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jmbar2

(4,832 posts)
Mon Nov 16, 2020, 12:57 PM Nov 2020

Calculate your Thanksgiving COVID risk - good tool

https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/?mc_cid=a710463c5f&mc_eid=157a159e3e


What’s the actual risk? This helpful dashboard shows estimated odds that a member of your holiday party will bring the covid-19 virus to dinner. If you run the numbers, there’s a 5% chance that someone at a party of 20 in Maine, near where Antonio lives, will have the virus. But a gathering of just 10 people in the hot spot of Sioux Falls, South Dakota brings a 67% chance. Even with drastically reduced holiday travel this year, Americans will be moving and mingling by the millions, and taking the virus with them. It’s easy to see how Thanksgiving could turn into a nationwide superspreading event that just makes things worse.


Source: MIT Technology Review
https://www.technologyreview.com/

37 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Calculate your Thanksgiving COVID risk - good tool (Original Post) jmbar2 Nov 2020 OP
I find that when I invite 5,000 to Thanksgiving, there's never enough pie... brooklynite Nov 2020 #1
I found some very small turkeys in the store jmbar2 Nov 2020 #3
We always run out of horse divers. n/t zackymilly Nov 2020 #5
hahaha obamanut2012 Nov 2020 #17
Great tool, thanks! Native Nov 2020 #2
Kickin' Faux pas Nov 2020 #4
I'm not in favor of any tool that helps people feel better about gathering for Thanksgiving. Ms. Toad Nov 2020 #6
Please see below. jmbar2 Nov 2020 #10
Holy Crap!! Bayard Nov 2020 #7
I wasn't going to go to thanksgiving at the family, jimfields33 Nov 2020 #8
Responding to Ms Toad above, and you jmbar2 Nov 2020 #9
Then why is it a helpful tool, Ms. Toad Nov 2020 #11
I agree. The problem with this tool is it's a single event model. Pobeka Nov 2020 #27
You must be looking at a different county! imaginary girl Nov 2020 #13
Perhaps your having a large gathering jimfields33 Nov 2020 #18
Not sure how traveling is safer than staying home? imaginary girl Nov 2020 #26
I'm probably not going to go jimfields33 Nov 2020 #29
Sounds smart imaginary girl Nov 2020 #30
Thank you! jimfields33 Nov 2020 #31
Please don't gather for Thanksgiving. Ms. Toad Nov 2020 #14
My father-in-law comes over every day and my wife doesn't maintain social distance. Kaleva Nov 2020 #16
And that's part of why COVID cases are skyrocketing. Ms. Toad Nov 2020 #19
My wife suffers from serious mental health issues Kaleva Nov 2020 #22
Then at least protect yourself by wearing a mask in the home. Ms. Toad Nov 2020 #24
I disinfect high touch items in the home daily Kaleva Nov 2020 #28
Masking is far more important than any of the contact disinfecting things you are doing. Ms. Toad Nov 2020 #34
Paitents in the psych unit do not wear masks Kaleva Nov 2020 #35
Are YOU wearing masks, including at home. Ms. Toad Nov 2020 #36
If you look at old threads in January,.. Kaleva Nov 2020 #33
"Not enough people are dying" - which is tragically true hatrack Nov 2020 #23
Smaller group wildflowergardener Nov 2020 #12
Are those 3 unmasked with others they are not living with? Ms. Toad Nov 2020 #21
Even limiting the number to 10, my risk assessment level is 51% Kaleva Nov 2020 #15
Wow. Ms. Toad Nov 2020 #20
My risk is zero because we'll be staying home and having our own Thanksgiving Luciferous Nov 2020 #25
We're not having a party. sakabatou Nov 2020 #32
Many would be sad to hear I plan to spend the Holidays alone last year. Lady Freedom Returns Nov 2020 #37

jmbar2

(4,832 posts)
3. I found some very small turkeys in the store
Mon Nov 16, 2020, 01:05 PM
Nov 2020

They called them Cornish Game Hens. Having a VERY small thanksgiving, but thankful nevertheless. I'm alive, and Trump is fired.

Ms. Toad

(33,915 posts)
6. I'm not in favor of any tool that helps people feel better about gathering for Thanksgiving.
Mon Nov 16, 2020, 01:23 PM
Nov 2020

I'm sitting her in quarantine because both my spouse and my daughter decided small social gatherings with people not living in our house were just fine. Now both are exposed. My daughter directly for several hours unmasked. My spouse indirectly, but also unmasked.

After all - it's "just" a 17% risk in our county for a gathering of 10. One was exposed in a gathering of 2; the other in a gathering of under 10.

Far better to assume your risk is 100%, since if you hapen to encounter one of those 17 in 100 - you're just as exposed (and put others you later encounter at risk) as if the risk was 100%.

