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Pobeka

(4,999 posts)
Sat Jul 17, 2021, 09:30 AM Jul 2021

Where we are at with regard to COVID delta variant in the USA

I haven't made these graphs for a while. With Delta surging, I thought they'd be useful.

In the first part of the first wave, blue states were hit hard -- COVID was uknown (though knowingly preventable with masks/social distancing). Hospitalized patients had higher mortality rates which ultimately lowered somewhat as medical care learned how to treat bad cases. Even at that red states managed to have worse outcomes for deaths/million (they passed the blue states in Feb '21 after the holiday gatherings)

This time, red states are getting hit first, and medical care has to learn how to treat the delta variant.

I through in the tests/million graph to underline that red states are not testing as hard as blue states, and given daily cases they should be testing *more* than blue states. Which means red states almost certainly have more unconfirmed cases/million than do blue states.

Deaths are now clearly rising.

Support your local health professionals, they are going through it again
---

Countries daily cases -- USA Dem is USA states run by democratic governors, USA Rep are states run by republican governors


Countries daily deaths


USA tests


States daily cases (worst 8 states)


States daily deaths (worst 8 states)

35 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Where we are at with regard to COVID delta variant in the USA (Original Post) Pobeka Jul 2021 OP
We have at my job Duncanpup Jul 2021 #1
I work for a health care agency where 50% of the total employees aren't vaxxed in a blue state We mucifer Jul 2021 #3
Yuk. I have taken to calling it mass hysteria. Be safe! n/t Pobeka Jul 2021 #6
If there are other unvaccinated there, odds are high they're infected too. Pobeka Jul 2021 #5
An otherwise well-educated friend laughed it off yesterday when I suggested his 10-day sore throat JudyM Jul 2021 #7
I read somewhere that Delta presents differently. NH Ethylene Jul 2021 #8
Yep, delta presents with symptoms more similar to that of a cold. LisaL Jul 2021 #10
My spouse was in very close contact with someone who was taken to the hospital Ms. Toad Jul 2021 #26
Unreal. So much is upside down. JudyM Jul 2021 #28
I'm relatively confident in my ability to keep myself safe. Ms. Toad Jul 2021 #30
That's a tough situation, with your girl getting up close to possible carriers and not getting JudyM Jul 2021 #31
She did ultimately agree to be tested. Ms. Toad Jul 2021 #32
We are back at work Tue-Thurs sdfernando Jul 2021 #13
I've been back to work since August Ms. Toad Jul 2021 #27
Don't know if you've seen this, but it may be helpful in your decision making Pobeka Jul 2021 #33
I saw it when it came out - fascinating! Ms. Toad Jul 2021 #34
This article is fantastic. Thank you for posting KentuckyWoman Jul 2021 #35
This message was self-deleted by its author Pobeka Jul 2021 #2
Red states are actually testing *less* in July while blue are testing more. Head in sand much? JudyM Jul 2021 #4
No, it's related to object permanence I think. plimsoll Jul 2021 #11
Frequency actually declined, though... JudyM Jul 2021 #23
Good work. Thanks. (nt) Pinback Jul 2021 #9
Ohio made it harder to get stats. KentuckyWoman Jul 2021 #12
Ohio has started to tick up too Pobeka Jul 2021 #14
OH is reporting the number of infected each day. LisaL Jul 2021 #24
Which stats are you looking for? Ms. Toad Jul 2021 #29
I've been concerned about what is probably a reduced amount of testing BumRushDaShow Jul 2021 #15
Thanks for this info, Pobeka. A question: TheRickles Jul 2021 #16
I haven't seen that kind of data in particular, but I suspect the number is high. Pobeka Jul 2021 #17
Maybe, but that hasn't matched my (limited) experience. TheRickles Jul 2021 #19
Yes to all that. Pobeka Jul 2021 #22
Bill Maher was right - some people just don't want the pandemic to end. Initech Jul 2021 #18
What an absurd statement. LisaL Jul 2021 #20
But we can all agree that the reason cases are going up is because of anti-vaxxers, right? Initech Jul 2021 #21
And it's not ending because they are not doing their part. Nt helpisontheway Jul 2021 #25

Duncanpup

(12,716 posts)
1. We have at my job
Sat Jul 17, 2021, 09:35 AM
Jul 2021

225 employees and now five people out with Covid, all five non vaccinated is what I heard.

mucifer

(23,373 posts)
3. I work for a health care agency where 50% of the total employees aren't vaxxed in a blue state We
Sat Jul 17, 2021, 09:40 AM
Jul 2021

have worse vaccination numbers than the adult population of the state.

