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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsRussian forces are massing on Ukraine's border
For an army given to masking its moves, surely the worst way to disguise a potential imminent invasion of a country is by overtly preparing for it. Russia's signals are obvious. Relentless social media videos show armored convoys moving towards the general border area. These led to open-source intelligence sleuths @CITeam_en spotting a congregation of likely hundreds of vehicles not far from the Russian city of Voronezh. That is still over 100 miles from Ukraine, but it is a sizeable buildup that was captured on satellite images from the Maxar technology group.
The White House said this week that Russia now has more troops near the Ukraine border than any time since 2014 -- when the peninsula of Crimea was annexed. Further south, military intelligence reports have assessed that some 4,000 heavily armed Russian forces had been seen moving in Crimea, a US defense official told CNN.
The White House has said it is "increasingly concerned by recent escalating Russian aggressions in eastern Ukraine" and US officials have also hinted they might send warships to the Black Sea, a signal of increased involvement, even though American aircraft have regularly been monitoring that area. US President Biden has made it clear he'll offer "unwavering support" to Kiev. Washington's mindset is irrevocably hardened to the idea that Russia is a threat.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/09/europe/russian-forces-ukraine-border-analysis-intl/index.html
Eliot Rosewater
(31,097 posts)him and his military away.
Fuck this shit
I feel the same way about American insurrectionist white supremacists. NO MORE
Rustyeye77
(2,736 posts)but what happens if this escalates to real war ?
A lot of people HERE will blame the US.
Eliot Rosewater
(31,097 posts)who I usually am.
I am very peace loving, liberal, etc.
But I have had it with Putin and white supremacists and think they understand only ONE thing. And we both know what that is.
Rustyeye77
(2,736 posts)I hope not.
Its always a tough decision but Putin only knows one thing.
NutmegYankee
(16,178 posts)I'm not keen on wars for territory or resources, but defending an ally from the next Hitler is a hill worth fighting on.
former9thward
(31,805 posts)And for good reason -- it is not an ally. It is for its own interests and nothing more.
How would you defend Ukraine? A nuclear war? A land war? No one has beaten Russia in a land war.
bluestarone
(16,722 posts)As for the Ukraine? I say do whatever it takes! whatever!
former9thward
(31,805 posts)The Taliban control more territory now than they did in 2001. If you remember when Russia was there the U.S. intervened on the side of the Mujahideen and gave them ground to air missiles and other arms.
Besides what I was refering to was land invasions onto Russian territory. No one has been sucessful. And Russia considers Ukraine historical Russian territory. And for most of modern hostory (last 1000 years) the area of Ukriane has been part of Russia.
"Do whatever it takes" So if that means 200 million U.S. dead in a nuclear war then so be it. OK, know where you are coming from....
bluestarone
(16,722 posts)We could start by supporting the Ukraine with Weapons that really would help! THEN it's Russia's move IF they want full scale then that's it! (by THEIR CHOICE)
former9thward
(31,805 posts)They asked for them.
bluestarone
(16,722 posts)I call that a BIG MISTAKE. BUT this is a different time. WE just cannot let this murderer continue with his ways. WE must do something. I strongly feel that WE, with the help of NATO will stop him. IF the Ukraine gets the help they need,This CRAZY putin will be stopped! That's what America is about! Sometimes you gotta do what you gotta do. Even with knowing the possible end game!
EndlessWire
(6,377 posts)in the modern world. Russia can't just come in and say, historically it was ours, and take it.
We should protect Ukraine on principle alone. It is a sovereign country that needs help. We do not want it. Ukrainians want it.
Russia is going to be looking very bad on the world stage. But, it got away with taking Crimea, and sanctions aren't enough, apparently. The Creature Who Should Not Be Mentioned would have allowed it. We have to say "no," and the EU is also on our side. Russia should take the hint and go home.
Putin, who recently gave himself permission to stay in power, better be careful. Russians are also wishing he would drop dead, and it could be that they will take action on their own against him.
So, start a war, Putin the Terrible. You might find your world altered considerably. "People everywhere just want to be free."
former9thward
(31,805 posts)They are too busy signing gas deals with Russia.
NutmegYankee
(16,178 posts)former9thward
(31,805 posts)Most of those have been outside historical Russian territory. Ukraine is historical Russian territory.
rockfordfile
(8,682 posts)tritsofme
(17,325 posts)Thankfully cooler heads will prevail.
Eliot Rosewater
(31,097 posts)tritsofme
(17,325 posts)In 1956, we made the calculation that Hungary wasnt. It would be a difficult decision, but I cant imagine even an invasion and occupation would elicit a direct Western military response.
Eliot Rosewater
(31,097 posts)Happy Hoosier
(7,081 posts)I dont want war either. I also dont want a world where Putin rebuilds the Soviet Empire. And Putin doesnt want war either. He will push and tale until he is stopped.
tritsofme
(17,325 posts)But thank goodness these questions are now at the feet of Joe Biden, instead of that former guy!
Happy Hoosier
(7,081 posts)NutmegYankee
(16,178 posts)It didnt work out either.
Celerity
(42,667 posts)to not trigger a nuclear war whilst you are at it?
Russia, military wise, is not some tin pot shithole whom the US can just roll up in a month or two.
NutmegYankee
(16,178 posts)They have a lot to lose in that scenario versus being repulsed.
