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TheProle

(2,094 posts)
Sun Jun 19, 2022, 10:09 PM Jun 2022

YouGov Poll: Most Americans Don't Want Biden or Trump to Run Again

On the question regarding should former President Donald Trump run for President in 2024, 55 percent of people said no while 31 percent said yes.

When broken down into political affiliations, 80 percent of Democrats voted no while 14 percent of Democrats voted yes.



When asked whether Biden should run again for President in 2024, 64 percent of people said no while 21 percent said yes.

When broken down into political affiliations, 36 percent of Democrats said no while 43 percent of Democrats said yes.
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YouGov Poll: Most Americans Don't Want Biden or Trump to Run Again (Original Post) TheProle Jun 2022 OP
Suggestions? cilla4progress Jun 2022 #1
Barack Hussein Obama In It to Win It Jun 2022 #6
Michelle Obama? TheBlackAdder Jun 2022 #72
Damn the torpedoes! peppertree Jun 2022 #10
Johnson chose not to run and we got Nixon Walleye Jun 2022 #16
Exactamundo peppertree Jun 2022 #18
Yeah but it took RFK's death to make that possible. wnylib Jun 2022 #20
Probably. But we will never know. And we don't know what's gonna happen this time either Walleye Jun 2022 #21
No. I don't think so. And we don't have a Kennedy who could win. We have no candidate other Demsrule86 Jun 2022 #54
?? Who suggested that a Kennedy, or wnylib Jun 2022 #60
Multiple folks on the thread have. My Point is that incumbents generally win. Demsrule86 Jun 2022 #62
We got Nixon because the 1968 Chicago convention tore the party apart. former9thward Jun 2022 #31
Yes that and the horrible Vietnam war situation Walleye Jun 2022 #39
We have 2 MORE YEARS of Biden AntiFascist Jun 2022 #24
Hear, hear! peppertree Jun 2022 #27
PLUS he has done an incredible job of countering Vladimir Putin... AntiFascist Jun 2022 #29
For geopolitical reasons too - absolutely peppertree Jun 2022 #33
Republicans (in general) realize that they are becoming a minority... AntiFascist Jun 2022 #50
Problem is the primary timing madville Jun 2022 #34
Perish the thought! peppertree Jun 2022 #40
I don't see why candidates need to be tied to Biden... AntiFascist Jun 2022 #52
Candidates are absolutely tied to Biden's decision madville Jun 2022 #70
Exactly J_William_Ryan Jun 2022 #37
+1 peppertree Jun 2022 #41
Biden runs or we lose.it is that simple. Demsrule86 Jun 2022 #53
Elections rso Jun 2022 #2
I like her and would back her if she ran, but wnylib Jun 2022 #23
Gavin Newsom? cilla4progress Jun 2022 #45
Newsome, maybe. wnylib Jun 2022 #51
Newsom rso Jun 2022 #68
Newsom rso Jun 2022 #69
She's less popular than Biden right now Polybius Jun 2022 #36
She will not win important states... Demsrule86 Jun 2022 #55
From my earliest memories, the torch has been passed to a new generation . . . Journeyman Jun 2022 #3
We better just consider we need a Democrat to win and look carefully at the electoral map. Demsrule86 Jun 2022 #56
The 2024 election is going to be Haggard Celine Jun 2022 #4
I agree with all of that. Scrivener7 Jun 2022 #7
I also don't think In It to Win It Jun 2022 #14
True. Haggard Celine Jun 2022 #47
I think the GOP will be split between Desantis (probably their best shot) NYC Liberal Jun 2022 #17
I still can't see how tRump runs. Just not seeing it at all. LenaBaby61 Jun 2022 #43
The GQP will have a real dilemma because even if he doesn't, NYC Liberal Jun 2022 #59
That would be awesome! Haggard Celine Jun 2022 #48
His health will start really deteriorating soon, if hasn't already. LenaBaby61 Jun 2022 #64
It should. Haggard Celine Jun 2022 #65
Pres. Biden . . .. Lovie777 Jun 2022 #5
Totally agree PortTack Jun 2022 #8
Message auto-removed Name removed Jun 2022 #9
I would love Pete! - only if Biden doesn't run. But I moonscape Jun 2022 #38
let's hope this is an outlier from hell (21% yes, Biden should run again, only 43% Dems yes) yikes Celerity Jun 2022 #11
Isn't YouGov one of those "online polls?" PSPS Jun 2022 #12
Online polls are often just as accurate as other types, they are not some 'mash a button Celerity Jun 2022 #26
Yes, it's a wreck of a poll. No biggie. LenaBaby61 Jun 2022 #44
Are there any youngish charasmatic southern governors? Poiuyt Jun 2022 #13
Ever since Clinton the Republicans have thought a southern governor is a way to go. I don't think so Walleye Jun 2022 #19
1 atm, Andy Beshear of KY, & 2 if Stacey Abrams wins GA. Roy Cooper of NC is not young (71 in 2028) Celerity Jun 2022 #30
Just DeSantis Polybius Jun 2022 #35
No and how does a Southern governor win the rustbelt? Most southern governors are GOP too. Demsrule86 Jun 2022 #57
hopefully Beto, soon Skittles Jun 2022 #63
here is the poll link Celerity Jun 2022 #15
Joe Biden will do what he deems is best for our country Walleye Jun 2022 #22
The best thing Biden can do for our country (and the world) is to run again and to win again. Just A Box Of Rain Jun 2022 #25
Wow iemanja Jun 2022 #28
Not really .... LenaBaby61 Jun 2022 #61
So even more people don't want Biden to run than Trump Polybius Jun 2022 #32
Two posts of similar polls within a short time DFW Jun 2022 #67
They might not even have to cheat Polybius Jun 2022 #73
Biden is the only chance Democrats have in 2024. Beautiful Disaster Jun 2022 #42
I'm noticing that type of push back with the Democrats that I know ecstatic Jun 2022 #46
And. If Democrats don't vote for the Dem. nominee no matter what, we are going to lose. The fact Demsrule86 Jun 2022 #58
Biden/Harris or if either or both decide not to run Samrob Jun 2022 #49
This is the second post of a similar poll within a week. DFW Jun 2022 #66
Some are trying to hammer in a point , but I don't think the OP is. Autumn Jun 2022 #74
The point for me TheProle Jun 2022 #75
Absent any major health issues, President Biden is, by far, our strongest candidate for 2024. dawg Jun 2022 #71
Political polling works against democracy gulliver Jun 2022 #76

