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Stuart G

(38,359 posts)
Fri Feb 20, 2015, 05:17 PM Feb 2015

Feb 10, 2007, Obama announcment, few thought he had a chance. 20 months ahead of the election

Give or take a month, depending on the count. Few thought he had a chance to get the nomination, yet alone the election. Events happen. Obama has been President for over 6 years going on 7. Some incredible good events have happened and some awful events have occurred. Who knew all of this would or could happen?

Therefore, it is still 19 months away from the 2016 election. Yes, Hillary looks very strong at this point. But a whole lot can happen in 19 months. Let us keep that in mind.

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Feb 10, 2007, Obama announcment, few thought he had a chance. 20 months ahead of the election (Original Post) Stuart G Feb 2015 OP
The clock is certainly ticking... Agschmid Feb 2015 #1
This is naive JI7 Feb 2015 #2
I do not think that is true. Stuart G Feb 2015 #3
He already had a campaign machine in place when he announced. MohRokTah Feb 2015 #5
While what you have written may be true, I still believe 16 months from nomination is a long way.. Stuart G Feb 2015 #9
It's all about the money, and only Hillary has it. MohRokTah Feb 2015 #10
I knew he was the next President when he gave the keynote speech at the convention. alphafemale Feb 2015 #6
I watched that speech with my mother. MohRokTah Feb 2015 #11
People might have thought he wouldn't win - but he had structure. Drunken Irishman Feb 2015 #14
it doesn't matter what polls were saying JI7 Feb 2015 #15
Here's the difference... brooklynite Feb 2015 #4
I knew handmade34 Feb 2015 #7
It takes a Barack Obama to make what happened in 2008 happen. MohRokTah Feb 2015 #12
Actually when some heard obnoxiousdrunk Feb 2015 #8
The proper comparison for Hillary 2016 is not Hillary 2008, it's Gore 2000. geek tragedy Feb 2015 #13
i remember. du didnt think he had a chance Liberal_in_LA Feb 2015 #16

Stuart G

(38,359 posts)
3. I do not think that is true.
Fri Feb 20, 2015, 05:25 PM
Feb 2015

I believe most did not think he could win. Obama may have seen the potential, and many thought he might have a chance. But I believe that most did not think he had much of a chance to get the nomination... That is my opinion. I believe it is too early to hand it to Hilary or anyone for that matter.

 

MohRokTah

(15,429 posts)
5. He already had a campaign machine in place when he announced.
Fri Feb 20, 2015, 05:35 PM
Feb 2015

He had people on the ground in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina.

He had an organization working already to take the caucus states in order to run up his delegate count.

David Axelrod had already been on board for months.

There were three serious candidates by February 10, 2007; Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, and Barack Obama. Edwards and Clinton had already announced by this time.

Right now there is a single serious candidate for 2016. Her name is Hillary Clinton. Nobody else has the organization that the three serious candidates in 2008 had by this point in the game.

Stuart G

(38,359 posts)
9. While what you have written may be true, I still believe 16 months from nomination is a long way..
Fri Feb 20, 2015, 05:39 PM
Feb 2015

Much can and does happen. That is what I am saying.

 

MohRokTah

(15,429 posts)
10. It's all about the money, and only Hillary has it.
Fri Feb 20, 2015, 05:42 PM
Feb 2015

Nobody else is anywhere near capable of putting together the campaign cash for a run.

Bottom line, not even Bernie Sanders is a serious candidate as he does not have the national fund raising machine necessary to make a run.

Anything can happen, but nobody else will have the money to go the distance, so it's either Hillary or bust in 2016.

 

MohRokTah

(15,429 posts)
11. I watched that speech with my mother.
Fri Feb 20, 2015, 05:42 PM
Feb 2015

I turned to her and said, "you just listened to a speech by the first African American president."

 

Drunken Irishman

(34,857 posts)
14. People might have thought he wouldn't win - but he had structure.
Fri Feb 20, 2015, 05:53 PM
Feb 2015

He didn't just announce and then build a campaign. He built a campaign and then announced.

Typically, a presidential candidate will go through two or three phases leading up to the primary campaign:

1) They begin an exploratory committee to look into how feasible it is to actually mount a presidential campaign. These candidates in the past have included Evan Bayh and Tom Vilsack in 2008 - who both formed exploratory campaigns before opting not to run.

2) They officially announce their intentions to run.

Obama's official announcement came in 2007, but he had hinted about running for president before then and was building a campaign.

In Oct., 2006, Obama said this on MTP:

"Well, the—that was how I was thinking at that time. And, and, you know, I don’t want to be coy about this, given the responses that I’ve been getting over the last several months, I have thought about the possibility. But I have not thought it—about it with the seriousness and depth that I think is required. My main focus right now is in the ‘06 and making sure that we retake the Congress. After oh—after November 7, I’ll sit down and, and consider, and if at some point, I change my mind, I will make a public announcement and everybody will be able to go at me."


http://www.nbcnews.com/id/15304689/page/3/#.VOesGvnF-So

If a candidate isn't committed to running at this point - they're not running.

JI7

(89,172 posts)
15. it doesn't matter what polls were saying
Fri Feb 20, 2015, 06:21 PM
Feb 2015

Even many who were supporting obama didn't think he would actually win the nomination. They were hoping for vp or after hillary.

But more important was the positive feedback he was getting in his campaigning. And the organisation he had in place.

Ous what Hillary is doing right now. She has not announced but still putting things in place.

No serious candidate only starts with the announcement

Most important was he had people working the ground for him..

brooklynite

(93,834 posts)
4. Here's the difference...
Fri Feb 20, 2015, 05:30 PM
Feb 2015

...By the time Obama announced in 2007, he had spent months lining up the financial support he'd need to get started. Hillary Clinton, through the efforts of her supporters can already count on a huge financial influx. Bernie Sanders hasn't and can't.

handmade34

(22,755 posts)
7. I knew
Fri Feb 20, 2015, 05:37 PM
Feb 2015

I watched this speech in 2004... taped it and showed it to my students the next day only saying, "remember this man"
Yes, anything can happen, but...

obnoxiousdrunk

(2,906 posts)
8. Actually when some heard
Fri Feb 20, 2015, 05:37 PM
Feb 2015

him at the Democratic convention in 2004 they said this guy is going places. I don't think there will be an Obama in our lifetime.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
13. The proper comparison for Hillary 2016 is not Hillary 2008, it's Gore 2000.
Fri Feb 20, 2015, 05:44 PM
Feb 2015

And those who insist that they're going to take their ball and go home if she gets the nominee had better consider that parallel.

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