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left-of-center2012

(34,195 posts)
Fri Apr 9, 2021, 08:45 PM Apr 2021

Russian forces are massing on Ukraine's border

For an army given to masking its moves, surely the worst way to disguise a potential imminent invasion of a country is by overtly preparing for it. Russia's signals are obvious. Relentless social media videos show armored convoys moving towards the general border area. These led to open-source intelligence sleuths @CITeam_en spotting a congregation of likely hundreds of vehicles not far from the Russian city of Voronezh. That is still over 100 miles from Ukraine, but it is a sizeable buildup that was captured on satellite images from the Maxar technology group.

The White House said this week that Russia now has more troops near the Ukraine border than any time since 2014 -- when the peninsula of Crimea was annexed. Further south, military intelligence reports have assessed that some 4,000 heavily armed Russian forces had been seen moving in Crimea, a US defense official told CNN.

The White House has said it is "increasingly concerned by recent escalating Russian aggressions in eastern Ukraine" and US officials have also hinted they might send warships to the Black Sea, a signal of increased involvement, even though American aircraft have regularly been monitoring that area. US President Biden has made it clear he'll offer "unwavering support" to Kiev. Washington's mindset is irrevocably hardened to the idea that Russia is a threat.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/09/europe/russian-forces-ukraine-border-analysis-intl/index.html

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Russian forces are massing on Ukraine's border (Original Post) left-of-center2012 Apr 2021 OP
Tired of fucking with this murderous psycho, I say call his bluff and if necessary blow Eliot Rosewater Apr 2021 #1
I agree.. Rustyeye77 Apr 2021 #6
Yep...and what I said here is actually irresponsible and not liberal and not Eliot Rosewater Apr 2021 #8
Does Liberal mean never use military against military aggression ? Rustyeye77 Apr 2021 #11
Liberal does not mean pacifist. NutmegYankee Apr 2021 #21
Ukraine is not a member of NATO. former9thward Apr 2021 #33
I don't think they did so good in Afganistan. bluestarone Apr 2021 #34
And we have done even worse there. former9thward Apr 2021 #38
And i know where you're coming from! bluestarone Apr 2021 #40
How come we did not supply Ukraine with weapons when the Russians invaded Crimea? former9thward Apr 2021 #41
WE should have! (i won't argue that point!) bluestarone Apr 2021 #42
That excuse will not fly EndlessWire Apr 2021 #46
The EU will do absolutely nothing. former9thward Apr 2021 #53
Only if you discount the Polish-Soviet War, WWI, First Chechen War, Crimean War, and Afghanistan. nt NutmegYankee Apr 2021 #37
I don't discount any of those. former9thward Apr 2021 #39
I agree rockfordfile Apr 2021 #32
My preference is to not have a World War III tritsofme Apr 2021 #7
What if he invades? Eliot Rosewater Apr 2021 #9
Is Ukraine worth nuclear bombs raining down on American cities? tritsofme Apr 2021 #12
You're not wrong. Eliot Rosewater Apr 2021 #13
Where do you draw the line? Happy Hoosier Apr 2021 #15
That is above my pay grade. tritsofme Apr 2021 #24
Ain't that the truth!!!!! NT Happy Hoosier Apr 2021 #26
Britain made a similar choice in 1938. NutmegYankee Apr 2021 #17
Blow Russia's entire forces away how exactly? And how do you propose Celerity Apr 2021 #14
Do you really think Russia is going sling nukes if we fight them in the Ukraine. NutmegYankee Apr 2021 #20
Do tell how we blow Russia's entire forces away, as that was is first part of my question. Celerity Apr 2021 #22
I think we could deploy our anti-tank weapons in the Ukraine. NutmegYankee Apr 2021 #23
If we go into direct full out kinetic war with Russia it is going to be a shitshow that kills Celerity Apr 2021 #27
History teaches us what happens if you don't take a stand. NutmegYankee Apr 2021 #28
The US isn't going into direct kinetic warfare with Russia, despite all the posturing on this thread Celerity Apr 2021 #29
I don't think we'd go against Russia head to head either. NutmegYankee Apr 2021 #30
But I do say no more than ten to twenty million killed, tops. Uh, depending on the breaks. Klaralven Apr 2021 #25
Why now and not under Trump? I don't get it. dem4decades Apr 2021 #2
Maybe he was expecting Trump to get reelected. everyonematters Apr 2021 #4
Trump was an ally, and Biden isn't. bluedigger Apr 2021 #45
I hope we learned from Putin's earlier behavior in that area. NATO should probably send troops Karadeniz Apr 2021 #3
+1 -K&R onetexan Apr 2021 #5
Start by providing the Ukraine with bluestarone Apr 2021 #36
Ukraine is not a member of NATO. former9thward Apr 2021 #43
Easy to make them a member. EndlessWire Apr 2021 #48
I want to hear from more people here. Rustyeye77 Apr 2021 #10
Munich sarisataka Apr 2021 #16
We make a stand. EndlessWire Apr 2021 #49
The trouble is a lot of people are all gun-ho Rustyeye77 Apr 2021 #51
Well EndlessWire Apr 2021 #52
We need to ship thousands of Javelins into the Ukraine. NutmegYankee Apr 2021 #18
Yup - Javelins, AA, missiles, artillery, stealth fighters / bombers, a few M1A1s as a gift. Oneironaut Apr 2021 #35
"Ukraine probably wouldn't be able to hold off Russia" I am not so sure about that: EX500rider Apr 2021 #44
Good info! Oneironaut Apr 2021 #47
I don't care about the combat units sarisataka Apr 2021 #19
Where are their tank units? n/t EndlessWire Apr 2021 #50
Kick Rustyeye77 Apr 2021 #31

