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TwilightZone

(25,342 posts)
1. Interesting. Rasmussen Reports, which everyone thinks has a huge R bias...
Thu Mar 25, 2021, 12:14 PM
Mar 2021

was the third most accurate.

Apparently, they've cleaned up their act a bit, though their current numbers for Biden seem pretty out of whack.

uponit7771

(90,225 posts)
4. I'm not reading that, they had 68% of their polling accuracy which is horrible. No info outlet
Thu Mar 25, 2021, 12:29 PM
Mar 2021

... should ever post their poll about anything and the same goes from the rest of them that were out of the 90% range.

Few other developed country puts up with polling this far off for this far long of time tilted towards one party.

Tetrachloride

(7,721 posts)
3. Distrust in pollsters, imho, contributed to errors.
Thu Mar 25, 2021, 12:26 PM
Mar 2021

As for myself and my past roommate, we both agreed that we don't discuss stuff with strangers.

I have read stories alleging that a great many people deliberately lied to pollsters.

Rasmussen has a high accuracy in the 4th column, but the 2nd column is pretty mediocre.

I contend that 538 should release 2 sets of findings: with and without suspect pollsters.

uponit7771

(90,225 posts)
5. +1, the second column is most important IMHO. They can be accurate among the polls they got
Thu Mar 25, 2021, 12:31 PM
Mar 2021

... right but they got less than 70% of their polling correct with is horrid and means no one should ever post their polls.

FBaggins

(26,693 posts)
8. Hard to agree that that's the most important column
Thu Mar 25, 2021, 12:39 PM
Mar 2021

Polling firm 1 says that BillyBob will win by 7%
Polling firm 2 says that SallyMae will win by .5%
Actual results - BillyBob wins by .5%

Polling firm 1 is not the more accurate pollster just because they called the winner.

LonePirate

(13,386 posts)
6. Atlas and Trafalgar both included large Repub samples in their polls.
Thu Mar 25, 2021, 12:32 PM
Mar 2021

They missed correct calls on a lot of races; but their margins were closer than other polls because they were closer in their estimates of Republican turnout, which was sky high as they showed up in record numbers to vote for their messiah.

Quixote1818

(28,903 posts)
7. Yes, I think Trump was an anomaly. He brought out a lot of racist people who don't normally vote
Thu Mar 25, 2021, 12:37 PM
Mar 2021

I think a lot of those people will hopefully not show up again if the GOP brings in a more mainstream candidate who appeals to the middle.

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