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Fri Aug 5, 2022, 11:16 AM

US regained all the jobs lost during the pandemic

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/04/economy/monthly-jobs-report-preview-july/index.html

this is not a recession!

A "blowout" 528,000 jobs added in July.

5 replies, 895 views

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Reply US regained all the jobs lost during the pandemic (Original post)
question everything Friday OP
onecaliberal Friday #1
CJW Friday #2
progree Friday #3
question everything Friday #4
progree Friday #5

Response to question everything (Original post)

Fri Aug 5, 2022, 11:23 AM

1. Hell yes!!! The traitor media and pukes can't wish a recession into reality.

THANK YOU, PRESIDENT BIDEN.

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Response to question everything (Original post)

Fri Aug 5, 2022, 12:31 PM

2. good

ZZZ

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Response to question everything (Original post)

Fri Aug 5, 2022, 03:28 PM

3. The next milestone is stopping the drop in real wages

Real (meaning inflation adjusted) Weekly Earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory Workers
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000031

This will be updated on Wednesday, August 10 830 AM ET when the CPI report comes out.

Nominal: Not inflation-adjusted:
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000030
This increased by 0.40% between June and July, so if the CPI comes in at higher than that, it will be a further drop in real wages. OTOH, the CPI could come in lower than that, given the drop in energy prices in the past 1 1/2 months or so. That would result in an upturn in real wages.

See Paul Krugman Op-Ed on expected decreases in inflation: https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=2952210

One problem with both these series is that they don't adjust for the kinds of workers that are losing or gaining jobs --

From: https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/us-wages-grew-fastest-pace-decades-2021-prices-grew-even-more
The BLS releases ECI statistics (Employment Cost Index), showing compensation, wage, and benefit growth over the prior three months, four times a year. The ECI shows changes in wages and benefits in a manner that fixes the composition of the workforce. This is important, particularly when there are large changes in employment, because these data are not subject to the same distortions as the monthly average hourly earnings series, which can artificially be increased when low-wage workers lose their jobs and drop out of the sample (as happened in 2020) or artificially be decreased when these same workers are hired back (as happened in 2021) [1].

By fixing workforce composition, the ECI provides a more accurate picture of what is actually happening to wages.


Unfortunately, that report showed a drop of constant dollar (meaning inflation-adjusted) ECI in June (the latest) of minus 3.6% compared to 12 months ago. (compensation: -3.6%, wages: -3.5%, benefits: -3.9%)

# http://www.bls.gov/news.release/eci.nr0.htm -- See table A, top 3 rows, far right column
# ECI website - https://www.bls.gov/ect/
# http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/eci.pdf - lots of graphs

Another unfortunate, is that we won't see another update of this until late October.

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Response to progree (Reply #3)

Fri Aug 5, 2022, 04:45 PM

4. I think that most workers in the past 30-40 years fave never seen their wages

and salaries keeping up with inflation. Perhaps because inflation was not that obvious those years.

I think that the post 2008 recovery did not generate many jobs. Wasn't it called "the jobless recovery?"

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Response to question everything (Reply #4)

Fri Aug 5, 2022, 05:47 PM

5. Wages, job growth...

Last edited Fri Aug 5, 2022, 09:38 PM - Edit history (1)

According to this, there has been a steady increase (save for a couple flat spots) in inflation-adjusted wages since the mid-90's, so last 30 years almost. (And other than the pandemic era where it jumped with all the layoffs due to mostly lower wage workers being laid off, and has been trending down since with the rehiring of them -- but still slightly higher than pre-pandemic!).

But that was after falling since 1973 until 1996.

Real (meaning inflation adjusted) Weekly Earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory Workers
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000031
(set the beginning time to say 1970 or before).

I think that the post 2008 recovery did not generate many jobs. Wasn't it called "the jobless recovery?"


I hadn't heard that before, other than from Romney in 2012, and Trump in 2015-16, and assorted repukes. But it was the slowest post WW-II job recovery, and the media spared no opportunity in mentioning it.

# Nonfarm Employment (Establishment Survey,
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001
I set the from year to 1980 on this one.
Monthly changes (in thousands): https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth

Jobs fell during the housing bubble crash until February 2010, and then grew steadily since then (until the pandemic). But nowhere near as fast as what we've experienced since the pandemic bottom of April 2020.

I post links to key data in every LBN jobs report posting (the ones that come out the first Friday of every month, or the 2nd Friday occasionally), so that people can see the data for themselves, rather than rely on media characterizations and message board rando postings.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142951997#post2

Also all that is also in the link in my sigline
http://www.democraticunderground.com/111622439

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