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AZ Progressive

(3,411 posts)
Sun May 3, 2015, 01:20 PM May 2015

It's Hillary's problem if she can't easily win a primary

I went to a Hillary rally back in 2008. My take was that she seems too much of a politician and lacks a certain authenticity, that back then Obama was able to capitalize on.

Well, not just Obama but Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter were able to win based on a certain authenticity about them. All three had down to earth stories to give as well as an ability to connect when speaking, and they were people who were not entrenched in the beltway (and thus had outsider appeal.)

How the heck can Hillary Clinton look down to earth? She's already so damn rich and in the establishment. She also doesn't have a very good ability to connect. She just seems too much of a politician, too much entrenched in the beltway. She will, like any other establishment candidate, be vulnerable compared to someone who's much more authentic and populist.

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It's Hillary's problem if she can't easily win a primary (Original Post) AZ Progressive May 2015 OP
You think she can't win a primary? MineralMan May 2015 #1
She garnered near 20,000,000 votes and won a myriad of primaries DemocratSinceBirth May 2015 #9
Yes, I know. And that was against Barack Obama. MineralMan May 2015 #13
Obama pioneered the raising of large sums from small donors Gothmog May 2015 #20
I noticed that the goal for the DU fundraising drive MineralMan May 2015 #22
It costs money to run field offices and to get out the vote Gothmog May 2015 #25
Thanks for the great description of everything that is wrong onecaliberal May 2015 #58
She will win the primary. leftofcool May 2015 #2
I said "easily win", read the post more closely AZ Progressive May 2015 #14
She will easily win then. leftofcool May 2015 #15
How close do you think Bernie will get in a non-New England primary? Gothmog May 2015 #21
You could ask the same question about New England primaries. MineralMan May 2015 #23
HRC won New Hampshire in 2008 and is likely to win that primary again Gothmog May 2015 #26
I don't think there is any question. She'll win that one, going away. MineralMan May 2015 #30
BTW, I have always admired and liked your GOTV threads Gothmog May 2015 #32
Thanks for that. I'll be writing a lot more of them next year, too. MineralMan May 2015 #34
Same goes for Bernie. n/t Lil Missy May 2015 #3
Hillary is a follower... kentuck May 2015 #4
LOL only since 1968 - DURHAM D May 2015 #10
1968 - 1992 kentuck May 2015 #16
Yes. She did what Tom Daschle begged her to do. DURHAM D May 2015 #19
Exactly! kentuck May 2015 #28
Not at all. DURHAM D May 2015 #43
She was always well liked here in NY. hrmjustin May 2015 #5
And if she does win what will People say JI7 May 2015 #6
Don't know about the people but DURHAM D May 2015 #8
I never blame the voters. morningfog May 2015 #55
Okay but if she loses the general it's our problem. ucrdem May 2015 #7
I like Bernie but he has some issues to overcome as well. redstateblues May 2015 #11
I am in the lower midwest and DURHAM D May 2015 #18
yep. woolldog May 2015 #24
The fact that you continue repeating that bs meme over and over means to me that you rhett o rick May 2015 #40
amen (from an atheist) ret5hd May 2015 #44
I say we give the Republicans what they really want. Blue State Bandit May 2015 #45
There are advantages and disadvantages nyquil_man May 2015 #12
I have no doubt Sec Clinton can win primaries. Obama is quite charming and charismatic HereSince1628 May 2015 #17
So you are obviously of the view that the polls are wrong and most people think as you do still_one May 2015 #27
If Hillary doesn't win the primary Aerows May 2015 #29
Whereas if Bernie doesn't win...it's because "The Party Bosses" wouldn't let him? brooklynite May 2015 #31
That's precisely what you'll hear. NanceGreggs May 2015 #35
If a politician doesn't win Aerows May 2015 #36
Perhaps so... brooklynite May 2015 #47
I will work like all hell Aerows May 2015 #57
Indeed...and Bernie Sanders is not, in my opinion, Barack Obama. brooklynite May 2015 #59
Again Aerows May 2015 #61
Again... brooklynite May 2015 #62
And yet, Hillary Clinton won the AZ Democratic Primary MineralMan May 2015 #33
She don't got no charisma tularetom May 2015 #37
Excellent points, tularetom Aerows May 2015 #39
She's going to easily win the primary...an "easy" win by my definition means she wins all states alcibiades_mystery May 2015 #38
She can't win if she goes negative AgingAmerican May 2015 #41
Oh, I don't know. Obama thought she was likable enough. (n/t) thesquanderer May 2015 #42
BTW everyone, here's some supporting evidence that just came up: AZ Progressive May 2015 #46
Why would you think she can't? She lost the vote against Obama by only a couple points. pnwmom May 2015 #48
Your concern is noted. zappaman May 2015 #49
Bwahahahah L0oniX May 2015 #50
She lost a DU poll that was something like 10 to 1 fadedrose May 2015 #51
You do know that DU does not reflect the entire democratic party Gothmog May 2015 #53
Nope, it's just that DU is not mainstream or representative of most Democratic voters. Beacool May 2015 #60
Primaries won by Clinton in 2008 in non-purple Gothmog May 2015 #52
He has his base, Hillary has her base. Bernie mau be hot to trot and then Thinkingabout May 2015 #54
It is far too early to say sadoldgirl May 2015 #56

