General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWhere we are at with regard to COVID delta variant in the USA
I haven't made these graphs for a while. With Delta surging, I thought they'd be useful.
In the first part of the first wave, blue states were hit hard -- COVID was uknown (though knowingly preventable with masks/social distancing). Hospitalized patients had higher mortality rates which ultimately lowered somewhat as medical care learned how to treat bad cases. Even at that red states managed to have worse outcomes for deaths/million (they passed the blue states in Feb '21 after the holiday gatherings)
This time, red states are getting hit first, and medical care has to learn how to treat the delta variant.
I through in the tests/million graph to underline that red states are not testing as hard as blue states, and given daily cases they should be testing *more* than blue states. Which means red states almost certainly have more unconfirmed cases/million than do blue states.
Deaths are now clearly rising.
Support your local health professionals, they are going through it again
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Countries daily cases -- USA Dem is USA states run by democratic governors, USA Rep are states run by republican governors
Countries daily deaths
USA tests
States daily cases (worst 8 states)
States daily deaths (worst 8 states)
Duncanpup
(12,716 posts)225 employees and now five people out with Covid, all five non vaccinated is what I heard.
mucifer
(23,373 posts)have worse vaccination numbers than the adult population of the state.
The doctors in our agency are doing their best to educate on the importance of the vaccine. But, I guess a lot of employees think they know more than our doctors.
It's horrible.
Pobeka
(4,999 posts)Pobeka
(4,999 posts)Delta is incredibly contagious, most people just don't understand.
Even though I'm vaccinated, retired, and wear a mask indoors in establishments, odds are high I've been exposed, just not enough viral load to break through my two layers of protection.
JudyM
(29,122 posts)could be covid. He has been traveling a lot in the US and masks indoors only. His reasoning was that Covid is respiratory. SMH.
NH Ethylene
(30,793 posts)More like cold symptoms, including a sore throat.
Sorry, no link, but easy to Google.
LisaL
(44,962 posts)NT
Ms. Toad
(33,915 posts)after experiencing extreme breathing difficulties. (I.e. my spouse was the primary first aid responder for a woman of unknown vaccination status who ultimately collapsed and was taken to the hospital with breathing difficulties severe enough that she was unable to breathe without assistance on the way to the hospital.)
I asked her if she (my spouse) was wearing her mask. She responded yes. Knowing how she functions, I asked her if she pulled down and got in close to the woman's face to make sure the woman could hear her. The only actual response was "I had my mask with me," which pretty much confirms my suspicions.
So I asked her if she was going to get a COVID test. Her response: Why would I - I'm vaccinated. (This is after I have ramped up the encouragement to mask the last few weeks, recited (daily) the dramatic increase in cases - both nationally and in our county.)
Here we go again.
JudyM
(29,122 posts)Stay safe!
Ms. Toad
(33,915 posts)Unfortunately, since the rest of my family does not understand the risks, that means I often have to treat my home as if it is any other indoor environment.
Sucks, but that's life. I've got metrics for when I will be willing to be unmasked outside my home. I haven't sorted out what will trigger masking at home (again), yet. But I suspect it's coming.
JudyM
(29,122 posts)tested. I feel for ya.
Ms. Toad
(33,915 posts)Generally I can convince her to do specific concrete things that are time limited (like going to get tested). It is long-term behaviors that don't stick - coupled with mild cognitive impairment which interferes with her flexibility to create/break habits and step through complex mental processing.
sdfernando
(4,896 posts)I still wear my mask except when drinking coffee or eating. Generally will eat outside the building or well socially distanced. Most of us are vaccinated but we don't know 100% because we cannot ask....still I know of at least 1 person in my area, fully vaccinated that got COVID anyway. Symptoms showed up the week before the 4th of July. Luckily I was took a long vacation and was out most of that week. If you have to be at work KEEP MASKING UP!
Ms. Toad
(33,915 posts)Have not stopped masking (aside from when I am alone in my office).
Unfortunately, I'm not seeing many others masking. (Only 3 others that I know of.) So I'm using my mask as an opportunity to talk about vaccinations not being a perfect defense, the Delta variant, the decreased effectiveness of the mRNA vaccines against, and overall lower effectiveness of the J&J vaccine.
In about 3 weeks I meet my first all-in-person class (no masks, no social distancing), since March 2020. 117 (and the class is still growing) brand new baby lawyers. Yikes!! (I've been on site teaching hybrid or zoom only for nearly a year. The hybrid classes were mandatory masks; 6' distance between chairs for the in-person contingent.)
I haven't decided yet whether to teach using a shield (for speech readiong assist) or just continue teaching with a mask. On the one hand I'm vaccinated and once the regular semester starts it would be 5 hours a week, most of it in a large classroom with a handful of students - the closest at least 15 feet from me (until I start wandering). On the other hand . . . Delta.
Pobeka
(4,999 posts)Ms. Toad
(33,915 posts)I was already firmly in the aerosol camp, based on other research about who was getting sick, the source of exposure (some had long ago left the room; some were considerably fartherthan 6' away). So it's nice to see a theoretical explanation for what was happening in real life.
KentuckyWoman
(6,666 posts)Scientifical mumbo jumbo put into plain language most can understand.
Response to Pobeka (Original post)
Pobeka This message was self-deleted by its author.
