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Wed Mar 30, 2022, 12:23 PM

Thoughts on how the Ukraine end game plays out if RU stops/ retreats?

Assuming Putin at some point accepts he has been fought to a virtual standstill and RU does not have the blood and treasure necessary to continue to prosecute the war, AND he doesn't go nuclear and just level Kyiv and some other major cities and strongholds, how does he back out and what does he get out of it from a sanctions' relief standpoint and politically?

My concern is that if things stay conventional and there is some amount of pullback to pre-war borders, with likely exception of Crimea and the Donbass, the EU will be more than happy to lift sanctions, not require any reparations and let Putin pretty much alone if they can still get gas and oil. I'd like to hope that I am wrong, and sanctions will stay in place until there is some reassurance we aren't all here again in some RU border country in the future and stiff reparations are put in place to help Ukraine rebuild, but I am not optimistic. Wondering what fellow DUers think?

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Reply Thoughts on how the Ukraine end game plays out if RU stops/ retreats? (Original post)
dutch777 Mar 2022 OP
Sherman A1 Mar 2022 #1
Tomconroy Mar 2022 #2

Response to dutch777 (Original post)

Wed Mar 30, 2022, 12:35 PM

1. I don't see the EU or anyone lifting sanctions quickly

There are too many nations right next door that have very serious interests in this not happening.

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Response to dutch777 (Original post)

Wed Mar 30, 2022, 01:08 PM

2. Wars usually end by conquest or a deal. Ukraine isn't marching into Moscow

Anytime soon so if the war is to end there will be a deal and Ukraine will give up something.

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