac
(7,263 posts)atse
(42 posts)Biden has taken the lead in Wisconsin and is likely to keep it. He's unlikely to lose in Nevada - he's still in the lead and the rest coming in is likely to lean Biden. Biden is coming up fast in Michigan too. The 538 folks seem to think he'll win it.
If you program Biden wins in WI, MI, and NV into that interactive map, that gives Biden exactly 270 for the win! PA, GA, and NC are just possible bonuses at that point.
Tommymac
(7,263 posts)You didn't add in Biden victories in NV, WI, and MI. I did. Try it that way. Biden gets to 270, even though GA, NC and PA are still undecided.
Tommymac
(7,263 posts)The main point I was making was that DonnieCrybaby has only 4 paths to victory, and Joe has 96.
Biden can get to 270 + many ways.
Just hover over the dots in the graph below the map to see them.
radius777
(3,624 posts)Example:
Tommymac
(7,263 posts)Funny how a 800 year old parable is still relevant.
Nate Silver just made the same point on his blog:
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
If Biden wins AZ, NV, MI and WI that's ballgame. He could lose PA, GA and NC and he'd still have 270.
bdamomma
(63,658 posts)is not over yet. Many more votes to be counted.
muriel_volestrangler
(101,155 posts)I used it a few days earlier, going to the same scenario but adding states in a different order, and it gave wildly differing results (something like a 96% Biden win, and a 43% Trump win).
It tries to calculate how one result is likely to point to another. If the order of the states in your link shows how you added them, then it was some surefire Biden states followed by surefire Trump ones. You might find doing that the other way round gives a different result.
They do have a caveat that having to calculate scenarios from new can produce dubious results.
Tommymac
(7,263 posts)Even feeling a bit Groovy.
muriel_volestrangler
(101,155 posts)So hope is fully justified; it was that 96% figure which looked too far.
I think Biden wins if he gets Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan now - which seems quite reasonable. Pennsylvania and Georgia are possible alternatives, though Georgia seems unlikely to me on the latest figures.
Tommymac
(7,263 posts)Joe & Kamala are GOING to win here. Just be patient.
We've driven around the central part of the state (RED RED RED) this past 6 months several times. And the Con's support, while still there, was just not shining out there like it was in 2016. Noticeably subdued.
There were tons of visable Blue cracks in the Red wall of Counties.
Pittsburgh and the Philly suburbs are going to rock DonnieSlapmeAgain's world.
Joe Knows Pennsylvania and has a rocking ground game.
muriel_volestrangler
(101,155 posts)From there and then, it seemed amazing PA could go for Trump in 2016, but I suppose it was a bit of an island of Dems. I assumed it and Philly could overcome any rural craziness. It was a small picture of the USA as a whole, I suppose.
Tommymac
(7,263 posts)This year we knew better and were not surprised.
We have countered most of the disinformation from that quarter.
We Dems honestly got lazy in 2016 and didn't turn out. No other word for it.
Putin pulled the wool over our collective eyes.
On Edit: And this year most of the counties have the new voting machines that leave a paper trail. Unlike 2016 when ALL the machines were physically unverifiable. No way to do an actual recount - could just run the same numbers again and again and again. Insanity.
Johnny2X2X
(18,745 posts)Biden is winning absentee bu better than a 3-1 margin and there are 1.5 million left. He can make up 750,000 votes when those are counted.