Update on the Donbas by Prof. Phillips P. OBrien

[Tomconroy]

A longish thread just published. I'm inclined to agree with the Professor and the latest report last night by the Institute for the Study of War that the Russian offensive in the Donbas is stalled everywhere but the city of Severodonetsk and will soon come to an end.

Link to tweet

Meanwhile near Kherson the Ukraine General Staff has confirmed that they are on the offensive and engaged in fighting near a village called I believe Kostromka which means they have advanced since yesterday.

[Lovie777]

1. Am I to hopefully believe that as of this date. . .

in Severodonetsk, the Russian units are held up and cornered in a hotel. UA have advanced in Kherson, and the West further monster missal equipment is there with newly acquired aircrafts.

Oh again, Putin is claiming for newly talks, i.e. negotiations.

[oldsoftie]

2. I hoped the Russians would make the same mistakes; stretching their supplies too thin.

And I had also hoped at some point to hear of pressure in the South. Its imperative that the commies NOT be allowed to "settle in" those southern areas that will continue to allow them to shut down Odesa.
If UKR can support a 2 front war, I don't believe russia CAN

[jcgoldie]

10. "the commies"?

[oldsoftie]

13. Yes Putin didnt change just because the Soviet Union broke up

I'm sick of the semantics for this POS. State control of the economy has increased every year he has been in charge. He & his cronies steal vast amounts of money from the State, just like the old days of the USSR. He has pledged to rebuild the USSR. No reason to think he'd allow MORE freedom or democracy if he succeeds.

[niyad]

3. May it be so!

[The Jungle 1]

4. Blow up the Kerch Strait Bridge please.

I so want that to happen!

[Tomconroy]

5. It just may be that Ukraine intends to use that bridge this summer.

[The Jungle 1]

9. Well that could be

[PortTack]

6. Thx for posting. Read this guy's entire thread

Have been worried that UKR forces were about to be encircled at SDonestk, but it sounds like that may not be the case. I can’t imagine they would allow themselves to get caught in another Mariupol.

At one point in the Twitter thread he says he thinks SDonestk is not of much importance. I believe I have read this is a major supply area for UKR.

President Zelensky said 3-4 days ago their losses were 50-100 soliders a day..ughhh😓. Didn’t say anything at that time about russian losses.

I did see as you mentioned they have opened up another counter offensive in the Kherson oblast. Since the beginning of the battle for Donbas I have read UKR forces were as Clint Watts pointed out “trading space for time” in the hopes that the russians would spread their front too thin for them to defend, or to push forward. You think this is what’s happening?

I get most of my updates from 3 very reliable sources.
Denys Davydov Ukrainian-on YouTube
CPSCOTT on YouTube and TikTok retired army officer with extensive knowledge of he area
And Malcontent on TikTok
All three give very balanced reports

[Tomconroy]

7. I think the Russians emptied out the area around Kherson to support

the offensive in Donbas and Ukraine decided to hit them where they ain't.
I read all the discouraging posts about the Donbas last week but Prof OBrien and the anonymous briefer in the Pentagon never bought into the pessimism. And I figured the Ukraine generals knew what they were doing by choosing to stay in Severadonetsk.
Fingers crossed!

[mitch96]

8. Another point of view about whats going on and What about them MIG 29's UKR wanted?

From the Daily KOS
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/5/28/2101011/-Ukraine-Update-Western-artillery-is-already-impacting-the-Battle-of-Donbas-and-more-is-on-the-way

"Ukraine suddenly appears to have dozens of MiG-29s in the air. The official explanation is that western allies sent “spare parts” to repair MiGs destroyed during Russia’s initial bombardment of Ukrainian airfields wink-wink. Between Poland, Bulgaria, and Slovakia, there were 55 potential MiG-29s for Ukraine, though many of those were reportedly not in airworthy condition. Would be nothing to disassemble them into “spare parts” to reassemble back in Ukraine. In fact, I’d bet on it. "
"One last bit of circumstantial evidence—when was the last time Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy or anyone else begged the West for MiG-29s? In fact, the last few weeks have all been about MLRS, MLRS, MLRS. Odds are good allies have emptied their stocks of Soviet-era aircraft for Ukraine, so it can now focus on other needs."

I have a funny feeling the boys with the three letter acronyms had their hand in this.YMMV
m

[PortTack]

12. Interesting...I noticed too reading updates there seemed to be more stories of UKR MIG-29s

Knocking russian aircraft out of the sky.

Slava Ukraine!!

[PortTack]

11. Thx for the input! The Ukrainian forces seem to be reading the battlefield very astutely

Althou I was worried last week too thinking they were going to be encircled, this week or the last couple of days seems to be an entirely different story.

I did hear President Zelensky say if they can drive the Russians back to their pre 2/24 position, they will be forced back to the negotiating table..this time for real.