Let's not encourage COVID-roulette.

jimfields33

(15,462 posts)
8. I wasn't going to go to thanksgiving at the family,
Mon Nov 16, 2020, 01:26 PM
Nov 2020

But Indiana when I put in information virtually has minimal to no risk. Florida has more then Indiana. Maybe I am safer to go after all. I am thankful you provided this.

jmbar2

(4,832 posts)
9. Responding to Ms Toad above, and you
Mon Nov 16, 2020, 01:46 PM
Nov 2020

I wouldn't use this as a hall pass to go to Thanksgiving. Your risk might be low, but it's still a risk, especially to others. Hunker down and zoom with someone. It's a small sacrifice for the greater good.

Ms. Toad

(33,915 posts)
11. Then why is it a helpful tool,
Mon Nov 16, 2020, 01:52 PM
Nov 2020

if what you want to encourage (and what we all should be doing) is NOT gathering for Thanksgiving?

I've seen the same tool advertised, using the same caption, by friends who fully intend to gather with others - and who are actually promoting it as a way to evaluate how large a crowd is safe enough.

And - you see how the person you just responded to perceived it.

That's precisely why I said it was NOT a useful tool, since it encourages people to think it might be OK to get together.

Pobeka

(4,999 posts)
27. I agree. The problem with this tool is it's a single event model.
Mon Nov 16, 2020, 03:34 PM
Nov 2020

If you think in terms of your personal risk for this one event is 5%, you'll maybe accept that -- 95% chance of no infections, yah hoo!

Problem is, if there are just 19 other similar gatherings, one of those will be a spreader event. The ripples of infection from that "other" single event will impact your future probability of becoming infected when you have to interact with other people.

And that other event is not going to be the only spreader event, because there will be thousands and thousands rationalizing a 5% risk is acceptable. All that contributes to increasing the infected population, just the opposite of what we want for pretty much every place on the planet right now.

ANYTHING that encourages more gatherings, either as an intended or unintended consequence is a *bad thing* IMHO.

imaginary girl

(856 posts)
13. You must be looking at a different county!
Mon Nov 16, 2020, 02:02 PM
Nov 2020

Risks in Indiana are high, from what I'm seeing. Not sure what county you're looking at, or how small a gathering. Also, did you change the ascertainment bias since the positivity rate is so high (indicates not enough testing)? (5 or 10 are options)

jimfields33

(15,462 posts)
18. Perhaps your having a large gathering
Mon Nov 16, 2020, 02:25 PM
Nov 2020

I mentioned it was safer then Florida. At least on this map. Why not be somewhere with less risk then you are physically right now. Makes zero sense to stay in a place with more risk. That’s all I’m saying.

imaginary girl

(856 posts)
26. Not sure how traveling is safer than staying home?
Mon Nov 16, 2020, 03:26 PM
Nov 2020

I am not attending a Thanksgiving gathering. I was just pointing out that very few places in Indiana could be considered low risk right now.

jimfields33

(15,462 posts)
29. I'm probably not going to go
Mon Nov 16, 2020, 03:42 PM
Nov 2020

I mainly was surprised by the tool provided. It’s next Thursday and I’ve made no travel arrangements. It was a fleeting thought. Not well thought out. Thank you for throwing some sense my way. It’s needed from time to time. I sincerely appreciate it.

Ms. Toad

(33,915 posts)
14. Please don't gather for Thanksgiving.
Mon Nov 16, 2020, 02:09 PM
Nov 2020

Since Wednesday I've been wearing masks in my home, including sleeping in one, because my spouse and daughter have decided that small circles are just fine because they are friends or families.

That tough conversation I had with my spouse and daughter didn't result in any change on their part. They are both unable or unwilling to be safe.

So - on Saturday, my daughter informed me she had been exposed becasue she was spending time unmasked with others who - similarly had their own little social circles who were engaging with each other inside unmasked. On Sunday, my spouse acknowledged that her office (symptomatic for 6 days - whose wife had tested positive) had dropped by the office last Wednesday. She is regularly in his office, and they regularly go to indoor restaurants together.

There are zero counties in Indiana that have a lower risk than the Ohio county in which these two exposures occurred.

Remember - the risk you encounter includes not only the risk of the 10-ish people you are physically present with (the smallest group in the tool), but the risk of all of their social circles as well. My personal risk is near zero. I wear a mask 100% of the time when I am outside of my home or car, except when strictly alone in my office (including when I'm outside). No one enters my office without a mask - I don't leave without one. But my actual risk is pretty close to moving around unmasked with 50 people, since that's about the number my wife and daughter have exposed me to.





