General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsThis is what I think will happen in the current standoff in Europe.
Putin may wind up taking part or even all of Ukraine. But Biden will show him it will be far more expensive than he thought it would be, and for a long time.
It will be the equivalent of getting a new Chevy pickup truck but finding out it's going to cost a thousand dollars a day to park it. Enough to make you not want another Chevy pickup truck.
Torchlight
(3,233 posts)in NATO will be given a lot more weight both from the western populations as well as the western governments (that is, if the nation still exists in May).
As it applies to sanctions though, it partially comes down to the collective will of the people in the face of shortages. I can't speak for the Russian people, but the past two years, I witnessed a third of our electorate whine like schoolchildren for no other reason than they had to wear a mask. Place a real consumer crisis in their laps, and I'm afraid they'll fold faster than Superman on laundry day.
My confidence in the strength of the American electorate has been slowly eroding over the past couple of years, and my guess is that our complacency and prioritizing of consumer convenience is quickly becoming our raison d'etre. That bodes badly in a contest of wills.
Long term,
What happens with respect to the other Eastern European countries if Putin takes the Ukraine?
What do you think the thinking will be about NATO, and the ability of the United States to further influence or contain Putin?
Do you realistically think that if Putin acquires Ukraine - it will stop further aggression on his part or will it encourage him, because of what he might perceive as the weakness of the West?
Do you think an effective aggressive action on the part of Putin and the failure to act on the part of the West, might encourage North Korea to maybe make a move on South Korea? And if we do decide to engage Putin militarily would that entice North Korea to act due to the West's engagement in Eastern Europe?
Do you think that TFG provided secrets to Putin that might be used against the West?
Would an action by Putin also influence China to act against Taiwan?
That Chevy might be expensive to both parties....
Mr.Bill
(24,103 posts)because it will be more than he can afford or handle. Hell, he can't afford what's happening now, but I think he can't accurately assess what it's really going to cost. There will be plenty of action taken by the west. It just won't involve spilling American blood.
Patterson
(1,525 posts)Having Ukraine back in the USSR is invaluable to Russia and Putin.
roamer65
(36,739 posts)Putin will go where Russian is spoken for now.
For now.