General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsHow to Watch Election Night
I'm probably speaking to a group that already is aware of what I'm trying to say here.
However, for those friends of yours that don't frequent DU, here's how I break down election night, going from the East Coast to the West Coast, using the time zones as we move across the electoral map.
If Obama holds Pennsylvania and wins either Virginia or Florida (I assume if he wins North Carolina, he'll win the other two), the election will be Obama's. As much as I love New Hampshire, it only comes into play in a very long night scenario.
If Romney wins North Carolina, Florida and Virginia and plucks Pennsylvania from the Democratic column, it's good night America.
If Romney wins Virginia, Florida, North Carolina and Obama carries Pennsylvania, everyone in the East has held serve and we move to the Mid-West.
Assuming Romney holds Missouri and Indiana and Obama holds Michigan, we move to the Obama fire-wall. Obama then needs to win Ohio and Wisconsin to move to the next level. If Obama wins those two states and carries Iowa, he's at 271 (as long as there are no surprises in the West Coast states in which he is ahead by 8 or more points). If Obama Wins Ohio and Wisconsin, but loses Iowa, those 6 electoral votes can be replaced by Nevada's 6. If we carry Ohio and lose Wisconsin, those 10 votes can be replaced with Colorado's 9, giving us 270 as long as Obama still wins either Nevada or Iowa. If Obama loses Wisconsin and carries Ohio, Iowa and Nevada, but loses Colorado, he needs New Hampshire to get to 271.
Those are the scenarios that I see, can you add any others?
Speck Tater
(10,618 posts)I'll find out the results the next morning, and not have to suffer frazzled nerves and heartburn in the process. Waiting up for the results is beyond pointless, unless you want "bragging rights" to be able to say "I knew the outcome before you did."
PCIntern
(25,341 posts)That's a mouthful....I'm impressed!
hootinholler
(26,449 posts)nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)(or it will be LONG AND DRAWN... regardless I do hope it is a short night... the irish wake will be fun to cover)