The doctors in our agency are doing their best to educate on the importance of the vaccine. But, I guess a lot of employees think they know more than our doctors.

It's horrible.

Pobeka

(4,999 posts)
5. If there are other unvaccinated there, odds are high they're infected too.
Sat Jul 17, 2021, 09:40 AM
Jul 2021

Delta is incredibly contagious, most people just don't understand.

Even though I'm vaccinated, retired, and wear a mask indoors in establishments, odds are high I've been exposed, just not enough viral load to break through my two layers of protection.

JudyM

(29,122 posts)
7. An otherwise well-educated friend laughed it off yesterday when I suggested his 10-day sore throat
Sat Jul 17, 2021, 09:44 AM
Jul 2021

could be covid. He has been traveling a lot in the US and masks indoors only. His reasoning was that “Covid is respiratory.” SMH.

NH Ethylene

(30,793 posts)
8. I read somewhere that Delta presents differently.
Sat Jul 17, 2021, 11:36 AM
Jul 2021

More like cold symptoms, including a sore throat.

Sorry, no link, but easy to Google.

Ms. Toad

(33,915 posts)
26. My spouse was in very close contact with someone who was taken to the hospital
Sat Jul 17, 2021, 10:15 PM
Jul 2021

after experiencing extreme breathing difficulties. (I.e. my spouse was the primary first aid responder for a woman of unknown vaccination status who ultimately collapsed and was taken to the hospital with breathing difficulties severe enough that she was unable to breathe without assistance on the way to the hospital.)

I asked her if she (my spouse) was wearing her mask. She responded yes. Knowing how she functions, I asked her if she pulled down and got in close to the woman's face to make sure the woman could hear her. The only actual response was "I had my mask with me," which pretty much confirms my suspicions.

So I asked her if she was going to get a COVID test. Her response: Why would I - I'm vaccinated. (This is after I have ramped up the encouragement to mask the last few weeks, recited (daily) the dramatic increase in cases - both nationally and in our county.)

Here we go again.

Ms. Toad

(33,915 posts)
30. I'm relatively confident in my ability to keep myself safe.
Sat Jul 17, 2021, 10:46 PM
Jul 2021

Unfortunately, since the rest of my family does not understand the risks, that means I often have to treat my home as if it is any other indoor environment.

Sucks, but that's life. I've got metrics for when I will be willing to be unmasked outside my home. I haven't sorted out what will trigger masking at home (again), yet. But I suspect it's coming.

JudyM

(29,122 posts)
31. That's a tough situation, with your girl getting up close to possible carriers and not getting
Sat Jul 17, 2021, 11:27 PM
Jul 2021

tested. I feel for ya.

Ms. Toad

(33,915 posts)
32. She did ultimately agree to be tested.
Sat Jul 17, 2021, 11:37 PM
Jul 2021

Generally I can convince her to do specific concrete things that are time limited (like going to get tested). It is long-term behaviors that don't stick - coupled with mild cognitive impairment which interferes with her flexibility to create/break habits and step through complex mental processing.

sdfernando

(4,896 posts)
13. We are back at work Tue-Thurs
Sat Jul 17, 2021, 12:39 PM
Jul 2021

I still wear my mask except when drinking coffee or eating. Generally will eat outside the building or well socially distanced. Most of us are vaccinated but we don't know 100% because we cannot ask....still I know of at least 1 person in my area, fully vaccinated that got COVID anyway. Symptoms showed up the week before the 4th of July. Luckily I was took a long vacation and was out most of that week. If you have to be at work KEEP MASKING UP!

Ms. Toad

(33,915 posts)
27. I've been back to work since August
Sat Jul 17, 2021, 10:32 PM
Jul 2021

Have not stopped masking (aside from when I am alone in my office).