peppertree

(21,526 posts)
10. Damn the torpedoes!
Sun Jun 19, 2022, 10:32 PM
Jun 2022

Full speed ahead with Joe Biden.

Whatever his disadvantages, he's both our President and standard-bearer - and, short of a catastrophic health event, the idea of his opting out of seeking re-election should be anathema to all Democrats.

Because if he doesn't run, the reason/s won't matter in the least: it'll be a sitting president bowing out - presumably (in the public's eye) because he "can't win."

Perish the thought, I say.

wnylib

(21,146 posts)
20. Yeah but it took RFK's death to make that possible.
Sun Jun 19, 2022, 10:58 PM
Jun 2022

Bobby would have won in a landslide if he had lived.

Demsrule86

(68,347 posts)
54. No. I don't think so. And we don't have a Kennedy who could win. We have no candidate other
Mon Jun 20, 2022, 01:32 AM
Jun 2022

than Biden who can win the rustbelt...our only path. Democrats better get behind Biden or it will be worse than 2016.

wnylib

(21,146 posts)
60. ?? Who suggested that a Kennedy, or
Mon Jun 20, 2022, 02:00 AM
Jun 2022

anyone else besides Biden should run?

I only pointed out that Nixon won because his strongest opponent died.

former9thward

(31,801 posts)
31. We got Nixon because the 1968 Chicago convention tore the party apart.
Sun Jun 19, 2022, 11:30 PM
Jun 2022

Johnson not running again was not the real factor.

