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kentuck

(110,947 posts)
Sat Jan 21, 2023, 09:55 AM Jan 2023

Two years from today, who will have been sworn in as the new President?

What are the odds that Donald Trump will be the new President two years from today?

The election of 2020 gave the people one last chance to save their democracy. It is unlikely that the next Democrat will get the total votes that Joe Biden received in 2020. Unforeseen circumstances created conditions for a large turnout, with the effects of the Covid epidemic, the drive-thru voting, the drop boxes, the huge mail-in voting campaign. It is unlikely to happen again, in my opinion.

How important will the next election be for the survival of our democracy?

Will we blow the chance we have been given?

48 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Two years from today, who will have been sworn in as the new President? (Original Post) kentuck Jan 2023 OP
Hoping, praying and will work for it to be Joe Biden. lark Jan 2023 #1
IF he wants to run again, but he's done 8 years worth of work in 2 TigressDem Jan 2023 #3
Joe Biden is running. Kamala won't win Demsrule86 Jan 2023 #15
NOT tRUMP. He will be in jail. TigressDem Jan 2023 #2
No to Hillary. She would not win. Demsrule86 Jan 2023 #14
Technically, she already did. TigressDem Jan 2023 #35
No she didn't which is why we had Trump. Demsrule86 Jan 2023 #36
Kamala Harris if Joe drops out. Emile Jan 2023 #4
I hope the administration can put more light on VP Harris. Hope22 Jan 2023 #5
No need for the next election. Biden will be Demsrule86 Jan 2023 #12
Who would be the best candidate if Biden doesn't run? Polybius Jan 2023 #17
Seriously, we don't have one. I see no other Demsrule86 Jan 2023 #37
Well, there's a good chance she may have to fill his shoes at some point. Hope22 Jan 2023 #19
I wish with all my heart that we could elect Demsrule86 Jan 2023 #38
I wish she was more out front. Hope22 Jan 2023 #47
I really like VP Harris bot not next time. Demsrule86 Jan 2023 #13
No thanks Polybius Jan 2023 #16
Newsom would go down in flames. Demsrule86 Jan 2023 #39
No thanks, I'll pass. nt Raine Jan 2023 #31
Joseph R. Biden. Meadowoak Jan 2023 #6
Yes! peggysue2 Jan 2023 #7
There can be many important political happenings nevergiveup Jan 2023 #8
Biden Demsrule86 Jan 2023 #11
Does Joe Biden count as "new?" Because it will be Joe Biden. Just A Box Of Rain Jan 2023 #9
Biden Demsrule86 Jan 2023 #10
I don't worry about Trump. He's over, he just doesn't know it yet. BannonsLiver Jan 2023 #18
Joe Biden Hekate Jan 2023 #20
Don't listen to the fake phony polls that messed up the midterms. lees1975 Jan 2023 #21
Just like the Dems won the House in a landslide iemanja Jan 2023 #22
You mean just like the red wave resulting in massive Democratic losses in the House and Senate? W_HAMILTON Jan 2023 #24
The polling aggregators got it reasonably right iemanja Jan 2023 #26
Wrong. W_HAMILTON Jan 2023 #29
I accurately described the odds on 538 iemanja Jan 2023 #30
I suggest you check out the history books Demsrule86 Jan 2023 #40
9 seats is the Republican majority, not 4 iemanja Jan 2023 #44
Especially the DeSantis polls. Mr.Bill Jan 2023 #32
Biden kicked MAGA ass twice now (2020 and 2022) and yet you still doubt him? W_HAMILTON Jan 2023 #23
Some never liked him and keep throwing Demsrule86 Jan 2023 #41
What are the odds that Donald Trump will be in the slammer two years from today? Trueblue1968 Jan 2023 #25
This can only be answered with a prediction, obviously DFW Jan 2023 #27
My gut feeling is that it won't be Biden Poiuyt Jan 2023 #28
No, that you mention would win in 24 IMHO Demsrule86 Jan 2023 #42
President Bernie Sanders. Yay !! Finally. BunkieBandit Jan 2023 #33
A few scenarios: Polybius Jan 2023 #34
De Santis won't play national with his behavior in Florida Demsrule86 Jan 2023 #43
Biden will be re-elected handily. maxsolomon Jan 2023 #45
no Democrat should go into an election worrying over whether they will 'blow it' bigtree Jan 2023 #46
This message was self-deleted by its author liberaltrucker Jan 2023 #48

lark

(22,993 posts)
1. Hoping, praying and will work for it to be Joe Biden.
Sat Jan 21, 2023, 10:01 AM
Jan 2023

Garland could fuck us over by not indicting the orange anus, but think Joe will win regardless. Death Sentence will not wear well on the American public, he's too think skinned and belligerent and goes off the rails way too easy. He's tfg with no charm or ability to manipulate.

TigressDem

(5,121 posts)
3. IF he wants to run again, but he's done 8 years worth of work in 2
Sat Jan 21, 2023, 10:05 AM
Jan 2023

I think if we manage to put tRUMP in jail, he might hand the torch to Kamala.