Unfortunately, I'm not seeing many others masking. (Only 3 others that I know of.) So I'm using my mask as an opportunity to talk about vaccinations not being a perfect defense, the Delta variant, the decreased effectiveness of the mRNA vaccines against, and overall lower effectiveness of the J&J vaccine.

In about 3 weeks I meet my first all-in-person class (no masks, no social distancing), since March 2020. 117 (and the class is still growing) brand new baby lawyers. Yikes!! (I've been on site teaching hybrid or zoom only for nearly a year. The hybrid classes were mandatory masks; 6' distance between chairs for the in-person contingent.)

I haven't decided yet whether to teach using a shield (for speech readiong assist) or just continue teaching with a mask. On the one hand I'm vaccinated and once the regular semester starts it would be 5 hours a week, most of it in a large classroom with a handful of students - the closest at least 15 feet from me (until I start wandering). On the other hand . . . Delta.

Ms. Toad

(33,915 posts)
34. I saw it when it came out - fascinating!
Mon Jul 19, 2021, 09:25 PM
Jul 2021

I was already firmly in the aerosol camp, based on other research about who was getting sick, the source of exposure (some had long ago left the room; some were considerably fartherthan 6' away). So it's nice to see a theoretical explanation for what was happening in real life.

KentuckyWoman

(6,666 posts)
35. This article is fantastic. Thank you for posting
Mon Jul 19, 2021, 09:35 PM
Jul 2021

Scientifical mumbo jumbo put into plain language most can understand.

Response to Pobeka (Original post)

JudyM

(29,122 posts)
4. Red states are actually testing *less* in July while blue are testing more. Head in sand much?
Sat Jul 17, 2021, 09:40 AM
Jul 2021

Thanks for this interesting info, Pobeka.

KentuckyWoman

(6,666 posts)
12. Ohio made it harder to get stats.
Sat Jul 17, 2021, 12:35 PM
Jul 2021

So far it is pretty slow. Once school starts it will pick up. Jan 22 will be most likely a mess

Pobeka

(4,999 posts)
14. Ohio has started to tick up too
Sat Jul 17, 2021, 12:44 PM
Jul 2021

I forced it to be the last state in the list so you can compare to the 7 worst states

Ms. Toad

(33,915 posts)
29. Which stats are you looking for?
Sat Jul 17, 2021, 10:34 PM
Jul 2021

They rearranged the site, but I think I found where they hid most of them.

BumRushDaShow

(127,301 posts)
15. I've been concerned about what is probably a reduced amount of testing
Sat Jul 17, 2021, 12:50 PM
Jul 2021

and particularly for anyone who might get the Delta variant because the symptoms don't align with what evolved into the "classic" COVID-19 symptoms.

I expect the lack of tests will eventually show up as a delayed value for hospitalizations (if an infection comes to that).

I had read this morning in the local paper that one of our ace pitchers - Aaron Nola - who had to sit out games due to COVID protocols, had indicated it was his "personal choice" not to get vaccinated.

Phillies’ Aaron Nola says not being vaccinated is a ‘personal choice’ after he missed a start on the COVID-19 injured list

by Matt Breen
Published Jul 16, 2021

Aaron Nola missed his final start of the season’s first half after being placed on the COVID-19 injured list for having close contact with an infected teammate. But the Phillies pitcher said the events of the last week have not motivated him or other unvaccinated teammates to get vaccinated against the virus. “I don’t think it motivates anybody. It’s a personal choice,” Nola said Friday after rejoining the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. “I’ll leave it at that. I don’t know what other guys are doing. I think you just have to be careful.”

(snip)

The Phillies are one of seven major league teams to not have at least 85% of their traveling party -- players, coaches, and essential staff -- receive the vaccination. Until they reach that threshold, the players have to wear tracking devices, which is what provided the data to place Nola and the other two pitchers into COVID-19 safety protocols. “I don’t know. It’s a personal choice,” Nola said when asked if he would reconsider his stance on being vaccinated. “Not right now. I’ll keep it at that.”