Walleye

(30,702 posts)
39. Yes that and the horrible Vietnam war situation
Sun Jun 19, 2022, 11:44 PM
Jun 2022

I don’t think the younger people actually understand what really happened at that convention. It was a police riot. They took advantage of our activists and beat the crap out of everybody

peppertree

(21,526 posts)
27. Hear, hear!
Sun Jun 19, 2022, 11:17 PM
Jun 2022

It's frankly upsetting to read of so many Democrats openly voicing "concerns" over President Biden's viability for '24.

This is no time for cold feet - and much less so, as '24 approaches.

That's exactly want Repugs want - because they know that a sitting president's bowing out for any reason short of force majeure spells guaranteed defeat for his party.

Jimmy Carter understood that all too well - and he not only had an even worse situation than Biden does now, but an active Dem insurgency in the form of Ted Kennedy's bid.

And while I'm sure the thought of retiring to his peanut farm must have crossed his mind, as the difficult months of '79 wore on, he knew he had to step up to the plate - and hope against hope.

A captain can't abandon his ship. Besides which, two years is a long time in politics.

AntiFascist

(12,792 posts)
29. PLUS he has done an incredible job of countering Vladimir Putin...
Sun Jun 19, 2022, 11:25 PM
Jun 2022

who has been the real force supporting Trump and the Republicans who support him.

peppertree

(21,526 posts)
33. For geopolitical reasons too - absolutely
Sun Jun 19, 2022, 11:33 PM
Jun 2022

Whatever happened to that, right? Time was when Repugs were "the party of geopolitics and (gulp!) national security."

Now they're just a RICO outfit strip-teasing to the highest bidder. Foreign and domestic.

AntiFascist

(12,792 posts)
50. Republicans (in general) realize that they are becoming a minority...
Mon Jun 20, 2022, 01:19 AM
Jun 2022

and they are desperate to overcome that, including destroying democracy.

madville

(7,397 posts)
34. Problem is the primary timing
Sun Jun 19, 2022, 11:34 PM
Jun 2022

If Biden decides not to run he has to make that decision within the next 6 months. Democratic primary
candidates were mostly declared for the 2020 primary by January and February of 2019 so any potential 2024 candidates need to be organizing and starting their campaign machines by January 2023 at the latest.

peppertree

(21,526 posts)
40. Perish the thought!
Sun Jun 19, 2022, 11:45 PM
Jun 2022

Can you imagine? It'll be Harris (who, let's face it, would herself be a risky choice for the obvious reasons) fending off the 20+ hopefuls that would inevitably announce.

The spectacle would allow Repugs to defuse the issue of what will surely be their clown-car primary ('Look! Dems have one too!').

And made all the worse by the fact there's a sitting Democratic president - sitting the whole thing out!

They would easily be able to deride Biden as a 'modern-day LBJ' - and the voters would go right along.

Short of some small miracle, it would be a guaranteed disaster.

AntiFascist

(12,792 posts)
52. I don't see why candidates need to be tied to Biden...
Mon Jun 20, 2022, 01:28 AM
Jun 2022

ALSO, Biden doesn't need to be a lame duck President if he decides not to run. He can go out as a hero. The US doesn't have to end up in a recession and Russia can very LOSE whatever they are fighting.

madville

(7,397 posts)
70. Candidates are absolutely tied to Biden's decision
Mon Jun 20, 2022, 10:32 AM
Jun 2022

If Biden hasn’t announced that he’s not running in 2024 then no legitimate Democratic primary candidate can form an organization or announce because that creates the appearance that they are trying to primary him at that point.

J_William_Ryan

(1,736 posts)
37. Exactly
Sun Jun 19, 2022, 11:37 PM
Jun 2022

Two years is a long time, a lot can happen.

Remember the early caucuses and primaries in 2020 when everyone was counting Biden out.

rso

(2,261 posts)
2. Elections
Sun Jun 19, 2022, 10:22 PM
Jun 2022

Kamala Harris needs to play a bigger role in order to showcase herself to be the 2024 Candidate.

wnylib

(21,146 posts)
23. I like her and would back her if she ran, but
Sun Jun 19, 2022, 11:04 PM
Jun 2022

I am not confident that she would win unless she chose a running mate with strong, popular name recognition.