Or maybe Hillary might run. She DID get the most popular votes in 2016. Correct one more wrong that tRUMP did to US.

TigressDem

(5,121 posts)
2. NOT tRUMP. He will be in jail.
Sat Jan 21, 2023, 10:02 AM
Jan 2023

Kamala or Hillary maybe.....
Since Hillary won popular vote in 2016 and has faced tRUMP in court and won against his allegations ... with women mad as hell about ROE being overturned, a female for President will be a historic draw.

Someone who can run against DeSatan.


TigressDem

(5,121 posts)
35. Technically, she already did.
Sun Jan 22, 2023, 11:00 PM
Jan 2023

tRUMP was just effective in getting the electoral college votes in 2016.

With all the hoopla about the emails they could cast shade and it worked.

She would be (and Bill in the shadows with a word of advise here or there couldn't hurt.)

Demsrule86

(68,347 posts)
36. No she didn't which is why we had Trump.
Tue Jan 24, 2023, 12:01 PM
Jan 2023

You have to win the electoral college. Biden will run and win.

Hope22

(1,637 posts)
5. I hope the administration can put more light on VP Harris.
Sat Jan 21, 2023, 10:38 AM
Jan 2023

It is going to take a lot to sell her as a serious candidate. Don’t get me wrong I see her working on the border issues and making speeches about calendar events but if you don’t look you don’t see it and lazy American voters have know clue. We can’t start from square one and win.

Polybius

(15,235 posts)
17. Who would be the best candidate if Biden doesn't run?
Sat Jan 21, 2023, 03:57 PM
Jan 2023

I'm sure he will, but there's always a chance.

Demsrule86

(68,347 posts)
37. Seriously, we don't have one. I see no other
Tue Jan 24, 2023, 12:03 PM
Jan 2023

candidate who can win the rust belt states which makes it crucial that Biden run.

Hope22

(1,637 posts)
19. Well, there's a good chance she may have to fill his shoes at some point.
Sat Jan 21, 2023, 06:13 PM
Jan 2023

Voters look to the Vice Presidential candidate, especially when the presidential candidate will pass 80 years in office. We can’t underestimate that situation. We need to be ahead of the game with opposition such as we have. Dirt, lies, nothing is beneath them!

Demsrule86

(68,347 posts)
38. I wish with all my heart that we could elect
Tue Jan 24, 2023, 12:05 PM
Jan 2023

Kamala or any woman, I just don’t think we can at the moment. And Kamala won’t win crucial rust belt states.

Hope22

(1,637 posts)
47. I wish she was more out front.
Tue Jan 24, 2023, 03:01 PM
Jan 2023

For a while she was working on immigration with the countries of origin but I haven’t heard anything about that for over a year. They need to give her more exposure if they want to keep the same ticket next time around. I feel like her husband gets more/better press than she does!

Demsrule86

(68,347 posts)
39. Newsom would go down in flames.
Tue Jan 24, 2023, 12:09 PM
Jan 2023

He can’t win the rust belt. He is from California and would be painted as a tax and spend liberal. We would be lucky to win Virginia. We wouldn’t win Michigan or the other rust belt states. I like Newsom but he won’t be president until and unless we change hearts and minds.

peggysue2

(10,811 posts)
7. Yes!
Sat Jan 21, 2023, 12:27 PM
Jan 2023

And the campaign has already begun bc everything happening this year will affect the outcome in 2024. Which is why we're seeing and hearing The Crazy gearing up, the preparation to throw everything against the wall, regardless of how stupid, with the hope of something sticking to erode Joe Biden's rising approval numbers.

Worked with Hillary. Now it's Joe's turn.

Of course, the reverse is also true--the more blatant, the more obvious The Crazy is to the public, the less likely the performance art will be effective.

Because Dems, Indies and still rational Republicans have seen this picture show before.

An anecdotal example is an appt. my husband had with his podiatrist, a life-long Republican. The man could not hide his complete disgust with the House Republican's utter chaos and conspiracy insanity on top of the January 6th Committee's investigation results. The idea that someone like MTG and her former sidekick Boebert or the likes of Gosar would be elevated to the Oversight & Accountability Committee was a sick, deranged joke, the doctor ranted. Add in George Santos for the perfect end note.

Biden has the advantage this time out. What was once new and shocking is old and depraved on this round.

Joe Biden for the win!

nevergiveup

(4,744 posts)
8. There can be many important political happenings
Sat Jan 21, 2023, 12:44 PM
Jan 2023

between now and then. None of us really have a clue. The one thing I worry about is a full scale recession. If that happens it will be touch and go.

BannonsLiver

(16,161 posts)
18. I don't worry about Trump. He's over, he just doesn't know it yet.
Sat Jan 21, 2023, 04:30 PM
Jan 2023

My fear is about a certain candidate who is a very skilled operator (unlike Dump) and who the national political media will be falling all over themselves to normalize in the coming months, but is infinitely more evil, authoritarian and ruthless than Trump.