MineralMan

(146,192 posts)
1. You think she can't win a primary?
Sun May 3, 2015, 01:24 PM
May 2015

Really? I'd be far more concerned about Senator Sanders winning a primary, and he's definitely going to have to do that very early in the primary season. Winning primaries against Hillary Clinton is going to be a big order, even in states near Vermont, which has its primary on Super Tuesday, March 1. Bernie Sanders is going to have to have already won more than one primary by then. Will he? I don't know yet.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,705 posts)
9. She garnered near 20,000,000 votes and won a myriad of primaries
Sun May 3, 2015, 01:40 PM
May 2015

She garnered near 20,000,000 votes and won a myriad of primaries including CA, FL,NY, OH, PA, and TX.




MineralMan

(146,192 posts)
13. Yes, I know. And that was against Barack Obama.
Sun May 3, 2015, 01:49 PM
May 2015

It wasn't enough, of course, but then, she's not running against a highly charismatic candidate with enormous personal appeal this time. Senator Sanders has terrific ideas, but he's not Obama as a candidate. More's the pity.

Gothmog

(143,999 posts)
20. Obama pioneered the raising of large sums from small donors
Sun May 3, 2015, 02:24 PM
May 2015

I doubt that Bernie will be able to raise that type of money

MineralMan

(146,192 posts)
22. I noticed that the goal for the DU fundraising drive
Sun May 3, 2015, 02:31 PM
May 2015

for Senator Sanders on Act Blue was set at only $500. I think that got reached after a couple of days. It seemed to me that it should have been set much higher, and should have been met very, very quickly.

I found that interesting. Lots of talk, to be sure, but campaigns run on money. Candidate Sanders did raise $1.5 million in one day at the very beginning. If he did that every day until the election, he'd still be far behind in fundraising, and I don't think it's possible to continue that kind of momentum for long.

Money is going to be a big deal in this primary race. Winning primaries is tough if there's a well-recognized, popular candidate already in the race. As I've said before, this is going to be a hard pull for Bernie Sanders.

Gothmog

(143,999 posts)
25. It costs money to run field offices and to get out the vote
Sun May 3, 2015, 02:38 PM
May 2015

In my county the local county party raised $150,000+ and was still outspend badly by the GOP. In 2008, Obama had a truly amazing ground game and GOTV operations which took money

onecaliberal

(32,483 posts)
58. Thanks for the great description of everything that is wrong
Sun May 3, 2015, 11:46 PM
May 2015

With our system. Senator Sanders actually stands for the people but they can't be bothered to support him because we need to go with a candidate who is for the monied interests in this country. It's sickening.