But, more likely, she will run as VP again with Biden.





rso

(2,261 posts)
68. Newsom
Mon Jun 20, 2022, 09:05 AM
Jun 2022

Yes, Newsom would be quite a contrast with the obese, feeble Trump, or the obese dwarf DeSantis.

rso

(2,261 posts)
69. Newsom
Mon Jun 20, 2022, 09:10 AM
Jun 2022

Yes, Newsom would be quite a contrast with the obese, feeble Trump, or the obese dwarf DeSantis.

Journeyman

(15,001 posts)
3. From my earliest memories, the torch has been passed to a new generation . . .
Sun Jun 19, 2022, 10:25 PM
Jun 2022

I've looked forward to it happening again every quadrennial election. It has happened (not often enough) and I await its next recurrence.

Haggard Celine

(16,820 posts)
4. The 2024 election is going to be
Sun Jun 19, 2022, 10:25 PM
Jun 2022

interesting, especially if Biden bows out. I think the Republicans will run DeSantis. He’s currently the biggest asshole in the party, so that gives him cred with them. It’s going to be tricky for the Democrats. A lot of people will back Kamala Harris, but she isn’t really popular with people who aren’t Democrats. I don’t think 2024 is her year. Maybe make a run later. If Biden runs again, I’m not optimistic about his chances. Things will have to make quite a turnaround to make people forget about the gas.

In It to Win It

(8,140 posts)
14. I also don't think
Sun Jun 19, 2022, 10:41 PM
Jun 2022

Last edited Mon Jun 20, 2022, 08:07 AM - Edit history (1)

2024 is Kamala Harris' year.

Biden has 2.5 more years left. A lot could happen between now and the 2024 election. He may turn out to be in a much stronger position than he is now.

I think people vote on the economy before any other issues. If the economy is doing fine, they are more free to think about and vote on other issues. Inflation, gas prices, and supply chain will have to be under control wayyy before the election, to the point where its not fresh in people's minds. They can't be "hungover" from these issues by the time the 2024 election comes around.

Haggard Celine

(16,820 posts)
47. True.
Mon Jun 20, 2022, 12:45 AM
Jun 2022

Things could turn around. Hopefully the war in Ukraine will end relatively soon. That would help uncomplicate matters. We're supposed to have a lot of hurricanes this year, and people will be judging how those disasters are handled. It could make the price of gas go even higher. Back in 2005, after Katrina, gas went up over $5 a gallon because of damage to oil refineries.

But I'm looking at the negatives, and you're saying let's wait and see. You could be right; things might be right as rain by 2024. I still think it won't be so good. We have so many problems with factionalism in this country, I'm having doubts about whether or not we can continue together. It's going to take more than a patch job this time to heal the sickness in this country. I like Joe Biden a lot. I think he's one of the best men we've ever had in that office. I hope he can bring us back from the brink. But I have grave doubts.

NYC Liberal

(20,132 posts)
17. I think the GOP will be split between Desantis (probably their best shot)
Sun Jun 19, 2022, 10:55 PM
Jun 2022

and Trump. And I predict it will get very nasty. If they do nominate Desantis, Trump runs as an independent and splits the vote, because if he can’t win no Republican should.

NYC Liberal

(20,132 posts)
59. The GQP will have a real dilemma because even if he doesn't,
Mon Jun 20, 2022, 01:52 AM
Jun 2022

I don't believe his cultists will vote for anyone else. They are fanatical. I believe they will write him in if he isn't on the ballot -- in the primaries and the general.

Haggard Celine

(16,820 posts)
48. That would be awesome!
Mon Jun 20, 2022, 12:50 AM
Jun 2022

I hope Trump is so tied up with legal troubles by then that it would make it nearly impossible to run a campaign. He'll do it, though. He's got to. He's in a lot of trouble, and the presidency would give him a get out of jail free card. Plus, he's gotten all these legislatures to change the election rules for him. They're setting it up so that only a Republican can win. He won't be able to resist those odds.