Eliot Rosewater

(31,097 posts)
1. Tired of fucking with this murderous psycho, I say call his bluff and if necessary blow
Fri Apr 9, 2021, 08:46 PM
Apr 2021

him and his military away.

Fuck this shit

I feel the same way about American insurrectionist white supremacists. NO MORE

Eliot Rosewater

(31,097 posts)
8. Yep...and what I said here is actually irresponsible and not liberal and not
Fri Apr 9, 2021, 09:07 PM
Apr 2021

who I usually am.

I am very peace loving, liberal, etc.

But I have had it with Putin and white supremacists and think they understand only ONE thing. And we both know what that is.

 

Rustyeye77

(2,736 posts)
11. Does Liberal mean never use military against military aggression ?
Fri Apr 9, 2021, 09:15 PM
Apr 2021

I hope not.

It’s always a tough decision but Putin only knows one thing.

NutmegYankee

(16,178 posts)
21. Liberal does not mean pacifist.
Fri Apr 9, 2021, 10:07 PM
Apr 2021

I'm not keen on wars for territory or resources, but defending an ally from the next Hitler is a hill worth fighting on.

former9thward

(31,805 posts)
33. Ukraine is not a member of NATO.
Sat Apr 10, 2021, 09:45 AM
Apr 2021

And for good reason -- it is not an ally. It is for its own interests and nothing more.

How would you defend Ukraine? A nuclear war? A land war? No one has beaten Russia in a land war.

bluestarone

(16,722 posts)
34. I don't think they did so good in Afganistan.
Sat Apr 10, 2021, 09:53 AM
Apr 2021

As for the Ukraine? I say do whatever it takes! whatever!

former9thward

(31,805 posts)
38. And we have done even worse there.
Sat Apr 10, 2021, 10:02 AM
Apr 2021

The Taliban control more territory now than they did in 2001. If you remember when Russia was there the U.S. intervened on the side of the Mujahideen and gave them ground to air missiles and other arms.

Besides what I was refering to was land invasions onto Russian territory. No one has been sucessful. And Russia considers Ukraine historical Russian territory. And for most of modern hostory (last 1000 years) the area of Ukriane has been part of Russia.

"Do whatever it takes" So if that means 200 million U.S. dead in a nuclear war then so be it. OK, know where you are coming from....

bluestarone

(16,722 posts)
40. And i know where you're coming from!
Sat Apr 10, 2021, 10:06 AM
Apr 2021

We could start by supporting the Ukraine with Weapons that really would help! THEN it's Russia's move IF they want full scale then that's it! (by THEIR CHOICE)

bluestarone

(16,722 posts)
42. WE should have! (i won't argue that point!)
Sat Apr 10, 2021, 10:17 AM
Apr 2021

I call that a BIG MISTAKE. BUT this is a different time. WE just cannot let this murderer continue with his ways. WE must do something. I strongly feel that WE, with the help of NATO will stop him. IF the Ukraine gets the help they need,This CRAZY putin will be stopped! That's what America is about! Sometimes you gotta do what you gotta do. Even with knowing the possible end game!

EndlessWire

(6,377 posts)
46. That excuse will not fly
Sat Apr 10, 2021, 01:24 PM
Apr 2021

in the modern world. Russia can't just come in and say, historically it was ours, and take it.

We should protect Ukraine on principle alone. It is a sovereign country that needs help. We do not want it. Ukrainians want it.

Russia is going to be looking very bad on the world stage. But, it got away with taking Crimea, and sanctions aren't enough, apparently. The Creature Who Should Not Be Mentioned would have allowed it. We have to say "no," and the EU is also on our side. Russia should take the hint and go home.

