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Fri Dec 11, 2020, 04:31 PM

Forecasts of New and Total Deaths from Covid-19.

This week, CDC received forecasts of COVID-19 deaths over the next 4 weeks from 40 modeling groups that were included in the ensemble forecasts. Of the 40 groups, 37 provided forecasts for both new and total deaths, two groups forecasted total deaths only, and one forecasted new deaths only.

This week’s national ensemble forecast predicts that the number of newly reported COVID-19 deaths will likely increase over the next 4 weeks, with 12,600 to 23,400 new deaths likely to be reported in the week ending January 2, 2021. The national ensemble predicts that a total of 332,000 to 362,000 COVID-19 deaths will be reported by this date.

The state- and territory-level ensemble forecasts predict that over the next 4 weeks, the number of newly reported deaths per week will likely increase in 16 jurisdictions and decrease in 2 jurisdictions, which are indicated in the forecast plots below. Trends in numbers of future reported deaths are uncertain or predicted to remain stable in the other states and territories.


Detailed info at link. It's going to be a long, hard winter. Everyone mask up and stay safe.

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