LenaBaby61

(6,965 posts)
64. His health will start really deteriorating soon, if hasn't already.
Mon Jun 20, 2022, 02:52 AM
Jun 2022

He doesn't drink water, he doesn't exercise. He's a junk food eater. Hates vegetables,fruits. What a complete mess. After 70 plus years of physical abuse to his body, on top of the stress he's REALLY about to go through 'some thangs' , I can see him deteriorating rather quickly right before our eyes mentally and physically.

I mean, for God's sake, that thing STILL drinks 12 cans of soda daily I read. His kidneys

Haggard Celine

(16,820 posts)
65. It should.
Mon Jun 20, 2022, 03:47 AM
Jun 2022

But really, he's not exactly human. He's a demon-spawned imitation of a man. His physiology is probably the opposite of ours. He must consume a goodly sum of junk food every day, or he dies.

I jest, but we're dealing with someone who is the very portrait of the seven deadly sins who has conned all of these religious people into supporting him. He's broken just about any law you want name. But he never pays for what he's done. That is formidable, when you think about it. And he's 76, I think, maybe older, and never wanted for anything in his life and never paid any consequences for his actions. That has got to be some kind of record.

People say he's deteriorating, and to an extent that's true, but he is still very dangerous. As narcissistic as he is, he's probably turning himself into a god in his mind. He's the leader of these fanatical people who are not swayed by facts. He isn't done trying to take over the country. That bullshit today with the Texas Republican Party. That was his idea; I know it was. They're rejecting Joe Biden as the legitimate President. They also want a referendum on Texas seceding. This is Crazy Town! These fucking assholes are goingI've thought from the very beginning that Trump's mission was to start another civil war in the U.S. I don't know if the mission was delegated to him by someone else (Putin?) or if it was his personal desire to see the country at war with itself. Every chance he gets, he's an asshole to somebody. He pours gasoline on fires when he can. He oozes strife and division. I have a nagging feeling that if he can get enough support in red states, he'll try to split the country up.

Lovie777

(11,986 posts)
5. Pres. Biden . . ..
Sun Jun 19, 2022, 10:26 PM
Jun 2022

will run and win again. Amercians are being herded like cattle by corporate pollings.

That's my opinion.

Response to TheProle (Original post)

moonscape

(4,664 posts)
38. I would love Pete! - only if Biden doesn't run. But I
Sun Jun 19, 2022, 11:43 PM
Jun 2022

don’t think he would throw his hat in because of Kamala. And as others have said, 024 is nor Kamala’s year.

Celerity

(42,643 posts)
11. let's hope this is an outlier from hell (21% yes, Biden should run again, only 43% Dems yes) yikes
Sun Jun 19, 2022, 10:32 PM
Jun 2022

I want to see what it looks like one month post Roe overturn, if it is overturned.

Celerity

(42,643 posts)
26. Online polls are often just as accurate as other types, they are not some 'mash a button
Sun Jun 19, 2022, 11:14 PM
Jun 2022

as many times as you want' thing at all. They do the same sampling that any reputable poll does, regardless of type.

Some are good, a few are great, some are meh, and a few are shit, just like any other type.

YouGov is a B+ rated poll, and tends to err, when it does, a bit in favour of the Dems, it overvalues us, under predicts Rethugs in terms of final results


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

Walleye

(30,702 posts)
19. Ever since Clinton the Republicans have thought a southern governor is a way to go. I don't think so
Sun Jun 19, 2022, 10:57 PM
Jun 2022

Celerity

(42,643 posts)
30. 1 atm, Andy Beshear of KY, & 2 if Stacey Abrams wins GA. Roy Cooper of NC is not young (71 in 2028)
Sun Jun 19, 2022, 11:26 PM
Jun 2022

John Carney of Delaware (if you count that as Southern) is a year older than Cooper.

John Bel Edwards of Louisiana is WAY too conservative (totally pro-life too) to ever win the Dem Primaries.