The Phillies have filmed public service announcements this season to encourage fans to get vaccinated and even the Phillie Phanatic got vaccinated in an effort to motivate others to do so. The team held a vaccine clinic at the ballpark and offered free tickets last month to people who received the vaccine at city clinics. Yet that campaign seemed to contradict the decisions made by a sizable group of players who have declined to be vaccinated.

“I can’t tell everyone what their personal opinion should be,” said Girardi, whose photo of being vaccinated was used by the team to promote their vaccination night at the ballpark. “That’s not what I’m trying to do. I felt it was safe for me. There’s a lot of things I believe in that other people don’t believe in. That’s OK. That’s what makes our world go round and round.” But isn’t it hard for the Phillies to tell fans to get vaccinated when players are declining to do so? “I think it tells everyone who’s out there in our community that we understand it’s a personal choice,” Girardi said.

https://www.inquirer.com/phillies/phillies-aaron-nola-covid-vaccination-alec-bohm-joe-giardi-unvaccinated-20210716.html


New talking point - "personal choice".

Of course if a woman wanted to terminate a pregnancy or solicit other reproductive health advice, then a "personal choice" doesn't apply.

TheRickles

(1,999 posts)
16. Thanks for this info, Pobeka. A question:
Sat Jul 17, 2021, 12:50 PM
Jul 2021

Have you seen any data about what % of those who test positive via PCR are actually symptomatic? Mild, moderate, severe, etc. Since asymptomatic people are not good spreaders compared to symptomatic folks (coughing, sneezing), it's an important public health consideration.

Pobeka

(4,999 posts)
17. I haven't seen that kind of data in particular, but I suspect the number is high.
Sat Jul 17, 2021, 12:59 PM
Jul 2021

I think the number of symptomatic individuals tested is high because that's why they got tested in the first place --- because of the symptoms.

There is another cohort of individuals taking tests who just want to be allowed into a venue or activity. I think that cohort is pretty small though (relative to the symptomatic individuals getting tested), and the portion of those testing positive is even smaller.

So when you run the numbers for the entire set of people tested, it just seems like the proportion of positive with symptoms will be pretty high.

TheRickles

(1,999 posts)
19. Maybe, but that hasn't matched my (limited) experience.
Sat Jul 17, 2021, 03:10 PM
Jul 2021

People I know have gotten tested because they want clearance to go places and do things - your second cohort. I know two people who got tested because of symptoms, but several dozen who did so for the other reason. This small non-random sample doesn't mean squat, of course, which is why I was hoping for some more solid data.

The only thing I've seen is a study from China that did contact tracing of everyone who tested positive, and found a very very low rate of positivity in their contacts. "There were no positive tests amongst 1,174 close contacts of asymptomatic cases." https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19802-w?fbclid=IwAR1TW1gnm-vSr9VpF_TlJmM494bor9QITAJcC9xDKAK7IjxgrRD-e5RBfQc

It's a surprising result, and I'm surprised there hasn't been more follow-up.

Pobeka

(4,999 posts)
22. Yes to all that.
Sat Jul 17, 2021, 06:03 PM
Jul 2021

You make a good point about how our personal biases affect our perspectives. I personally only know one person who got tested in order to get clearance for an event. I know about a dozen who got tested because of symptoms. That undoubtably affects my wild *ss guess

I wonder how worse the numbers would be in that China study if it was Delta variant, and not the original wild strain?

LisaL

(44,962 posts)
20. What an absurd statement.
Sat Jul 17, 2021, 03:20 PM
Jul 2021

It's not that some people don't want the pandemic to end, it's the pandemic is not ending.
Cases are going up all over US.

Initech

(99,914 posts)
21. But we can all agree that the reason cases are going up is because of anti-vaxxers, right?
Sat Jul 17, 2021, 04:30 PM
Jul 2021

Even Fauci himself said that 99% of all cases now are un-vaccinated people.

I still stand with my belief of no vaccine, no entry. It truly sucks that we are going through this bullshit again because of truly selfish people who won't do what they are supposed to do and get the damn vaccine.

To me, the reason why I pointed this out is because there are people, even here, who are cheering at the possibility of more lockdowns. That's seriously fucked up.

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