I have no idea who will be sworn in on January 20, 2025. If it’s not Joe Biden or some other Dem this country is fucked 7 ways to Sunday.

lees1975

(3,718 posts)
21. Don't listen to the fake phony polls that messed up the midterms.
Sat Jan 21, 2023, 06:19 PM
Jan 2023

It will be whomever the Democrats nominate. In a landslide.

iemanja

(53,001 posts)
26. The polling aggregators got it reasonably right
Sat Jan 21, 2023, 06:30 PM
Jan 2023

They didn't predict a "red wave." That was the media. 538 had the GOP winning the House and the Senate close to a toss-up. That's what happened.

The media always runs their mouth with predictions, and they are almost always wrong. But then so were the posters here who claimed the Dems would win both houses in a landslide. There are no landslides in American politics, so that kind of prediction is inevitably wrong. Races are always tight. People who claim either Dems or Republicans will win in a landslide are only trying to reassure themselves.

W_HAMILTON

(7,813 posts)
29. Wrong.
Sat Jan 21, 2023, 07:00 PM
Jan 2023

The good pollsters got it reasonably right.

The rightwing propaganda pollsters that were flooding """polling aggregators""" before the election to drive the narrative of a red wave got it wrong. BADLY wrong.

Demsrule86

(68,347 posts)
40. I suggest you check out the history books
Tue Jan 24, 2023, 12:13 PM
Jan 2023

and perhaps realize how amazing it is that the red wave was a 4 seat majority which may not even last until 24. New York and California needs some redistributing asap to.

iemanja

(53,001 posts)
44. 9 seats is the Republican majority, not 4
Tue Jan 24, 2023, 12:27 PM
Jan 2023
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections

and I'm glad you're happy with a GOP house. I actually prefer the Democrats control the House and Senate. But that's just me.
I remember when the Democrats actually gained seats in the 1998 elections.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections

DFW

(54,047 posts)
27. This can only be answered with a prediction, obviously
Sat Jan 21, 2023, 06:52 PM
Jan 2023

But, my prediction is that there will not be a "new" presidency, but a continuation of the present one.

Yeah, yeah, he'll be 80-whatever. I just spoke to my dad's cousin and her husband, who live in Washington. She's 91 and he's 95 (looks and sounds at least 20 years younger, scary guy). They still go around the country attending events--he was an old friend of Morris Dees of the Southern Poverty Law Center from decades back. She used to tutor Caroline Kennedy at the White House in 1962, is still active in social causes. At age 80, I'll probably be history, but some people can still handle anything at that age, and so far, it seems to me that Joe Biden has got the genes for it.

Sure, we have people who would be viable and dynamic candidates- Schiff, Swalwell, and Klobuchar immediately come to mind as just three out of several that I think could win the general. But Biden would now bring the same things to the presidency that he brought when he took office two years ago: the experience AND the temperament to do the job (wait for this) CONSERVATIVELY. By that I mean, thinking things out, weighing his options cautiously and realistically, and going for the best possible scenario, given his possibilities. He may not have a long string of stock rhetoric or standard lines he repeats ad nauseam at rallies, but the accomplishments of his administration in the last two years, ESPECIALLY compared with those of the clown who preceded him, speak louder than anything that will be shouted at any rally. Some yell slogans. He quietly DOES stuff.

Poiuyt

(18,087 posts)
28. My gut feeling is that it won't be Biden
Sat Jan 21, 2023, 06:57 PM
Jan 2023

I think too many people will be turned off by his age. It will either be some other Democrat or a Republican. I doubt if it will be Trump or DeSantis, however.

I think Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer, or maybe Roy Cooper from North Carolina would be good prospects. I don't know much about Cooper, but being a southerner would be a big advantage. I don't know if Mayor Pete can win nationally.

Polybius

(15,235 posts)
34. A few scenarios:
Sun Jan 22, 2023, 04:31 PM
Jan 2023

1) If it's Biden vs. Trump, Biden wins again. Perhaps by a larger margin even.

2) If DeSantis beats Trump in the primaries, Trump will run 3rd Party and Biden will win. He will never support Ron, claiming the the primaries were rigged.

3) If Trump is in jail or for whatever reason pulls out of the race and it's Biden vs. DeSantis, then I have no idea. My guess is that it would be close. However, it's too soon.

Demsrule86

(68,347 posts)
43. De Santis won't play national with his behavior in Florida
Tue Jan 24, 2023, 12:19 PM
Jan 2023

and conversely Newsom would be unable to run to the center which is why don’t think he will ever be president-He is a smart guy and all.

maxsolomon

(32,975 posts)
45. Biden will be re-elected handily.
Tue Jan 24, 2023, 12:44 PM
Jan 2023

And there will be full Dem control of congress.

The worst choice the 'Pukes could make would be Trump. Most bourgeoise 'Puke voters are tired of his schtick.

bigtree

(85,915 posts)
46. no Democrat should go into an election worrying over whether they will 'blow it'
Tue Jan 24, 2023, 12:49 PM
Jan 2023

...or project pessimism and cynicism over an election that hasn't even begun.

Nothing about the Democrats in the next election cycle will be as apathetic as this query.

Response to kentuck (Original post)

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