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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsDr. Faucci thinks Covid could be endemic by Spring.
There seems to be some dispute about what 'endemic' means,
but Dr. Faucci thinks we could be there by the spring:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/nov/16/fauci-covid-endemic-vaccinations-boosters-us
SoCalDavidS
(9,998 posts)He said IF we do certain things, including significant increases to the # getting vaccinated.
ZERO CHANCE!
We're going to be in Pandemic status for many Months, but more likely Years.
Tomconroy
(7,611 posts)SoCalDavidS
(9,998 posts)Again, not a chance.
Just because their #'s are down at the moment, does not mean they won't have a significant surge in the not too distant future.
Some of those Southern states have vaccination rates below 50%. Not a chance they're going to be anywhere near endemic status.
Endemic implies that it's more or less under control. NO WAY does America have this under control.
Dr. Fauci is an optimist. But I'm sure he's not buying what he's selling. Deep down he knows the same segment of the American population won't listen to a thing he says, and that we're essentially at the point where anyone who hasn't been vaccinated, isn't going to get vaccinated.
Tomconroy
(7,611 posts)a real possibility?
SoCalDavidS
(9,998 posts)I remember when he talked about how with Delta, we needed to achieve 85% vaccinated, as if that was a possibility.
He's merely saying what COULD be possible, were we a normal, responsible and functioning society. WE ARE NOT.
1/3rd of the country couldn't care less about what he has to say. He would be very naive to think otherwise. I don't expect him to come out and admit that, but it's still fact.
He's still going to talk like President Biden, and pretend we have a receptive population who give a shit. But that's fantasy, not reality.
Tomconroy
(7,611 posts)and deaths people would be more optimistic.
SoCalDavidS
(9,998 posts)That's cause for optimism?
Anyways, there's no need to debate. I've tended to be right through most of the last 20 months. Not always, but the majority of the time I've relied on the Degenerates amongst the American public, as a guide to how fucked up we would be in handling the outbreak.
I stand by my prediction. America May Barely Achieve 70% Vaccinated. And even that won't come for several more months. And I feel safe in saying that we will not escape the pandemic status of Covid in the next several months, if ever. I know it's not pleasant to think about, but don't look at me. I've been responsible throughout. I just call it as I see it, and this nation is pathetic.
We're a colossal embarrassment, and that reality will become apparent to other more responsible countries before too long.
Tomconroy
(7,611 posts)Last edited Fri Nov 19, 2021, 07:54 AM - Edit history (1)
Deaths may start to drop again.
Did you know the CDC does an estimate of how many people have caught Covid as opposed to the official one? I think the latest estimate was about 147000000 as of Oct 1. If the real number is anything like that what's the point of the 'official'
case statistics?
I'm an optimist. I'm not always right but I sometimes am. I was right that it was safe to attend football games this fall. So there's that.
Mariana
(14,847 posts)Tomconroy
(7,611 posts)Paywalled. If you do get through check out the little hot spot maps for cases v. hospitalizations. Just looking at the hospitalizations one you'd conclude even today things aren't too bad.
Mariana
(14,847 posts)Tomconroy
(7,611 posts)Mariana
(14,847 posts)Interestingly, they also estimate that Covid hospitalizations and deaths have been seriously underreported.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html
BannonsLiver
(16,161 posts)I think I'll defer to Dr. Fauci.
One way or another, through more vaccinated people/more deaths of Covidiots/ we will get there.
BigmanPigman
(51,430 posts)We're already starting another wave (the 6th) and have been for a month. With winter coming and low vax rates we definitely have this wave and likely at least one more. I am concerned about a new variant since it is taking the world a long time to get rid of Covid.
Look at the bar graph for the US.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
BlackSkimmer
(51,308 posts)Delphinus
(11,808 posts)One section of the country would be hit hard, then get better as others got hit?
helpisontheway
(5,004 posts)places like Florida have a spike in summer because it is so hot so people go inside. Then he said up north people go inside during the winter months so covid spikes.
cinematicdiversions
(1,969 posts)The populated areas of Florida also have a pretty high vaccination rate which helps
Pachamama
(16,873 posts)I think its going to be a very long winter .
Tomconroy
(7,611 posts)Cases are way up. Deaths are up some but nothing like the way cases have jumped. I couldn't get the thing to work for hospitalizations. Have they done boosters there? Are the elderly most effected? Don't know.
