General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsFlorida DUers - what's that I'm hearing about Tropical Storm Colin
From NOAA
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Depression Bonnie, located about 245 miles
north-northwest of Bermuda.
1. Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that a broad
low pressure area is forming over the northwestern Caribbean Sea,
accompanied by thunderstorm activity that is currently poorly
organized. This low is expected to gradually develop further
tonight and Sunday as it moves near or over the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico and into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Subsequently, the low
is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone as it moves
northeastward across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico early
next week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and
flooding are possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula,
western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula during the
next several days. Interests in these areas should monitor the
progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Sunday, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
Forecaster Beven
kentauros
(29,414 posts)Jon Erdman
Published: June 4, 2016
A tropical depression or tropical storm will likely form in the Gulf of Mexico, possibly as soon as later Sunday, bringing a threat of heavy rain to parts of Florida and the Southeast coast Monday and Tuesday.
Clusters of thunderstorms continue to flare up in the western Caribbean Sea, but, as yet, have not consolidated in any one location to help begin the process of lowering surface pressure and forming a tropical cyclone.
Current Satellite, Surface Winds
This is partly due to persistent west winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere flowing atop near-surface easterly winds, providing enough wind shear to prevent thunderstorms from consolidating and persisting, for now.
Current Satellite, Wind Shear
Later this weekend, however, a broad trough of surface low pressure is expected to form in the southern Gulf of Mexico or near the Yucatan Channel, and may give rise to some areas of locally heavy rain in western Cuba, possibly as far west as Cancun and Cozumel, Mexico.
(more at link)
Fuddnik
(8,846 posts)I'm in the Tampa area. Looks like probably a depression or low level storm. But a few years ago, TS Debbie dumped 10 inches of rain in our area. I live across the street from the Anclote River, and it came right up to the top of the sea walls across the street.
malaise
(267,823 posts)Stay safe
GulfCoast66
(11,949 posts)We could use the rain.
Hurricanes suck, but a timely TS can really help end a drought(not that we are in one now)
Warpy
(110,913 posts)Florida and the Caribbean will likely just get rain from the outer bands.
If it crosses the Yucatan and reforms on the other side, the Gulf coast needs to watch it.