That's it for the entire South for Dems.

Demsrule86

(68,347 posts)
57. No and how does a Southern governor win the rustbelt? Most southern governors are GOP too.
Mon Jun 20, 2022, 01:39 AM
Jun 2022

Incumbents have a big advantage...sounds Biden.

 

Just A Box Of Rain

(5,104 posts)
25. The best thing Biden can do for our country (and the world) is to run again and to win again.
Sun Jun 19, 2022, 11:07 PM
Jun 2022

I'm confident that he will do just that.

LenaBaby61

(6,965 posts)
61. Not really ....
Mon Jun 20, 2022, 02:23 AM
Jun 2022

Especially when you see how unaware, intellectually lazy and some folks are just plain dumb, stupid and ignorant and racist on top of all those other things. They don't read, they fall for Faux Noose bull shit. And the phenomenon with young people of all colors who are extremely angry that Biden won't get rid of all of their student loan debt. Let the GQP US Taliban party get back in there then. Those same young folks carping about the fact that Biden didn't pay off every penny of their student loan debt will be ending their lives with NO social security, no health care and NO money. Will have worked from cradle to grave. People have short memory spans--except when it comes to DEMS. Yeah, they forget all about how horrible GQP'ers mangle economies because they can't govern, and then when a Dem gets in they carp about that Dem not fixing their fuck up of the economy fast enough, and people fall for that BS and think that Dems must do something, and do it FAST. Not thinking about how the GQP is nothing but a bunch of obstructing assholes. Finally, we have a so-called liberal press/media that sure isn't liberal but corporate, greedy and moving very far right. Have you seen some of the stupid ass questions the press core asked Jen Pesaki before she left and during her time as spokesperson?

Goodness knows that I've never been a big fan of Krystal Ball, but I saw a tiny segment where SHE of all people had to go step by step and explain to Bill Maher and guest how the GQP trashes out economies. She was right with all she said. The GQP run up HUGE deficits/debts which are passed onto to an incoming Dem administration where the Dems get blamed for all of the out of control spending that the GQP does, or they don't get rid of GQP debt FAST enough. When Dubya was left very nice surplus by Clinton. We all know what happened to that money. 2 wars the US was lied into that we're still paying for, and a huge tax cut by fatso and his GQP minions that we will be paying for also for a long time because it was a mandate that was unfunded. MOST if not all of what Pres. Biden proposed with BBB WAS paid for, and the infrastructure package with jobs et al would have made us money, because this country literally is falling apart from bridges to roads to you name it. But once again the GQP gish-gallop, lie and they have a big weapon in Faux Noose, help from the man from West Virginia and that Rainbow Brite-dressing knock off from Arizona who turn into GQP'ers. Plus the so-called liberal but is not liberal media/press. You still have several great writers/media folks out there who report news accurately and with truth, but not enough of them. But it's Democrat's fault though, because the GQP is stuck on trying to tell people that their 1980's Reaganomics dogs will hunt. IE: Trickle UP spending, because that money never trickled down to anyone who needed it that I could remember.

Polybius

(15,235 posts)
32. So even more people don't want Biden to run than Trump
Sun Jun 19, 2022, 11:31 PM
Jun 2022

There's no way to sugarcoat this, we're fucked.

DFW

(54,050 posts)
67. Two posts of similar polls within a short time
Mon Jun 20, 2022, 07:20 AM
Jun 2022

I don't even know who "yougov" is. It sure isn't "megov."

We're not fucked unless we stand back and let the Republicans cheat their way back into the White House again.

 

Beautiful Disaster

(667 posts)
42. Biden is the only chance Democrats have in 2024.
Mon Jun 20, 2022, 12:29 AM
Jun 2022

Obviously this is my opinion, so not fact but I feel pretty confident in saying it's about as close to fact as you can get.