Gothmog

(143,999 posts)
21. How close do you think Bernie will get in a non-New England primary?
Sun May 3, 2015, 02:28 PM
May 2015

I also think that Hillary Clinton will easily win most of the primaries.

MineralMan

(146,192 posts)
23. You could ask the same question about New England primaries.
Sun May 3, 2015, 02:34 PM
May 2015

It really doesn't make a difference, I think. Vermont might be a fairly easy win for Sanders, but that primary isn't until Super Tuesday. The earliest primaries may well be the hardest for Candidate Sanders. Keep an eye on the Iowa Caucuses. If Sanders doesn't do very well there, he'll be off to a very poor start. I expect Hillary Clinton to work hard in Iowa and build a strong following that will show up to the caucuses and support her.

Watch the size of the rallies before Iowa caucus time and count heads. That will give a hint about the potential results.

Gothmog

(143,999 posts)
26. HRC won New Hampshire in 2008 and is likely to win that primary again
Sun May 3, 2015, 02:44 PM
May 2015

The Iowa caucuses require a ground game and field offices to well on the Democratic side (Santorum won Iowa by living in the state for six months and going to all of the Pizza Planets in the county but I doubt that Sanders will follow that path). This time in 2008, Obama had a number of field offices opened in Iowa. Like you, I expect HRC to organize heavily in the state and to rely on a ground game. Many of the people who won Iowa for Obama are now working for HRC and that makes a difference

MineralMan

(146,192 posts)
30. I don't think there is any question. She'll win that one, going away.
Sun May 3, 2015, 03:00 PM
May 2015

She's very popular in the North East. It's a mistake to think that Sanders will automatically win states near Vermont. Vermont is a strange state, politically. It always has been.

Clinton fans are going to be very loyal, and will show up at primary polling places. Can Sanders build enough grassroots support in all of those early primary states to win? Not easily. He certainly will have supporters in all of them, but whether they can turn out enough voters to get the win is open to question.

Again, DU is not representative of Democratic voters in any state. Not even close. Many active DU members will vote for Sanders, and some will donate to his campaign. How much influence and votes will that create? Not much, realistically. DU is mostly made up of people who like to read and post on a discussion forum. Threads on GOTV sink like stones on DU. I know, because I've written many of them, since that's my primary focus. We're good at talking on DU. I'm not sure how good we are at actually getting votes.

Gothmog

(143,999 posts)
32. BTW, I have always admired and liked your GOTV threads
Sun May 3, 2015, 03:05 PM
May 2015

My passion is election law and those threads are also not popular. My friend, Juanita Jean, calls me a law nerd

MineralMan

(146,192 posts)
34. Thanks for that. I'll be writing a lot more of them next year, too.
Sun May 3, 2015, 03:09 PM
May 2015

If we're going to win against the Republicans, GOTV is how we will do it. If we don't go all out, we may well lose all three branches of government to the Republicans. I'm shocked that people aren't understanding that. We lost the Senate in 2014, due to low turnout. It was embarrassing.

DURHAM D

(32,595 posts)
19. Yes. She did what Tom Daschle begged her to do.
Sun May 3, 2015, 02:05 PM
May 2015

He wanted her vote more than any other Democratic Senator.

DURHAM D

(32,595 posts)
43. Not at all.
Sun May 3, 2015, 04:21 PM
May 2015

True leaders know how/when to work with others, unlike some on this forum and about which I often think... that is the last person in the world I would want to serve on a committee with.

jftr - This is the worst insult/character flaw I can think of.

The world is not black and white and only simple minded people believe it is.

 

morningfog

(18,115 posts)
55. I never blame the voters.
Sun May 3, 2015, 11:16 PM
May 2015

It is up to the candidate to convince the voters they are the best choice. Candidates win or lose based on their ability to make their case.

ucrdem

(15,512 posts)
7. Okay but if she loses the general it's our problem.
Sun May 3, 2015, 01:32 PM
May 2015

And I still don't see how getting attacked from both sides in the run-up is going to help her win in November 2016.

redstateblues

(10,565 posts)
11. I like Bernie but he has some issues to overcome as well.
Sun May 3, 2015, 01:42 PM
May 2015

His support seems a lot like Ron Paul's. A small number of very fervent followers. How many states do you honestly think he'll win? A self described socialist starts in a pretty deep hole- especially here in the south. Obama certainly started with a pretty significant hill to climb but his oratorical skills garnered him a lot of devoted followers. As evidenced by his announcement to run, Bernie is not a galvanizing speaker. Having said that, I'm glad he's running. It's good for the Democratic party.