JudyM
(29,122 posts)Thanks for this interesting info, Pobeka.
plimsoll
(1,664 posts)They don't test, therefore it doesn't exist.
JudyM
(29,122 posts)Pinback
(12,134 posts)KentuckyWoman
(6,666 posts)So far it is pretty slow. Once school starts it will pick up. Jan 22 will be most likely a mess
Pobeka
(4,999 posts)I forced it to be the last state in the list so you can compare to the 7 worst states
LisaL
(44,962 posts)The number of infected is going up.
Ms. Toad
(33,915 posts)They rearranged the site, but I think I found where they hid most of them.
BumRushDaShow
(127,301 posts)and particularly for anyone who might get the Delta variant because the symptoms don't align with what evolved into the "classic" COVID-19 symptoms.
I expect the lack of tests will eventually show up as a delayed value for hospitalizations (if an infection comes to that).
I had read this morning in the local paper that one of our ace pitchers - Aaron Nola - who had to sit out games due to COVID protocols, had indicated it was his "personal choice" not to get vaccinated.
by Matt Breen
Published Jul 16, 2021
Aaron Nola missed his final start of the seasons first half after being placed on the COVID-19 injured list for having close contact with an infected teammate. But the Phillies pitcher said the events of the last week have not motivated him or other unvaccinated teammates to get vaccinated against the virus. I dont think it motivates anybody. Its a personal choice, Nola said Friday after rejoining the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Ill leave it at that. I dont know what other guys are doing. I think you just have to be careful.
(snip)
The Phillies are one of seven major league teams to not have at least 85% of their traveling party -- players, coaches, and essential staff -- receive the vaccination. Until they reach that threshold, the players have to wear tracking devices, which is what provided the data to place Nola and the other two pitchers into COVID-19 safety protocols. I dont know. Its a personal choice, Nola said when asked if he would reconsider his stance on being vaccinated. Not right now. Ill keep it at that.
The Phillies have filmed public service announcements this season to encourage fans to get vaccinated and even the Phillie Phanatic got vaccinated in an effort to motivate others to do so. The team held a vaccine clinic at the ballpark and offered free tickets last month to people who received the vaccine at city clinics. Yet that campaign seemed to contradict the decisions made by a sizable group of players who have declined to be vaccinated.
I cant tell everyone what their personal opinion should be, said Girardi, whose photo of being vaccinated was used by the team to promote their vaccination night at the ballpark. Thats not what Im trying to do. I felt it was safe for me. Theres a lot of things I believe in that other people dont believe in. Thats OK. Thats what makes our world go round and round. But isnt it hard for the Phillies to tell fans to get vaccinated when players are declining to do so? I think it tells everyone whos out there in our community that we understand its a personal choice, Girardi said.
https://www.inquirer.com/phillies/phillies-aaron-nola-covid-vaccination-alec-bohm-joe-giardi-unvaccinated-20210716.html
New talking point - "personal choice".
Of course if a woman wanted to terminate a pregnancy or solicit other reproductive health advice, then a "personal choice" doesn't apply.
TheRickles
(1,999 posts)Have you seen any data about what % of those who test positive via PCR are actually symptomatic? Mild, moderate, severe, etc. Since asymptomatic people are not good spreaders compared to symptomatic folks (coughing, sneezing), it's an important public health consideration.
Pobeka
(4,999 posts)I think the number of symptomatic individuals tested is high because that's why they got tested in the first place --- because of the symptoms.
There is another cohort of individuals taking tests who just want to be allowed into a venue or activity. I think that cohort is pretty small though (relative to the symptomatic individuals getting tested), and the portion of those testing positive is even smaller.
So when you run the numbers for the entire set of people tested, it just seems like the proportion of positive with symptoms will be pretty high.
TheRickles
(1,999 posts)People I know have gotten tested because they want clearance to go places and do things - your second cohort. I know two people who got tested because of symptoms, but several dozen who did so for the other reason. This small non-random sample doesn't mean squat, of course, which is why I was hoping for some more solid data.
The only thing I've seen is a study from China that did contact tracing of everyone who tested positive, and found a very very low rate of positivity in their contacts. "There were no positive tests amongst 1,174 close contacts of asymptomatic cases." https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19802-w?fbclid=IwAR1TW1gnm-vSr9VpF_TlJmM494bor9QITAJcC9xDKAK7IjxgrRD-e5RBfQc
It's a surprising result, and I'm surprised there hasn't been more follow-up.
Pobeka
(4,999 posts)You make a good point about how our personal biases affect our perspectives. I personally only know one person who got tested in order to get clearance for an event. I know about a dozen who got tested because of symptoms. That undoubtably affects my wild *ss guess
I wonder how worse the numbers would be in that China study if it was Delta variant, and not the original wild strain?
Initech
(99,914 posts)LisaL
(44,962 posts)It's not that some people don't want the pandemic to end, it's the pandemic is not ending.
Cases are going up all over US.
Initech
(99,914 posts)Even Fauci himself said that 99% of all cases now are un-vaccinated people.
I still stand with my belief of no vaccine, no entry. It truly sucks that we are going through this bullshit again because of truly selfish people who won't do what they are supposed to do and get the damn vaccine.
To me, the reason why I pointed this out is because there are people, even here, who are cheering at the possibility of more lockdowns. That's seriously fucked up.