Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News Editorials & Other Articles General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

Dennis Donovan

(26,170 posts)
Sun Oct 6, 2024, 12:03 PM Oct 6

NYT: How One Polling Decision Is Leading to Two Distinct Stories of the Election

Greg Dworkin
I am so glad Nate Cohn wrote this

Like his inclusion of Patrick Murray, it's so refreshing to speak with honest pollsters who just want to get it right.

That includes how polls can miss, how pollsters don't want them to, and what steps you might take to prevent it.

Nate Cohn
3h
How One Polling Decision Is Leading to Two Distinct Stories of the Election
https://nytimes.com/2024/10/06/upshot/polling-methods-election.html (archived: https://archive.ph/hH7fa )


Greg Dworkin
It makes you trust the pollsters *without* blindly trusting the polls.

I and a few other observers think it's closer to a 2022 environment than 2020 and this puts teeth in the argument, but we shall see.

cc
@reesetheone1
12:48 PM · Oct 6, 2024


NYT (archive) - How One Polling Decision Is Leading to Two Distinct Stories of the Election

A methodological choice has created divergent paths of polling results. Is this election more like 2020 or 2022?

By Nate Cohn
Oct. 6, 2024, 5:03 a.m. ET

Over the last month, one methodological decision seems to have produced two parallel universes of political polling.

In one universe, Kamala Harris leads only narrowly in the national popular vote against Donald J. Trump, even as she holds a discernible edge in the Northern battlegrounds. The numbers look surprisingly similar to the 2022 midterm election.

In the other, Ms. Harris has a clear lead in the national vote, but the battlegrounds are very tight. It’s essentially a repeat of the 2020 election.

This divide is almost entirely explained by whether a pollster uses “weighting on recalled vote,” which means trying to account for how voters say they voted in the last election.

/snip



1 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
NYT: How One Polling Decision Is Leading to Two Distinct Stories of the Election (Original Post) Dennis Donovan Oct 6 OP
The whole "polling" world is taking on a life of it's own... Think. Again. Oct 6 #1

Think. Again.

(18,223 posts)
1. The whole "polling" world is taking on a life of it's own...
Sun Oct 6, 2024, 12:24 PM
Oct 6

The article above mentions "two parallel universes of political polling."

The way I see things, we have reached a point where there are two parallel universes, but one universe is the polling universe, and then there is another, completely separate but parallel universe, which is an actual, real-life election that is going on.

Latest Discussions»General Discussion»NYT: How One Polling Deci...