DURHAM D

(32,595 posts)
18. I am in the lower midwest and
Sun May 3, 2015, 02:02 PM
May 2015

it doesn't seem like anyone knows who he is. Just before his formal announcement I was working on a project with 10-11 other people, mostly women. We were doing physical labor so everyone was chatting and discussing sports, weather, local government, etc. Someone mentioned Bernie and everyone was trying to figure out who he is. I said, he is a Senator from Vermont. This didn't really help anyone focus.

Subsequently I heard the following:

Oh, he is from the east coast.

Is he the guy who is mostly bald?

Is that the guy that gets so excited when he talks?

How old is he?

And finally - Oh, I know, that is the guy who spits when he talks.

At this point everyone was laughing and all the heads were nodding. They have no idea what his views are but they, like about 95% of the votes, will vote on whether or not they "like" him.






 

woolldog

(8,791 posts)
24. yep.
Sun May 3, 2015, 02:36 PM
May 2015

The American people are not going to vote this guy



into the Oval Office. Never mind that he's an avowed socialist.

To think otherwise you need to be completely out of touch with the reality of contemporary American politics.

 

rhett o rick

(55,981 posts)
40. The fact that you continue repeating that bs meme over and over means to me that you
Sun May 3, 2015, 03:39 PM
May 2015

are afraid he might win. You're hoping your chant, "he can't win, he can't win" will somehow make it come true. I think you are going to be surprised at the number of Americans that are looking for an honest candidate. One that isn't owned by Goldman-Sachs and the Wall Street gang.

Blue State Bandit

(2,122 posts)
45. I say we give the Republicans what they really want.
Sun May 3, 2015, 04:45 PM
May 2015

An old white guy!

His "Avowed Socialist" problem may prove easier to overcome than the baggage that comes with Hillary. The republicans have been gearing up to face Hillary for years now. They have been grooming their base for this since 2006. If Bernie were to come out of nowhere, the republicans would be caught with their pants down and their nostrils caked with Koch money. He stripes the youth base out from under them and that's the game.

I'll vote for Hillary if she makes the General, but she ain't getting off that easy.

nyquil_man

(1,443 posts)
12. There are advantages and disadvantages
Sun May 3, 2015, 01:46 PM
May 2015

to being as well-known, for as long, as Clinton. Opinions about her are calcified, particularly among older generations. Whether you've loved her or hated her for the last 25 years (there doesn't seem to be very much in between), it's going to take a lot to change your mind.

This was a problem Bill, Jimmy, and Barack simply didn't have to tackle.

I felt her best, most "down to earth" moments in 2008 came when she was engaged in a real contest; when she was sitting on her laurels, she lost ground. That's why I don't buy into the notion that a competitive primary season will damage her irreparably. She's the clear favorite -- far more than she was in 2008 -- and I don't think a sharpening and honing of her message is going to change that.

HereSince1628

(36,063 posts)
17. I have no doubt Sec Clinton can win primaries. Obama is quite charming and charismatic
Sun May 3, 2015, 01:56 PM
May 2015

Some pundits have argued Sec Clinton lacks charisma, I'm doubt that's true.

Her public face is reported more as a serious person. I don't think that's a bad thing. It certainly would be low on my list of things that could prevent me from voting for a candidate.

No doubt she will certainly be compared to other candidates who will vary in their projection of charisma and charm.

 

Aerows

(39,961 posts)
29. If Hillary doesn't win the primary
Sun May 3, 2015, 02:54 PM
May 2015

it is Hillary's fault, not the people that are wary of her.

I agree 100%.