Putin, who recently gave himself permission to stay in power, better be careful. Russians are also wishing he would drop dead, and it could be that they will take action on their own against him.

So, start a war, Putin the Terrible. You might find your world altered considerably. "People everywhere just want to be free."

former9thward

(31,805 posts)
39. I don't discount any of those.
Sat Apr 10, 2021, 10:04 AM
Apr 2021

Most of those have been outside historical Russian territory. Ukraine is historical Russian territory.

tritsofme

(17,325 posts)
12. Is Ukraine worth nuclear bombs raining down on American cities?
Fri Apr 9, 2021, 09:16 PM
Apr 2021

In 1956, we made the calculation that Hungary wasn’t. It would be a difficult decision, but I can’t imagine even an invasion and occupation would elicit a direct Western military response.

Happy Hoosier

(7,081 posts)
15. Where do you draw the line?
Fri Apr 9, 2021, 09:43 PM
Apr 2021

I don‘t want war either. I also don‘t want a world where Putin rebuilds the Soviet Empire. And Putin doesn‘t want war either. He will push and tale until he is stopped.

tritsofme

(17,325 posts)
24. That is above my pay grade.
Fri Apr 9, 2021, 10:22 PM
Apr 2021

But thank goodness these questions are now at the feet of Joe Biden, instead of that former guy!

Celerity

(42,667 posts)
14. Blow Russia's entire forces away how exactly? And how do you propose
Fri Apr 9, 2021, 09:37 PM
Apr 2021

to not trigger a nuclear war whilst you are at it?

Russia, military wise, is not some tin pot shithole whom the US can just roll up in a month or two.

NutmegYankee

(16,178 posts)
20. Do you really think Russia is going sling nukes if we fight them in the Ukraine.
Fri Apr 9, 2021, 09:58 PM
Apr 2021

They have a lot to lose in that scenario versus being repulsed.

Celerity

(42,667 posts)
22. Do tell how we blow Russia's entire forces away, as that was is first part of my question.
Fri Apr 9, 2021, 10:09 PM
Apr 2021

As for the nukes, no one can predict with nearly enough certainty what could happen.

This entire line of thinking is madness.


NutmegYankee

(16,178 posts)
23. I think we could deploy our anti-tank weapons in the Ukraine.
Fri Apr 9, 2021, 10:16 PM
Apr 2021

Even if we just equipped the Ukrainian ground and air forces and allowed them to use them. And we have systems specially designed to turn Russian armor into bonfires.

Russia would probably back down if they took high materiel losses since an unsupported infantry fight can be more easily repelled by the defender. I doubt they would choose suicide for their entire population by starting a Nuclear war over some destroyed tanks and APCs when there is no risk of invasion against them.

Celerity

(42,667 posts)
27. If we go into direct full out kinetic war with Russia it is going to be a shitshow that kills
Fri Apr 9, 2021, 10:55 PM
Apr 2021

10's of thousands at a minimum, 100's of thousands, maybe a million plus if it sustained, and potentially billions if at some point it does go nuclear. Once you enter directly into a fog of war environment with the word's largest nuclear stockpile nation (Russia has a few hundred more warheads than the US does as of 2019), the spectre of a nuclear exchange exponentially increases.

This is not like sending troops into Afghanistan (and look how that has turned out) or having NATO bomb Libya back to the stone age.

You are already using words like 'probably', which should be terrifying on its own.



NutmegYankee

(16,178 posts)
28. History teaches us what happens if you don't take a stand.
Fri Apr 9, 2021, 11:06 PM
Apr 2021

Ideally I'd like to see the Ukrainian troops armed with western tech and doing the fighting, but how many other nations could fall if we do nothing?

I wouldn't take much stock in the number of warheads, if either side uses just a fraction of the total the world won't have to be concerned about global warming for years (possibly decades) and it would likely end modern civilization worldwide. When you factor that in, a few hundred extra warheads is meaningless. Everyone knows that no one wins a nuclear exchange.

Celerity

(42,667 posts)
29. The US isn't going into direct kinetic warfare with Russia, despite all the posturing on this thread
Fri Apr 9, 2021, 11:12 PM
Apr 2021

sorry to disappoint

Are you even of an age where you have skin in the game (ie potentially have to serve)?