Tomconroy
(7,611 posts)But the unvaxxed may be the issue there. I did notice that they treat having a recent Covid case the same as being vaxxed.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/17/merkel-warns-fourth-covid-wave-is-hitting-germany-with-full-force.html
Pachamama
(16,873 posts)
they stopped free testing, pandemic fatigue
And now the colder winter days
Genesen (one of the two Gs) means you can prove you recovered from Covid and yes, are therefore given the same status as vaccinated. I personally think that was a big mistake to equate those two because it only adds to the theory the anti-vaxxers and conspiracy theorists have that its all a lie and just like the flu. In fact the theory now by anti-vaxxers is that the only reason numbers have gone up is because more people were getting tested before taking flu vaccine and therefore the numbers appear higher because in truth everyone already has Covid
And the politicians in Germany are too afraid to have anymore restrictions and lockdowns and have anger and backlash.
I personally think they need to have restrictions on the non-vaccinated (whether they had Covid or not), remove the Genesen status, vaccine mandates for all government employees and definitely healthcare and elderly/homecare employees, incentives for vaccines, vaccine availability for 5-11 year olds, free testing, stricter controls on fake digital passports and penalties (very big business apparently now).
Tomconroy
(7,611 posts)And I am very worried
Tomconroy
(7,611 posts)Pachamama
(16,873 posts)I take comfort in the fact that I got my booster, can work from home and minimize going out other than to get groceries. Where my mask everywhere.
I worry because I know with the low vaccination rate and the amount of interaction going on that a lot of people are going to be infected and transmissions gone wild.
Its the mutations coming that should be worrying for us all.
madville
(7,397 posts)(of a disease or condition) regularly found among particular people or in a certain area.
Tomconroy
(7,611 posts)People are getting out. Performing arts venues have reopened. The symphony started up. Our case rates have increased a bit recently but I don't think things will go backwards unless there is a new variant which the mavens seem to think is unlikely.
femmedem
(8,187 posts)But our vaccination rate is high so I'm hoping the cases aren't severe.
Tomconroy
(7,611 posts)For the last couple of months, throwing our stats off a bit. Most counties had reached moderate spread a little while ago but have increased in the last few days. Hope for the best.
mucifer
(23,371 posts)Tomconroy
(7,611 posts)If it's as good as they say.
Mariana
(14,847 posts)Doesn't it have to be taken very early in the course of the disease to be effective? So many of the antivaxxers/Covid deniers don't believe they have Covid until they land in the hospital, gasping for breath. The pill isn't going to do them any good.
mucifer
(23,371 posts)Mariana
(14,847 posts)The researchers can't force-feed it to the people who need it.
liberal_mama
(1,495 posts)and painful prolonged death. I also hope the pill prevents long haul Covid as I know several people who are suffering from it. One of them, the best man at my daughter's wedding, was a healthy guy in his 20s and he can barely walk across his livingroom now without sitting down. He worked on Wall Street so he caught Covid right away.
Tomconroy
(7,611 posts)It sounds like they can prevent death at any stage of Covid.
Brainfodder
(6,423 posts)Factor or no?
Tomconroy
(7,611 posts)Last edited Fri Nov 19, 2021, 05:09 PM - Edit history (1)
90 percent? Can that be right? If it's true and they knock out a big supply that would make Covid similar to the flu. Not great but not terrible.
If the pills happen we could be out of the woods sooner than Dr. Faucci thinks.
Johnny2X2X
(18,733 posts)Dem leaders in most states have given up trying to protect their citizens, Republican leaders have outlawed protecting people.
Here in Michigan, there are no restrictions and the only places with mask mandates are hospitals and schools. And we have the worst rate of new cases in the country. People are just numb to the death and sickness, they don't care anymore. If it's not their family, they don't care who dies. Republicans bet on Americans not caring about each other, and it seems they bet right, people just don't care who is dying anymore. Stunning lack of caring, but it's what we've become.
marie999
(3,334 posts)BannonsLiver
(16,161 posts)Theyre not all RWers. Thats for sure. Will leave it at that.
Tomconroy
(7,611 posts)Gottlieb who says endemic by Jan. That person said they preferred to listen to a real expert like Dr. Faucci. So I quickly pulled up the article from the Guardian and suddenly Faucci was a bum.
liberal_mama
(1,495 posts)I realize he wanted to save them for health care workers, but at that point, you couldn't buy a mask anyway and a lot of people already had masks in their houses or were capable of making them.
When we got hit real bad in the beginning in New York, masking could have saved lives and slowed the spread.
I could read between the lines and immediately put on a mask, knowing that if masks would protect health care workers, they would also protect me.
I had several boxes of masks on hand of masks on hand as I always wore them during flu season. Plus my husband is a auto tech so he had a good supply of N95 masks. We had enough to share with family and neighbors. Even my daughter and son-in-law had a box of N95s in their garage leftover from when they did some home improvements.
In the beginning, some people harassed mask wearers because they thought they were taking masks away from health care workers because of Fauci's statement.
But I'm not triggered by Fauci. I just think it was an unfortunate mistake. I'm sure he wishes he didn't say it.