Do not blame me for not giving her support in the primary. If somehow she wins the primary, I'll support her in the general. You can blame the people that say they wouldn't support her in the general if she loses the general - I'm not one of those people.

brooklynite

(93,851 posts)
31. Whereas if Bernie doesn't win...it's because "The Party Bosses" wouldn't let him?
Sun May 3, 2015, 03:01 PM
May 2015

or..."the MSM" wouldn't cover him?

I've already seen signs that some people here aren't prepared to accept the notion that voters in the real world don't all think the way they do, and that there's any possibility that their candidate could lose.

NanceGreggs

(27,813 posts)
35. That's precisely what you'll hear.
Sun May 3, 2015, 03:10 PM
May 2015

Heard it for years about Kucinich; the PTB wouldn't allow him to win.

His supporters refused to accept the obvious fact that Kucinich didn't have the wide appeal they attributed to him - so they blamed everyone but the candidate himself.

 

Aerows

(39,961 posts)
36. If a politician doesn't win
Sun May 3, 2015, 03:14 PM
May 2015

the votes as a politician, it's the fault of said politician.

I will not be supporting Hillary in the primary. I have every right to support any Democrat I damn well feel like supporting. Whoever wins the Democratic primary will have my vote in the General.

I don't care who thinks so-and-so doesn't vote like I do, because essentially, it is my sole vote. Just mine.

As for:

I've already seen signs that some people here aren't prepared to accept the notion that voters in the real world don't all think the way they do, and that there's any possibility that their candidate could lose.


When you point a finger, remember there are four pointing right back at you.

brooklynite

(93,851 posts)
47. Perhaps so...
Sun May 3, 2015, 09:25 PM
May 2015

.but I won't be blaming anyone but Hillary in the (unlikely) event that she loses (an assessment based on real world data rather than personl feelings). And I'll work like hell to get the nominee electd, whomever it is.

Will you say the same?

 

Aerows

(39,961 posts)
57. I will work like all hell
Sun May 3, 2015, 11:35 PM
May 2015

to get the nominee elected.

You can quote me on that.

I'll remind you though, that there is a reason why President Obama is President, and not President Hillary Clinton.


brooklynite

(93,851 posts)
59. Indeed...and Bernie Sanders is not, in my opinion, Barack Obama.
Sun May 3, 2015, 11:55 PM
May 2015

Barack Obama had the prominence of a Convention Keynote Speech. He had a year's advance planning to secure initial financial and political support. And he was willing to accept contributions from PACs and individuals you consider "tainted" by Wall Street. Add to that, he was a Democrat with mainstream positions, as opposed to someone self-identified as a Socialist.

 

Aerows

(39,961 posts)
61. Again
Mon May 4, 2015, 01:29 AM
May 2015

We have President Barack Obama, not President Hillary Clinton.

She's not the nominee yet, and your support of her is just as valid as my support of any other Democrat.

She's no more entitled to "her turn" than Ann Romney was in taking the White House. Our nation has many challenges, and we deserve the very best Democrat that we can get to lead us. If Hillary is our nominee, I'll give her all of my support; until then, I'll work on getting the Democrat that I feel can best lead us my support.

brooklynite

(93,851 posts)
62. Again...
Mon May 4, 2015, 07:03 AM
May 2015

....I've in no way criticized YOUR support of Bernie Sanders. And again (and again and again), neither I nor anyone else have suggested we should have Primary, or that Hillary Clinton deserves a "coronation".

MineralMan

(146,192 posts)
33. And yet, Hillary Clinton won the AZ Democratic Primary
Sun May 3, 2015, 03:07 PM
May 2015

with a 50.4% majority. Obama got 42%. She got 31 delegates to the national convention. Obama got 25. No other candidate got any delegates. So, maybe you weren't impressed, but Hillary won your state's primary election with a majority of the votes. It's always a mistake to assume that how you feel represents how the majority of voters feels. It's often not true. Here are the primary results from Arizona in 2008:

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/states/AZ.html

Hillary Clinton will win the AZ primary again in 2008, since there's no Barack Obama on the ballot in 2016. Her margin will likely be higher than it was in 2008, too. That's the reality.

tularetom

(23,664 posts)
37. She don't got no charisma
Sun May 3, 2015, 03:25 PM
May 2015

She's pretty bland and lacking in the personal charm that enabled Bill Clinton to bullshit his way out of all the jams his stupidity got him into. Obama has a bit of that charm too plus he has the dignity and grace to take a lot of shit and not get rattled.