Celerity
(42,667 posts)As for the nukes, no one can predict with nearly enough certainty what could happen.
This entire line of thinking is madness.
NutmegYankee
(16,178 posts)Even if we just equipped the Ukrainian ground and air forces and allowed them to use them. And we have systems specially designed to turn Russian armor into bonfires.
Russia would probably back down if they took high materiel losses since an unsupported infantry fight can be more easily repelled by the defender. I doubt they would choose suicide for their entire population by starting a Nuclear war over some destroyed tanks and APCs when there is no risk of invasion against them.
Celerity
(42,667 posts)10's of thousands at a minimum, 100's of thousands, maybe a million plus if it sustained, and potentially billions if at some point it does go nuclear. Once you enter directly into a fog of war environment with the word's largest nuclear stockpile nation (Russia has a few hundred more warheads than the US does as of 2019), the spectre of a nuclear exchange exponentially increases.
This is not like sending troops into Afghanistan (and look how that has turned out) or having NATO bomb Libya back to the stone age.
You are already using words like 'probably', which should be terrifying on its own.
NutmegYankee
(16,178 posts)Ideally I'd like to see the Ukrainian troops armed with western tech and doing the fighting, but how many other nations could fall if we do nothing?
I wouldn't take much stock in the number of warheads, if either side uses just a fraction of the total the world won't have to be concerned about global warming for years (possibly decades) and it would likely end modern civilization worldwide. When you factor that in, a few hundred extra warheads is meaningless. Everyone knows that no one wins a nuclear exchange.
Celerity
(42,667 posts)sorry to disappoint
Are you even of an age where you have skin in the game (ie potentially have to serve)?
NutmegYankee
(16,178 posts)But we can pump arms into the Ukraine. As for serving, I'm not sure what the cutoff age is.
Klaralven
(7,510 posts)dem4decades
(11,244 posts)everyonematters
(3,430 posts)In any event, Bidnen has some tough decisions ahead.
bluedigger
(17,077 posts)While Trump was in power, Putin could set back and let him do all the damage internally. Now he has to apply external pressure to damage American power and prestige. Also, he can predict a rational response from Biden, whereas Trump was a wild card.
Karadeniz
(22,283 posts)Now, before Ukraine loses more land.
bluestarone
(16,722 posts)Some weapons to fight Russia with. Russia is just like Al Qaeda in my eyes!
former9thward
(31,805 posts)NATO does not act outside of its membership.
EndlessWire
(6,377 posts)Anyway, the EU has already declared their position. So, the NATO member thing is probably moot.
Rustyeye77
(2,736 posts)If you want to escalate by sending troops , no problem
But then if it turns into serious war, you cant backpedal .
So... do we stand up against a murderous psycho or be wimps ?
sarisataka
(18,220 posts)30 September 1938.
EndlessWire
(6,377 posts)It'll save us from having to make a much larger stand when Putin goes after other countries, like Estonia, etc.
I live on the WC. I'll be blown away when China or NK decide to enter and attack the western side. But, still I say, stick up for Ukraine. If we don't, we'll be sorry later.
At least we have confidence in Joe and Kamala. Putin failed to keep The Jerk in power. And, apparently he thinks that it doesn't matter. Letting him take Crimea was a big mistake.
Maybe we could help Ukraine build a wall. The whole world sectioned off with fences...sigh...
Rustyeye77
(2,736 posts)until the first shot and then the backpedal away from their earlier position.
EndlessWire
(6,377 posts)First off, the military will do what it is instructed to do. They will not back off.
Second, I wouldn't expect the Repubs to support the endeavor, as they are subs to Putin. And, if Biden ordered it, or asked them to order it, they will automatically say "no." And, Manchin will automatically stand in line with the Repubs.
But, the average person on the street here can recognize that we can't let Ukraine fall to Russia. We can't have Putin in charge of the whole world. One way or another, as much as we might hate it, we will be in the suck, anyway. Sooner or later, Putin will be coming for US.
You can't stick your head in the sand. And, I believe that people can understand the simple logic. Your "check engine" light comes on, you better plan to visit your mechanic. Well, the world's check engine light is on. Maybe we will get out of a nuke war; but someone has to tell Putin "no."
NutmegYankee
(16,178 posts)If the Russians want to throw a party, I insist they be the barbecue.
Oneironaut
(5,462 posts)Ukraine probably wouldnt be able to hold off Russia, but, lets help them roast a few of them if they do invade.
EX500rider
(10,532 posts)The Ukrainian ground forces have 170,000 active-duty troops versus 350,000 for Russia (and over 500,000 in the U.S.). Since 2014 Ukraine has reorganized and upgraded its ground forces and currently has as many combat ready brigades as Russia. Ukraine also has more reserve troops, who are better trained and dedicated than their Russian equivalents. In other words, Ukraine is not exactly helpless against a Russian invasion but most of the fighting would take place in Ukraine and civilian casualties would mostly be Ukrainian, as would the property damage. If the Russians did not sense a quick victory, they would probably propose peace and Ukraine would accept. As much as Ukrainians would like to humiliate their ancient Russian oppressors militarily, practical considerations take precedence.
https://strategypage.com/qnd/russia/articles/20210401.aspx
Plus the Ukrainians defending their own country would most likely fight much harder then the Russian conscripts who probably wouldn't want to be there.
Oneironaut
(5,462 posts)sarisataka
(18,220 posts)What are the logistics and maintenance units doing?