Democrats would be dumb to give up incumbency. That's literally the only advantage they'll have in 2024 over Republicans. Incumbency is a HUGE advantage for any party. I can't think of one election recently where the incumbent party would have done better if another candidate ran instead - even in elections they lost. Had Trump resigned and Pence ran in 2020, he would have lost by a wider margin than Trump did - probably similar to what McCain saw in 2008. Had any other Republican run in 1992 other than Bush, that election is likely both a popular vote and electoral landslide for Clinton. Even Carter in 1980 probably did better than any other Democrat could do.

Bottom line: if the incumbent is too weak to win the election, no replacing him is going to increase your odds. It just ain't happening.

If Democrats throw away incumbency in 2024, they'll lose.

Incumbency was the only reason Bush and Obama won reelections. Their being a known quality was a huge advantage and made their opponents appear much smaller than if it was a race between two non-incumbents.

THE only way you don't run Biden again is if you have a sure-fire superstar. Someone like Reagan or Obama, or a once in a lifetime candidate, and frankly, there isn't that level of candidate for the Democrats.

It needs to be Biden or Bust. If Democrats were smart, they'd rally behind Biden full-stop. Any wavering is just going to hand fodder to the Republicans.

ecstatic

(32,566 posts)
46. I'm noticing that type of push back with the Democrats that I know
Mon Jun 20, 2022, 12:35 AM
Jun 2022

They don't like Pres Biden. The attacks on his age/cognition have worked, despite my assurances to them. It's in poor taste but maybe we need a clean slate? Beto Booker or Booker Beto?

Demsrule86

(68,347 posts)
58. And. If Democrats don't vote for the Dem. nominee no matter what, we are going to lose. The fact
Mon Jun 20, 2022, 01:42 AM
Jun 2022

that we don't support the party is why we are in this bind. Biden can win the rustbelt. Who else could?

Samrob

(4,298 posts)
49. Biden/Harris or if either or both decide not to run
Mon Jun 20, 2022, 01:14 AM
Jun 2022

Possible candidates: Schiff, Inslee, Booker, Durbin, Yates (Sally),

DFW

(54,050 posts)
66. This is the second post of a similar poll within a week.
Mon Jun 20, 2022, 07:17 AM
Jun 2022

Is someone trying to hammer in a point here?

TheProle

(2,094 posts)
75. The point for me
Mon Jun 20, 2022, 01:43 PM
Jun 2022

Is that we should take in all data on the national mood and trends, factor it into our strategy and ensure we have a plan to retain control of the White House in 2024.


dawg

(10,609 posts)
71. Absent any major health issues, President Biden is, by far, our strongest candidate for 2024.
Mon Jun 20, 2022, 11:02 AM
Jun 2022

The power of incumbency is real.

Most of our strongest contenders had their chance against Biden in 2020. They lost, and none of them have substantially added to their popularity since then.

Do I wish that President Biden were younger? Of course I do. I wish for lots of things.

But you fight the war with the army you have, not the army you wish you had. It's a long time until 2024, and the situation on the ground could be very different by then.



gulliver

(13,142 posts)
76. Political polling works against democracy
Mon Jun 20, 2022, 02:42 PM
Jun 2022

1) Some Dems are foolish and disloyal and would actually tell a pollster they don't want Biden to run. They're perhaps flattered that someone is asking their opinion, so they don't stop to think how dumb it is to give it.

2) Republicans, based on their well-documented support for obvious liars, are likely to lie to pollsters to bolster their Party and themselves. They are both cleverly immoral and loyal (in the sense of mafia-like loyalty to a don)

3) Polls can distort democracy in other ways. My theory is that they create an equilibrium effect. If the Dems get under 50%, they react and work to do popular things and emphasize popular policies. Once they get to 50%, they start to relax talking about popular policies, while unpopular policies and ideas start to see an opportunity to jump on the "winning" bandwagon. As Dem popularity surges to 55% and 60%, the effect continues. Unpopular (in the democratic, majoritarian sense) policies and self-elected "leaders" of those policies begin to dominate the conversation. That, in turn, leads to Dem popularity waning, which, in turn, leads to popular policies becoming more emphasized once again. In other words, Dem popularity gravitates toward 50%. Just a theory.

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