Hillary is kind of a crap magnet. Everything her opponents throw at her has a tendency to stick because she appears to take it all so personally. If she doesn't develop the ability to loosen up she'll be a basket case before the primaries arrive.

 

alcibiades_mystery

(36,437 posts)
38. She's going to easily win the primary...an "easy" win by my definition means she wins all states
Sun May 3, 2015, 03:33 PM
May 2015

She will do that. Bernie might could win Vermont if he were still in the race by the time of the Vermont primary.

 

AgingAmerican

(12,958 posts)
41. She can't win if she goes negative
Sun May 3, 2015, 03:46 PM
May 2015

She self destructed against Obama.

She has a chance to win if she runs a positive campaign during the primaries.

AZ Progressive

(3,411 posts)
46. BTW everyone, here's some supporting evidence that just came up:
Sun May 3, 2015, 05:26 PM
May 2015
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/for-clinton-a-trust-deficit-to-surmount/2015/05/03/fbd201ba-f19d-11e4-b2f3-af5479e6bbdd_story.html

A new Associated Press-GfK poll shows that 6 in 10 people (61 percent) said “honest” describes Clinton only slightly well or not at all. Before you argue that those numbers are just recalcitrant Republicans corrupting the sample, chew on these two nuggets: First, 4 in 10 Democrats — yes, Democrats — said “honest” either barely applied to Clinton or didn’t apply at all and, second, 6 in 10 independents said the same about Clinton’s “honesty” problem.


More than 6 in 10 (62 percent) voters said Clinton has “strong leadership qualities.” In that same sample, though, less than 4 in 10 (38 percent) said she was honest and trustworthy. A majority (54 percent) said she is not honest and trustworthy, including 61 percent of independents.

pnwmom

(108,925 posts)
48. Why would you think she can't? She lost the vote against Obama by only a couple points.
Sun May 3, 2015, 09:29 PM
May 2015

And Obama was a much stronger candidate than Sanders at this point.

fadedrose

(10,044 posts)
51. She lost a DU poll that was something like 10 to 1
Sun May 3, 2015, 10:52 PM
May 2015

Are we that strange and out of step?

Where in the heck are they polling those publicized numbers?

Aren't we normal or what?

Gothmog

(143,999 posts)
53. You do know that DU does not reflect the entire democratic party
Sun May 3, 2015, 11:10 PM
May 2015

If DU reflected the Democratic Party, then Dennis Kuicinch would have been the nominee at least once

Beacool

(30,244 posts)
60. Nope, it's just that DU is not mainstream or representative of most Democratic voters.
Mon May 4, 2015, 01:15 AM
May 2015

DU lives in its own little bubble.



Thinkingabout

(30,058 posts)
54. He has his base, Hillary has her base. Bernie mau be hot to trot and then
Sun May 3, 2015, 11:16 PM
May 2015

Fizzle when another couple of candidates enter the race. The Hillary haters will go for someone else and the candidates will divide the votes between themselves.

sadoldgirl

(3,431 posts)
56. It is far too early to say
Sun May 3, 2015, 11:19 PM
May 2015

that she might lose due to lack of this or the other.

Yet, if you go to reddit you will find a lot of young people
very happily welcoming Bernie. Then there are groups
like OWS and PDA, who start working their butts off
to organize for him and to collect money for him. We
don't know where Move-on will go, but he may have the
edge for individual union members.

He got a good start with money collection for the first
24 hours, which may have been only the first and most
hasty rush.

All I say is, don't make the mistake to count him out,
no matter how much some of you would like or on
the other hand dislike to do so.

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