Kaleva

(36,146 posts)
16. My father-in-law comes over every day and my wife doesn't maintain social distance.
Mon Nov 16, 2020, 02:17 PM
Nov 2020

Until more people in the county start dying, it's a fight I'm not going to fight for now.

Ms. Toad

(33,915 posts)
19. And that's part of why COVID cases are skyrocketing.
Mon Nov 16, 2020, 02:33 PM
Nov 2020

the unwillingness to behave safely because it's not worth the fight, since not enough people are dying.

Yeah, it's not a fun fight - and it wasn't fun being mocked for wearing a mask in the house - or being told in so many words that they didn't care enough about my health to offend their social circles . . . until 3 days later when my daughter disclosed she had been exposed.

Kaleva

(36,146 posts)
22. My wife suffers from serious mental health issues
Mon Nov 16, 2020, 02:49 PM
Nov 2020

She enjoys the visits with her father and until things get really bad, I'm not going to fight the fight.

Ms. Toad

(33,915 posts)
24. Then at least protect yourself by wearing a mask in the home.
Mon Nov 16, 2020, 03:09 PM
Nov 2020

And pitch a fit to make sure they both wear masks during the visits - or stay outside if they can't tolerate masks. Invest in an air purifier with the finest filter you can afford and insist they run in the room they are visiting in. When it was clear the rest of my house was unwilling to/incapable of behaving, I bought one with a HEPA filter good to .3 microns that refreshes the air 4x per hour in a 200 ft room, which I run in the room I'm in (or in any room my daughter visited for an hour after she wanders in and out). It cost $80 - and my health and the health of others is worth it.

As to mental health, the same is true in my family. My spouse has mild cognitive impairment, and my daughter has very serious physical health issues - AND - depression that is aggravated by winter. I had the tough conversation with them last week - and my daughter is currently sleeping in a tent on the deck in 30-50 degree weather because I will not permit her homeless friend who believes COVID is all a hoax/conspiracy theory in the house (other than access to the bathroom from directly outside). She has a room she can stay in - but she is unwilling to stay inside while her buddy is staying outside. The buddy's foster family is the source of her exposure - since none of them wear masks when they are together (even though they don't all live together)

51% risk that someone present has COVID in a group of 10 IS really bad. Remember that death is not the only serious consequence of COVID.

My daughter and spouse's exposure was in a county that has a 17% risk in a group of 10.

Kaleva

(36,146 posts)
28. I disinfect high touch items in the home daily
Mon Nov 16, 2020, 03:39 PM
Nov 2020

I run a Rainbow air purifier upstairs and downstairs most every day for a period of time

I have installed a UV light in the return duct.

I use Filtrete air filters with a rating of at least 1800

Canned and boxed goods that doesn't require refrigeration are kept down in the basement for a few days before I put them away. Items that require refrigeration are kept in the fridge in the basement for a few days before I move them to the kitchen fridge.

I try to shop when the stores first open up at 8 am.

When out and about, I use hand sanitizer that i keep in the vehicle when I return to the vehicle and I always wear a mask.

We won't be having Thanksgiving dinner even though 2 adult children, their spouses and 7 grandchildren live within walking distance of us.

My wife gets tested for COVID19 every other week a few days before her scheduled outpatient ECT.

Doing what I can to keep my wife at home is safer then her being in the psych unit where as many as two dozen other patients come and go.





Ms. Toad

(33,915 posts)
34. Masking is far more important than any of the contact disinfecting things you are doing.
Mon Nov 16, 2020, 04:06 PM
Nov 2020

And so far you haven't said anything about masking. The chance of infection from contact is slim to none. It's not zero - so it is good to be careful. But the virus is transmitted primarily via droplets and aerosolized matter.

If the Rainbow purifier is one of the water kinds (I don't know if they make other kinds - that's all that came up), it doesn't kill or trap germs. You need a HEPA filter rated to .3 or (even better) .1 microns - combined with a purifier that completely refreshes the room a few times an hour.

Filtrete air filters work, but probably don't circulate frequently enough to be effective at fighting viruses.

Sounds like life was challenging enough, without COVID 19 coming along.

Kaleva

(36,146 posts)
35. Paitents in the psych unit do not wear masks
Mon Nov 16, 2020, 04:29 PM
Nov 2020

There can be as many as 25 patients on the 5th floor. None who wear masks. Even though all are tested before admission, we know that it can be up to 14 days before a someone tests positive after contact with another infected person.

My wife is safer at home then in the hospital.

Your comment:

"If the Rainbow purifier is one of the water kinds (I don't know if they make other kinds - that's all that came up), it doesn't kill or trap germs. You need a HEPA filter rated to .3 or (even better) .1 microns - combined with a purifier that completely refreshes the room a few times an hour."