NutmegYankee

(16,178 posts)
30. I don't think we'd go against Russia head to head either.
Fri Apr 9, 2021, 11:27 PM
Apr 2021

But we can pump arms into the Ukraine. As for serving, I'm not sure what the cutoff age is.

bluedigger

(17,077 posts)
45. Trump was an ally, and Biden isn't.
Sat Apr 10, 2021, 11:03 AM
Apr 2021

While Trump was in power, Putin could set back and let him do all the damage internally. Now he has to apply external pressure to damage American power and prestige. Also, he can predict a rational response from Biden, whereas Trump was a wild card.

Karadeniz

(22,283 posts)
3. I hope we learned from Putin's earlier behavior in that area. NATO should probably send troops
Fri Apr 9, 2021, 08:50 PM
Apr 2021

Now, before Ukraine loses more land.

bluestarone

(16,722 posts)
36. Start by providing the Ukraine with
Sat Apr 10, 2021, 09:57 AM
Apr 2021

Some weapons to fight Russia with. Russia is just like Al Qaeda in my eyes!

EndlessWire

(6,377 posts)
48. Easy to make them a member.
Sat Apr 10, 2021, 01:35 PM
Apr 2021

Anyway, the EU has already declared their position. So, the NATO member thing is probably moot.

 

Rustyeye77

(2,736 posts)
10. I want to hear from more people here.
Fri Apr 9, 2021, 09:10 PM
Apr 2021

If you want to escalate by sending troops , no problem

But then if it turns into serious war, you can’t backpedal .

So... do we stand up against a murderous psycho or be wimps ?

EndlessWire

(6,377 posts)
49. We make a stand.
Sat Apr 10, 2021, 01:43 PM
Apr 2021

It'll save us from having to make a much larger stand when Putin goes after other countries, like Estonia, etc.

I live on the WC. I'll be blown away when China or NK decide to enter and attack the western side. But, still I say, stick up for Ukraine. If we don't, we'll be sorry later.

At least we have confidence in Joe and Kamala. Putin failed to keep The Jerk in power. And, apparently he thinks that it doesn't matter. Letting him take Crimea was a big mistake.

Maybe we could help Ukraine build a wall. The whole world sectioned off with fences...sigh...

 

Rustyeye77

(2,736 posts)
51. The trouble is a lot of people are all gun-ho
Sat Apr 10, 2021, 02:19 PM
Apr 2021

until the first shot and then the backpedal away from their earlier position.

EndlessWire

(6,377 posts)
52. Well
Sat Apr 10, 2021, 02:59 PM
Apr 2021

First off, the military will do what it is instructed to do. They will not back off.

Second, I wouldn't expect the Repubs to support the endeavor, as they are subs to Putin. And, if Biden ordered it, or asked them to order it, they will automatically say "no." And, Manchin will automatically stand in line with the Repubs.

But, the average person on the street here can recognize that we can't let Ukraine fall to Russia. We can't have Putin in charge of the whole world. One way or another, as much as we might hate it, we will be in the suck, anyway. Sooner or later, Putin will be coming for US.

You can't stick your head in the sand. And, I believe that people can understand the simple logic. Your "check engine" light comes on, you better plan to visit your mechanic. Well, the world's check engine light is on. Maybe we will get out of a nuke war; but someone has to tell Putin "no."

NutmegYankee

(16,178 posts)
18. We need to ship thousands of Javelins into the Ukraine.
Fri Apr 9, 2021, 09:56 PM
Apr 2021

If the Russians want to throw a party, I insist they be the barbecue.

Oneironaut

(5,462 posts)
35. Yup - Javelins, AA, missiles, artillery, stealth fighters / bombers, a few M1A1s as a gift.
Sat Apr 10, 2021, 09:56 AM
Apr 2021

Ukraine probably wouldn’t be able to hold off Russia, but, let’s help them roast a few of them if they do invade.

EX500rider

(10,532 posts)
44. "Ukraine probably wouldn't be able to hold off Russia" I am not so sure about that:
Sat Apr 10, 2021, 10:45 AM
Apr 2021

The Ukrainian ground forces have 170,000 active-duty troops versus 350,000 for Russia (and over 500,000 in the U.S.). Since 2014 Ukraine has reorganized and upgraded its ground forces and currently has as many combat ready brigades as Russia. Ukraine also has more reserve troops, who are better trained and dedicated than their Russian equivalents. In other words, Ukraine is not exactly helpless against a Russian invasion but most of the fighting would take place in Ukraine and civilian casualties would mostly be Ukrainian, as would the property damage. If the Russians did not sense a quick victory, they would probably propose peace and Ukraine would accept. As much as Ukrainians would like to humiliate their ancient Russian oppressors militarily, practical considerations take precedence.
https://strategypage.com/qnd/russia/articles/20210401.aspx

Plus the Ukrainians defending their own country would most likely fight much harder then the Russian conscripts who probably wouldn't want to be there.
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