Opposition strategy re: Walz and Shapiro, got me thinking

[Metaphorical]

Picking up comments from Politico and The Hill, the prevailing sentiment that Shapiro was not chosen has been relief, but its telling as to why.

The thinking here is that Shapiro would likely have been seen as a centrist Democrat that would have broader appeal to conservatives, while Walz is seen as more progressive. A Harris/Shapiro ticket then would have peeled away independents and moderates.

However, I think that Trump and his handlers may have made a serious miscalculation, and it comes largely from not understanding Midwesterners.

I grew up in Illinois, went to college there before coming out to Washington, and come from farmers on both sides. Farmers understand farmers. A high school football coach is a big thing, especially one that led a rural school team to the championships. It's a big touchstone. So many people in the midwest feel like they've been abandoned by the Democratic party, even as they've watched the big corporations buy up their land and wipe out a lot of the smaller towns in the process. They are generally very focused on family, on kids, on little league, and homecomings, and real food. Religion is important, yes, but I also think there is a yearning for something that isn't so partisan, that provides an off-ramp to all the hate that seems to be coming from the increasingly corporate pastors that they're getting.

When my grandfather passed away, the new (and very slick) pastor that they had talked about how he was now in heaven, driving Cadillacs and sipping champaigne. I heard my grandmother grumble afterward, "Stupid fool - Barney wouldn't have driven a Cadillac if someone paid him to."

I understand the small Congregationalist church fired him not that long afterwards.

Tim Walz is going to appeal to a lot of those folks in a way that no one has in ages.

[Wicked Blue]

1. K&R

[Irish_Dem]

2. No one is more midwest than Walz.

Small town farmer, teacher, coach, veteran.

If Hollywood had to invent a midwesterner, Walz would be it.

[SharonClark]

3. Well, hell, I'm a midwesterner.

Dems didn't abandon rural america. Their evangelical churches and right-wing talk radio have convinced many of them that the culture wars are more important than their own common sense and sense of community.

[Renew Deal]

4. I think Walz can peel men from Trump

Because he might make Kamala a "safe" choice. Walz is plain spoken and relatable. He's not some policy wonk, aloof, or from the educational elite. In fact, Vance is the egg head that doesn't understand regular people.

In my opinion, Trump is at serious risk of getting blown out in this election.

[Doodles]

5. Small town

I can completely relate to this since I grew up on a farm outside of a small town in western Iowa. The high school, coaches, homecomings, church, etc. was the heart and soul of a small town. Girls’ basketball championships from more than a half century ago were still revered. And yes, large corporations have definitely changed the landscape—literally. It’s quite sad.

[Abolishinist]

6. Having left the Midwest many decades ago, my

familiarity with their residents now is what I see on the TV. My personal choice was Shapiro, but after watching Walz even prior to being selected, I had this sense that he will have a certain appeal to at least some of them.

The reason? Again, not based on anything formal, but I believe 'they' are completely turned off by the 'intellectual' class. A string of polysyllabic words strung together over a dozen sentences without pause is too much for them. Whereas I would enjoy watching Christopher Hitchens debate Dinesh D'Souza over the existence of doG, they'd rather watch one of those sports arena 'competitions' where jumbo trucks with huge tires are trekking around in the mud.

So yeah, Walz just might appeal to enough of them to make a difference.

[ms liberty]

7. I'm in rural NC. It's much the same here. He's a rural guy, he's for real and it shows

I think we're going to win NC, and I think Walz is going to get us there.

Please Democratic Party, bring Walz here a few times and let him loose on Mark Robinson!

[TheKentuckian]

8. Hopefully so but his last election doesn't back this idea very strongly

Based on the returns his appeal to rural voters in Minnesota at least for his reelection was statistically about the same as Biden's in 2020.

The good news is he is an extremely effective communicator all around.

[Metaphorical]

9. Possibly, though there are a number of different factors here:

The 2024 is not going to be a repeat of the 2020 election. First, I think there's Trump fatigue - I just don't see as much support for him as I did in 2020, the age issue is going to bite him big, the convictions are going to have a bigger impact, and the simple fact that he is no longer president is going to all be a big factor. Vance is going to do him very little good in that demographic. I also think that Fox is having a hard time getting excited about him this time around, and that's going to have an impact.

[Sky Jewels]

10. Walz will energize the base and Gen Z

That’s the way to win, not trying to appeal to fickle undecided centrists.