Unless the room you have your filter in is in a room that's sealed off, and kept sealed off, from the rest of the house, it isn't changing the air or filtering it as well you you think.

I run the the air cleaner not to kill viruses or germs but to clean the air of dust and such. The UV light in the return duct work kills the viruses and the air filter is rated at doing a good job of capturing airborne viruses.

Ms. Toad

(33,915 posts)
36. Are YOU wearing masks, including at home.
Mon Nov 16, 2020, 05:28 PM
Nov 2020

A significant part of what I've been saying is that if your wife can't/won't wear masks - and your father-in-law won't either that you need to wear masks when you are around them to protect yourself and those you come in contact with after being around your wife and your father-in-law. Not only when you're out, but also when you're home.

The spaces my daughter and spouse spend any time in that I have to share with them are closed. One is around 50 sq ft, the other around 100 sq feet. The purifier is rated for 200 sq ft. The 50 sq ft area is the bathroom, and after she is in it unmasked (for a shower) the purifier is run for at least an hour. She uses a separate half-bath for all other bathroom activities. The other space is the bedroom I share with my wife - a bit over 100 sq ft. Currently I'm sleeping with double masks, the purifier runs at least an hour before I enter the bedroom, and continuously overnight.

Time spent in the rest of the house by my daughter is minimal - but I still run the purifier anyplace she has spent time (e.g. the kitchen when she grabs coffee or stuff out of the fridge). My spouse spends most of her time in a separate room separated from where I spend my time by about 50'.

Not perfect, but a lot more protection than sharing space unmasked relying on only the air filter.

There are issues with ozone for with at least some UV purifiers, which is why I went for HEPA filter. Those generally have better reviews for removing the virus from the air without creating additional problems. My concern with relying on an HVAC for filtration is how frequently it exchanges the air. Stand-alone purifiers circulate air much more quickly - so they do a better job of capturing the virus in real time - as opposed to preparing it to be relatively virus free in a day or so (the whole house system).

Kaleva

(36,146 posts)
33. If you look at old threads in January,..
Mon Nov 16, 2020, 03:51 PM
Nov 2020

you''ll see that I was one of those who said we need to take this seriously. I stocked up on hand sanitizer and bought several boxes of surgical masks, when they were $10 for a box of 50. The hand sanitizer cost me $8 for 30 ounce bottle (I bought 4) and the 8 ounce bottles were on sale for .50 cents each ( I bought 6) at the local Dollar General.

hatrack

(59,439 posts)
23. "Not enough people are dying" - which is tragically true
Mon Nov 16, 2020, 02:52 PM
Nov 2020

Until somewhere around 30 million people in this country have lost a first-degree relative, nothing is going to change.

The Trumpers are going to huff and puff and fill the air with fomites, and the OANN and Newsmax "reporters" are going to keep right on lying, and the Republicans are going to keep on pretending that if they just ignore the problem it will go away.

At the rate the infection is spreading, and with Thanksgiving ten days away, I'm guessing 500,000 deaths by Inauguration, and even that won't be enough for the marching morons.

wildflowergardener

(908 posts)
12. Smaller group
Mon Nov 16, 2020, 02:00 PM
Nov 2020

Good tool but I wish it had the ability to show your risk if you are in a smaller group. I’m at 28% if I was to go to a party of 10, but there are just going to be three in my family who I’m already in frequent contact with. If they allowed that comparison maybe it would convince people to stick with smaller groups but then the type of people who need to hear that probably aren’t the ones who will listen. Still I’d like to know how much my risk goes down by limiting the number to just 3.

Ms. Toad

(33,915 posts)
21. Are those 3 unmasked with others they are not living with?
Mon Nov 16, 2020, 02:41 PM
Nov 2020

And yes, that includes while eating (which my spouse seems to think makes her immune).

Count up how many people they engage with unmasked, then count up how many each of those secondary contacts engage with, and that will give you a truer picture of how many you are **really** planning to party with.

https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/static/responsible/signs/ohio-bubble-infographic.pdf

In Maine, as in other states, case investigators are seeing a new and related pattern: People who are infected list more close contacts than they did earlier, making the work of contact tracers more time-consuming and complicated. From March through September, the average number of contacts identified in Maine coronavirus investigations was 3.5. In October, that rose to 5.8.

“We’ve all gotten used to our bubbles, but I don’t think we’ve really asked whether someone who’s in our bubble is also in another person’s bubble,” Shah said. “People’s bubbles are getting big enough to burst.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/11/12/covid-social-gatherings/

Ms. Toad

(33,915 posts)
20. Wow.
Mon Nov 16, 2020, 02:35 PM
Nov 2020

And not enough people are dying in your county for you to fight for better behavior?

The risk level in my county is 17%, and both my daughter and spouse were exposed in gatherings of fewer than 10.

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